In a region long marked by political turbulence, West Africa is again at a crossroads as Guinea and neighboring Guinea-Bissau grapple with the aftermath of coups, contested elections, and the struggle for legitimate governance. The world’s gaze is fixed on these nations as they attempt to navigate transitions fraught with uncertainty and the shadow of military intervention.
Guinea, a country familiar with upheaval, is holding its first presidential election since the 2021 coup that ousted Alpha Conde, a leader who, until his removal, had been a defining figure in the nation’s recent history. According to AFP, Conde, both president and a candidate in 2020, addressed a campaign rally in Conakry on October 16, 2020, only to be forced into exile after his controversial third-term victory was cut short by the military’s intervention.
Now, the spotlight has shifted to Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, the man who led the 2021 coup and has since presided over Guinea’s transition. As reported by Reuters, Doumbouya’s decision to run for the presidency has drawn sharp criticism from both former allies and opposition figures, raising questions about the legitimacy of a transition that began with promises of returning power to civilians. This Sunday’s election, scheduled for December 21, 2025, is being closely watched not just in Guinea, but across the region, as it marks a crucial test for whether the country can move beyond its cycle of coups and contested mandates.
The field of challengers to Doumbouya is both diverse and emblematic of Guinea’s political complexity. Abdoulaye Yero Balde, age 60, leads the Democratic Front of Guinea (FRONDEG) party. An economist with degrees from the Sorbonne and Columbia University, Balde broke ranks with Conde’s party in 2020 to oppose the latter’s controversial third-term bid. Balde is a member of the Fulani, Guinea’s largest ethnic group, and is considered a strong contender capable of galvanizing significant opposition support, especially with exiled leader Cellou Dalein Diallo absent from the race.
Other notable candidates include Faya Lansana Millimono, 63, of the Liberal Bloc party, who initially supported Doumbouya’s junta before turning into a vocal critic. Millimono, who holds a PhD in Educational Administration from the University of Montreal, previously ran for president in 2015, securing a modest 1.4% of the vote. Ibrahima Abe Sylla, 74, former parliamentarian and energy minister under Doumbouya, brings a strong base among the youth in the Basse-Guinee coastal region, which includes the capital, Conakry. Sylla’s time in the United States has also informed his political outlook.
The only female candidate, Hadja Makale Camara, 69, leads the Front for National Alliance (FAN). A lawyer and former foreign affairs minister under Conde, Camara is making her second presidential bid, having earned about 0.7% of the vote in 2020. The youngest on the ballot, Abdoulaye Kourouma, 42, heads the Rally for Renaissance and Development (RRD) party and is an economist trained in Russia. Mohamed Nabe, 53, of the Alliance for Renewal and Progress (ARP), is a relative newcomer but boasts an economics background from the London School of Economics. Rounding out the field are Bouna Keita, a 72-year-old diamond merchant running for the second time, and Mohamed Cherif Haidara, also 72, an independent candidate who remains largely unknown.
This crowded and varied field reflects both the hopes and the frustrations of a country weary of military rule and political stagnation. According to Reuters, the absence of exiled opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo has left a vacuum that Balde and others are eager to fill, yet the specter of Doumbouya’s military background and his decision to run for office continues to cast a long shadow over the proceedings.
Meanwhile, Guinea’s neighbor, Guinea-Bissau, is facing its own political crisis. On November 26, 2025, the military overthrew outgoing President Umaro Sissoco Embalo and suspended the ongoing electoral process, as reported by AFP. The coup, which occurred just one day before the provisional results of the presidential and legislative elections were to be announced, has thrown the country into further turmoil. The junta quickly appointed General Horta N'Tam, a close associate of Embalo, as the head of a one-year transitional government.
Opposition candidate Fernando Dias, who claimed victory in the disrupted election, sought refuge at the Nigerian embassy, where he was granted asylum. Domingos Simões Pereira, a prominent opposition leader, was detained along with several others on the day of the coup. Embalo himself, initially held by the military, has since fled the country. The situation remains tense, with political prisoners held in uncertain conditions and international actors watching closely.
On December 21, 2025, a Senegalese delegation led by Foreign Minister Cheikh Niang visited Bissau to advocate for the release of political detainees and to urge a return to constitutional order. As Cheikh Niang stated, "Senegal came to reiterate its determination to support Guinea-Bissau and ensure that normality returns as soon as possible." The delegation proposed the release of all those held in connection with the November 26 coup, emphasizing regional solidarity and the urgent need for dialogue.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has also stepped in, threatening targeted sanctions against anyone obstructing a return to civilian rule. However, efforts to send an ECOWAS military delegation to Bissau have so far been rebuffed, with a Bissau-Guinean security source telling AFP, "For the moment, we are not prepared to receive the ECOWAS military delegation." These developments underscore the delicate balance between regional intervention and respect for national sovereignty—a tension that has shaped West African politics for decades.
Guinea-Bissau’s history is replete with coups and attempted coups since its independence from Portugal in 1974, and the current crisis is but the latest chapter in a long saga of instability. The fate of the country’s political prisoners, the legitimacy of its transitional authorities, and the prospects for a genuine return to democracy remain deeply uncertain.
As both Guinea and Guinea-Bissau navigate these fraught transitions, the wider region watches with a mix of hope and apprehension. Will Guinea’s election mark the end of military rule, or simply the continuation of power by other means? Can Guinea-Bissau’s political prisoners be freed and its democracy restored, or will the cycle of coups persist? The coming weeks may provide answers, but for now, West Africa is left holding its breath.
