In the volatile political landscape of Guinea-Bissau, a new chapter of unrest unfolded this past week as senior military officers were arrested on accusations of plotting a coup against President Umaro Sissoco Embalo. The announcement, made by the country’s armed forces on Friday, October 31, 2025, came at a fraught moment: just one day before the official start of the general election campaign, with legislative and presidential elections looming on November 23.
The alleged coup plot, according to statements from the armed forces General Staff and Deputy Chief of Staff General Mamadu Ture Kuruma, involved several high-ranking officers who had been reported missing since Monday, October 27. Among those named were Brigadier General Dahaba Nawalna, director of a military training school, along with Commanders Domingos Nhanke and Mario Midana. All were apprehended in their homes in the capital, Bissau, on Thursday, October 30.
“This sad episode, which involves some general and senior officers of our Armed Forces, jeopardizes the peace and stability so desired for socio-economic development and the attraction of foreign investment,” read a somber statement from the armed forces General Staff, as reported by the Associated Press. The gravity of the situation was unmistakable; the timing and the seniority of those involved heightened concerns both within the country and among international observers.
At a press conference on Friday, General Kuruma didn’t mince words. “This is indeed a new attempt to subvert the constitutional order, on the eve of the start of the election campaign for the legislative and presidential elections on November 23,” he declared, underscoring the seriousness of the threat and the determination of the military to maintain stability. Reuters echoed these remarks, noting the military’s swift action in arresting the accused plotters and the lack of clarity about the total number of officers involved or their ultimate fate.
President Embalo, who has held office since 2020, addressed the crisis after a cabinet meeting on Thursday. He assured the public that “no disorder will be tolerated,” adding that the “government has taken all necessary measures to ensure the safety of each candidate during this campaign.” His firm stance appeared aimed at projecting confidence and control, even as political tensions simmered beneath the surface.
The backdrop to this attempted coup is a nation with a long and troubled history of political instability. Guinea-Bissau, since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974, has endured a succession of coups and attempted coups. The last known coup attempt against President Embalo occurred in December 2023, making this the second such incident during his tenure. The country’s fragile democracy has often been tested by power struggles—both within the military ranks and between political factions.
Controversy over the legitimacy of Embalo’s presidency has only intensified the current crisis. The opposition claims that Embalo’s five-year term expired at the end of February 2025, while the Supreme Court of Justice ruled that his term extends until September 4, 2025. This legal dispute has fueled tensions, with the opposition refusing to recognize Embalo as the legitimate president. According to the Associated Press, Embalo himself announced in March that he would seek a second term in the upcoming November elections, backtracking on earlier promises to step down at the end of his first term.
The political opposition, already marginalized by the disqualification of its main party from the upcoming elections, has been vocal in its criticism. The general election campaign, which kicks off on Saturday, November 2, is expected to be dominated by Embalo and his allies. The opposition’s refusal to acknowledge Embalo’s authority, coupled with the unresolved dispute over the end date of his term, has left the country’s democratic institutions in a precarious state.
Efforts to mediate the crisis from outside Guinea-Bissau have fared little better. In March, a mission from a West African regional bloc arrived in Bissau hoping to broker a solution. However, the delegation left abruptly, citing threats of expulsion from President Embalo. This abrupt departure signaled the depth of the impasse and the challenges facing those aiming to restore political consensus in the country.
The allegations against the arrested officers are grave, but details remain sparse. General Kuruma named Brigadier General Dahaba Nawalna as the leader of the alleged plot, supported by Commanders Domingos Nhanke and Mario Midana, but did not provide the full list of those detained or specify what charges they might face. As Reuters noted, attempts to reach the accused officers or their representatives for comment were unsuccessful, leaving much about the plot shrouded in uncertainty.
What is clear is the impact such events have on the country’s prospects. “This sad episode… jeopardizes the peace and stability so desired for socio-economic development and the attraction of foreign investment,” the armed forces statement reiterated, echoing widespread fears that political turmoil could further stall Guinea-Bissau’s economic progress. The country, one of the world’s poorest, has struggled to attract the foreign investment needed to boost development, and instability has long deterred international partners.
Guinea-Bissau’s constitution sets the presidential term at five years, with a maximum of two terms. Yet, as the Associated Press pointed out, Embalo unilaterally set the election date for November 30, 2025, stating that his first term would run until then—a decision that only further inflamed the opposition. The ongoing dispute over the precise timing of the election and the end of Embalo’s mandate has left many citizens uncertain about the future of their democracy.
The stakes for the upcoming elections could hardly be higher. With the main opposition party disqualified and the president’s legitimacy under question, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty. The government’s promise to ensure the safety of all candidates is a necessary step, but whether it will be enough to guarantee a free and fair election remains to be seen.
For now, the people of Guinea-Bissau wait and watch, hoping that the latest coup attempt will not plunge their country back into the cycle of violence and instability that has so often marked its post-independence history. As the election campaign begins, the world’s eyes are once again on this small West African nation, wondering whether it can finally break free from its troubled past.
