In the small West African nation of Guinea-Bissau, a familiar specter has returned: the threat of military intervention in the country’s fragile democracy. On Friday, October 31, 2025, the army announced it had arrested several senior officers accused of plotting to topple the government, an event that has cast a long shadow over the start of the nation’s general election campaign.
The news broke just one day before official campaigning was set to begin for both legislative and presidential elections, scheduled to open on Saturday, November 1. According to the Associated Press, the alleged coup plot involved a number of senior officers who had been reported missing since Monday, October 27. The military’s General Staff released a statement Friday, warning that the episode "jeopardizes the peace and stability so desired for socio-economic development and the attraction of foreign investment."
At the center of the alleged conspiracy is Brigadier General Daba Na Walna (also spelled Nawalna in other reports), the director of a military training school located about 30 kilometers from the capital, Bissau. The armed forces’ statement, echoed by AFP, described how the plot was orchestrated with the support of other generals and senior officers, though officials declined to specify exactly how many individuals were detained or to detail the precise nature of the alleged plot. The lack of transparency has only fueled speculation and anxiety in a country where rumors of coups are never far from the surface.
General Mamadu Ture, the army’s deputy chief of staff, addressed reporters in Bissau on Friday, stating, "This action is aimed to disrupt the electoral process." He declined, however, to provide further details, including the total number of officers arrested. His words underscored the gravity of the timing: the plot, if successful, would have derailed the country’s already contentious transition to the polls.
The political climate in Guinea-Bissau is tense, to put it mildly. President Umaro Sissoco Embaló—who came to power in 2020 after a fiercely contested election—has faced persistent challenges to his authority. This latest alleged coup attempt is the second known plot against him since his inauguration. The controversy over Embaló’s term has only intensified the country’s instability. The opposition argues that his term should have ended on February 27, 2025, but the Supreme Court ruled it should run until September 4. In a move that heightened tensions further, Embaló set the election date for November 30, 2025, insisting that his first term would last until then. The opposition has refused to recognize him as president, deepening the political impasse.
In the wake of the arrests, Embaló issued a stern warning. After a cabinet meeting on Thursday, October 30, he told reporters, "No disorder will be tolerated. The government has taken all necessary measures to ensure the safety of each candidate during this campaign." The president’s remarks, reported by AFP, were a clear signal to both the military and the opposition that any attempt to destabilize the country would be met with forceful resistance.
The timing of the arrests has raised eyebrows both domestically and abroad. With the main opposition party disqualified from the upcoming elections, Embaló is widely seen as the frontrunner—though his mandate is deeply contested. The arrests have occurred at a particularly sensitive moment, with many observers questioning whether the government’s crackdown is a genuine effort to protect democracy or a pretext to suppress dissent and consolidate power.
Guinea-Bissau’s history is littered with coups and attempted coups—a cycle that has repeatedly derailed efforts to build stable, democratic institutions. Since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974, the country has endured more than ten coup attempts, as noted by both the Associated Press and AFP. The military has long maintained a strong influence over national politics, and the line between civilian and military power has often been blurred. In 2022, an attack on the presidential palace—described by Embaló as an attempted coup—left several people dead, a grim reminder of the ever-present risks facing the country’s leadership.
Efforts to break the cycle of instability have met with mixed results. Since the 2014 presidential election, Guinea-Bissau has made halting progress toward consolidating democratic governance and the rule of law. However, the persistence of military influence and the recurrence of coup plots suggest that these gains remain precarious. The armed forces’ own statement on Friday lamented, "This sad episode, which involves some general and senior officers of our Armed Forces, jeopardizes the peace and stability so desired for socio-economic development and the attraction of foreign investment."
The regional context adds another layer of complexity. Across West Africa, military takeovers have surged since 2020, with elected governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Guinea all falling to coups. This trend has alarmed international observers and raised fears of a broader democratic regression in the region. Guinea-Bissau, while relatively calm in recent years compared to some neighbors, remains one of West Africa’s most politically volatile states. The latest alleged plot is a stark reminder of how quickly the balance can tip from uneasy peace to open conflict.
The international community has not been idle. In March 2025, a mission from a West African regional bloc was dispatched to Guinea-Bissau in an effort to mediate the escalating political crisis. However, the mission left abruptly after what it described as threats of expulsion from President Embaló—a move that signaled just how fraught the situation had become. With the upcoming elections now overshadowed by the specter of military intervention and the opposition’s exclusion, the prospects for a peaceful, credible vote appear uncertain at best.
For ordinary citizens, the latest developments are a painful reminder of the country’s long struggle with instability. Many had hoped that the 2025 elections would mark a new chapter for Guinea-Bissau—a chance to move beyond the cycles of coups and contested mandates. Instead, the nation finds itself once again at a crossroads, with the future of its democracy hanging in the balance.
As Guinea-Bissau braces for its election campaign, the world will be watching closely. The fate of this small but strategically important nation may well hinge on whether its leaders—and its military—can resist the temptations of power and uphold the fragile promise of democratic rule.
