In the early hours following Guinea-Bissau’s November 23, 2025, presidential and legislative elections, the West African nation—already notorious for its political turbulence—plunged into yet another crisis. Soldiers stormed the National Electoral Commission headquarters in Bissau, arresting officials and seizing sensitive documents and equipment, just as the country braced itself for the announcement of election results that could have signaled a new era. Instead, the world watched as the cycle of instability and suspicion deepened, with the fate of democracy hanging in the balance.
Guinea-Bissau, a country of 2.2 million people and a patchwork of largely ungoverned islands, has a long history of coups and incomplete presidential mandates. According to United Nations Human Development Indicators, it remains one of the poorest countries globally and is plagued by hard drug trafficking and endemic political crises. Since gaining independence from Portugal in 1973, no leader has managed to serve out a full term without interruption—until Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló, the nation’s sixth president, who took office in February 2020. But even Embaló’s tenure, which he extended by nearly a year past his original five-year mandate, was marked by constitutional conflict, political instability, and at least four attempted military coups between 2022 and 2025, as reported by The Africa Report.
The latest and most controversial coup attempt occurred on November 26, 2025, announced by Embaló himself, mere hours before the National Electoral Commission was set to reveal the election’s outcome. International observers from ECOWAS, the African Union, and other bodies had described the November 23 vote as “peaceful and orderly,” raising hopes for a rare moment of calm. Yet, as the world waited, gunfire erupted near the presidency, and the armed forces led by General Denis N’Canha declared they had seized power, citing alleged plots by “drug lords” to destabilize the country’s fragile democracy. The military halted the electoral process, imposed a curfew, and closed all borders and the airport, according to BBC and Daily Trust.
Both incumbent Embaló and his main challenger, independent candidate Fernando Dias da Costa, claimed victory in the presidential poll, further muddying the waters. The African Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cabo Verde (PAIGC), a liberation movement with deep roots in the country’s history, was barred from fielding a candidate. Its leader, Domingos Simoes Pereira, was disqualified and later detained, a move that drew sharp criticism from the international community and the PAIGC’s supporters, who demanded his immediate release.
As the military consolidated its grip, Major-General Horta Inta-A, Embaló’s Chief of Presidential Guards, was installed as transitional president on November 27, pledging to govern for one year. He wasted no time in appointing a 28-member cabinet, including Ilídio Vieira Té as both Prime Minister and Finance Minister. The junta’s justification for the coup, as explained by Horta Inta-A, was to prevent narcotraffickers from “capturing Guinean democracy.” Yet, many in West Africa and beyond viewed this explanation with skepticism. Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko and Nigeria’s former President Goodluck Jonathan were among those who questioned the authenticity of the coup, with Jonathan calling it a “ceremonial coup” and expressing disbelief that a sitting president would announce his own ousting while addressing the media. “What happened in Guinea-Bissau, I wouldn’t call it a coup. It’s not a coup. I can describe it as a ceremonial coup because the president, Embaló, announced the coup,” Jonathan told BBC.
Meanwhile, Fernando Dias found himself in grave danger. As threats against his life mounted, Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu approved special protection for Dias inside the Nigerian Embassy in Bissau. In a letter dated November 30, 2025, Nigeria’s Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar informed ECOWAS President Omar Alieu Touray that the move was a “proactive measure to ensure the safety of Mr Da Costa in response to imminent threats to his life.” The letter further requested ECOWAS to direct its Stabilisation Support Mission in Guinea-Bissau to bolster security for Dias within embassy grounds, underscoring Nigeria’s commitment to safeguarding democratic processes and political actors in the region.
As the dust settled, the military government moved swiftly to ban all protests, strikes, and activities seen as risks to peace and stability, ordering public institutions to reopen and resume work. The clampdown came just a day after hundreds of young protesters gathered in Bissau, demanding the release of detained opposition figures and the publication of election results. Tensions remained high, with the PAIGC headquarters reportedly “illegally invaded by heavily armed militia groups,” and its leader Pereira still in detention.
The electoral commission, for its part, announced it could not publish the results, citing the destruction of paperwork and the main computer server by armed men wearing balaclavas. This left the country in a dangerous limbo, with neither a clear winner nor a legitimate government recognized by the international community. Both Embaló and Dias continued to assert their claims to victory, while Guinea-Bissau’s neighbors and international partners struggled to chart a way forward.
ECOWAS, the African Union, and the Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries responded quickly, suspending Guinea-Bissau from their organizations and threatening sanctions against those obstructing the electoral process. A high-level ECOWAS/UN delegation, led by Sierra Leone’s President Julius Maada Bio, visited Bissau to push for a return to constitutional order and the publication of the disputed election returns. The delegation met with military rulers and released officials from the electoral commission, pledging to report their findings at the ECOWAS summit scheduled for December 14, 2025, in Abuja.
Behind the scenes, the fate of Embaló himself became another point of intrigue. After being evacuated from Bissau to Senegal by President Diomaye Faye, Embaló found himself unwelcome there and eventually sought refuge in Congo Brazzaville. Critics, including regional leaders and civil society organizations, accused Embaló of orchestrating the coup to prevent an unfavorable election outcome, with some suggesting he hoped to return via emergency rule or fresh elections. According to The Africa Report, “most of the regional leaders have no appetite for ‘a staged military coup to disrupt an electoral process.’”
For now, Guinea-Bissau faces an uncertain future. The PAIGC-led coalition PAI-Terra Ranka had reportedly won an absolute majority in parliament, but with the electoral process suspended and the presidency in limbo, the country’s fragile semi-presidential system is once again under strain. International observers and democracy advocates insist that only the completion of the electoral process and a transparent declaration of the winner can restore legitimacy and hope to a nation long battered by instability.
As ECOWAS, the African Union, and other partners weigh their options, the people of Guinea-Bissau wait anxiously for an end to the uncertainty, yearning for a government that reflects their will and a future free from the shadow of coups.