In a dramatic twist at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, Tallon Griekspoor defied the odds—and his own body—to carve out a spot in the final after a thrilling 7-5, 7-6(6) victory over Andrey Rublev. Friday’s semifinal was a showcase of grit, guts, and some seriously booming serves, as both men fired 20 aces apiece and combined for 37 winners each. But it was Griekspoor, the world No. 25, who ultimately found a way to survive the pressure—and his apparent upper left leg injury—to outlast the fifth-seeded Russian for the first time in four head-to-head meetings.
Coming into the match, few predicted this outcome. Rublev, ranked 18th in the world and a five-time Dubai semifinalist, was heavily favored by bookmakers and predictive models alike. BetMGM Sportsbook had Rublev at -275 to win, giving him a 73.3% implied probability, while Dimers’ tennis prediction model gave him a 72% chance of advancing. But as any seasoned tennis fan knows, matches are played on the court—not in the odds makers’ spreadsheets.
Griekspoor, who had already dispatched second-seeded Alexander Bublik in the second round and No. 13 Jakub Mensik in the quarterfinals, continued his run of top-20 upsets. This marks the first time in his career that he’s notched three consecutive wins over top-20 opponents at a single event. The Dutchman’s journey to the final is even more impressive considering his struggles in the latter half of the 2025 season, where he posted a 12-16 record on hard courts and exited early at the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament just two weeks prior.
The semifinal itself was a tense, high-octane affair. Both players held serve comfortably through the opening games, neither surrendering a break point until late in the first set. In the pivotal 11th game, Rublev applied the pressure and earned three break points. Griekspoor, however, responded with a fearless display: an aggressive forehand approach saved the first, a bold second serve down the T erased the second, and another T-serve staved off the third. He then slammed back-to-back aces—his 10th and 11th of the match—to secure a crucial hold for 6-5.
But the effort came at a cost. Griekspoor signaled for the physio and left the court at the changeover, seeking treatment for what appeared to be a hamstring issue in his upper left leg. Despite the discomfort, he returned to the court determined to keep points short and maintain his attacking mindset. His gamble paid off: Griekspoor forced his first break point and converted it, clinching the opening set 7-5 after 57 minutes with a blistering backhand crosscourt return.
“I knew I had to go for my shots, especially with my leg not feeling great,” Griekspoor said after the match, according to tournament sources. “Saving those break points with aces gave me a real boost.”
The second set was a serving clinic from both men. Rublev, who had won 81.5% of his service games on hard courts over the past year, was nearly untouchable. At one point, he won 20 of 21 service points. The Russian forced a tiebreak after holding at love for 5-all and then surged ahead, ripping four consecutive aces to take a 5-2 lead in the breaker. When Griekspoor netted a forehand, Rublev found himself with two set points at 6-4, seemingly poised to force a decider.
But Griekspoor wasn’t done. He saved the first set point with a gutsy crosscourt forehand return winner—a shot that drew a wry smile from Rublev, who could only watch as the ball whizzed past. On the second set point, Rublev missed his return. Sensing the momentum shift, Griekspoor whipped a wide serve to earn match point at 7-6, and when Rublev netted a return, the Dutchman had sealed the upset in one hour and 45 minutes.
“All credit to Tallon. He played big when it mattered most,” said Rublev in his post-match press conference. “I had my chances, but he just wouldn’t give in.”
The win sends Griekspoor into his sixth ATP Final and his first since capturing the title in Mallorca last June. It’s also his second career ATP 500 final, following his runner-up finish in Washington, DC, in 2023. For Rublev, the loss marks another missed opportunity in Dubai, where he’s now reached the semifinals five times but has yet to claim the trophy. The Russian had entered the match with a strong hard-court record (23-15 over the past year) and had just come off a semifinal showing at the Qatar ExxonMobil Open, where he lost to Carlos Alcaraz.
Griekspoor’s reward? A showdown in the final with former world No. 1 Daniil Medvedev, who advanced by dispatching Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-4, 6-2 in the other semifinal. Medvedev, the 2023 Dubai champion, is aiming to become a two-time winner at the event—a feat he’s never achieved before, as all 22 of his ATP titles have come at 22 different tournaments. If he lifts the trophy again, Dubai will become his first repeat conquest.
This final also carries echoes of last year’s Dubai quarterfinal, where Griekspoor edged Medvedev in a dramatic three-setter, saving four match points to win 2-6, 7-6(7), 7-5. That lone previous meeting adds an extra layer of intrigue to Saturday’s clash. Can Griekspoor repeat the feat, especially with his leg still a question mark? Or will Medvedev’s tactical brilliance and big-match experience prevail?
“It’s always tough playing Daniil,” Griekspoor noted. “He’s one of the best returners in the game and he’s already won here before. I’ll need to bring my best tennis and hope my body holds up.”
As the tennis world turns its eyes to Dubai, anticipation is sky-high. Will Griekspoor’s bold run continue, or will Medvedev finally double up at a single event? One thing’s for sure: after a semifinal this dramatic, the final promises even more fireworks.
With both players coming off impressive wins and carrying their own storylines—Griekspoor’s underdog surge and Medvedev’s quest for a repeat—the stage is set for a memorable Dubai finale. The action resumes tomorrow, and fans won’t want to miss a single point.