Greenland’s Ice Sheet Surprises Scientists With Falling Seas

For decades, scientists have watched the world’s oceans creep higher, fueled by the relentless march of climate change. Yet, in a twist that defies expectations, new research reveals that Greenland—long considered ground zero for melting ice—may actually see its local sea level drop in the coming decades, even as the rest of the world faces rising tides. This counterintuitive finding, published on February 20, 2026, in Nature Communications and echoed across leading scientific outlets, adds a fascinating new chapter to the story of our planet’s changing climate. At the heart of this story is Greenland’s colossal ice sheet, which blankets roughly 80% of the island and reaches thicknesses of up to a mile in places. This ice sheet is not only one of Earth’s largest reservoirs of freshwater but also a critical piece of the global climate puzzle. As reported by BBC and ScienceAlert, the sheet is currently losing about 200 billion tons of ice each year—a staggering figure that would seem to spell disaster for coastlines everywhere. But the science, as it turns out, is more nuanced. According to a team led by geophysicist Lauren Lewright at Columbia University, the loss of ice in Greenland is triggering a series of local effects that run counter to global trends. Their study combined decades of real-world observations with sophisticated computer modeling to predict how Greenland’s landscape and sea levels will evolve through the 21st century. Globally, rising sea levels are driven by two main forces: thermal expansion and melting ice. As greenhouse gases trap more heat in the atmosphere, the oceans absorb much of that warmth, causing the water to expand—a process known as thermal expansion. Add in the meltwater from shrinking glaciers and ice sheets, and you have a recipe for rising seas from Miami to Mumbai. "The rising of sea level happens mainly because of greenhouse gases that accumulate in the atmosphere. These gases catch the heat that would normally escape into space, and the result is that the planet warms," the study notes. However, in Greenland, the story takes a sharp turn. The immense weight of its ice sheet has, for millennia, pressed down on the land beneath. As the ice melts and sheds its mass, that pressure eases, and the land begins to rise—a process known as isostatic rebound. Lewright’s team found that, depending on how aggressively humanity curbs greenhouse gas emissions, Greenland could see between 0.9 meters (around 3 feet) and 2.5 meters (about 8.2 feet) of new land exposed by century’s end. "If greenhouse gas emissions are limited, Greenland could gain about 0.9 meters of exposed land by the end of the 21st century. If emissions continue without reduction, the land could rise by as much as 2.5 meters," the researchers concluded. Gravity, too, plays a surprising role. When Greenland’s ice sheet was at its heaviest, its mass exerted a gravitational pull, drawing ocean water toward the island and raising local sea levels. As the ice melts and that gravitational force weakens, the ocean water is no longer pulled as strongly toward Greenland, causing the sea surface nearby to fall. In effect, Greenland’s neighbors may find themselves with more land and lower seas—while the rest of the world contends with the opposite. Yet these changes are not without consequence. Most of Greenland’s population lives along the coast, and shifts in sea level—whether up or down—can disrupt harbors, fishing grounds, and infrastructure. As CBC reported, "Greenland's coastal population and infrastructure may be affected by these local sea-level changes." The study’s findings highlight how climate change, while global in scope, can produce dramatically different outcomes from one region to another. Of course, Greenland’s ice sheet is more than just a passive victim of warming—it’s also a window into Earth’s climatic past and future. Scientists have long drilled deep into the ancient ice to extract clues about atmospheric conditions stretching back thousands of years. These records are vital for understanding how the planet responds to shifts in temperature, greenhouse gases, and other variables. But recent discoveries beneath Greenland’s ice have upended even more assumptions. On February 21, 2026, researchers announced in The Cryosphere that radar images had revealed strange, plume-like structures deep inside the ice sheet. These formations, first detected over a decade ago, puzzled scientists for years. Were they the result of meltwater refreezing, or perhaps slippery patches at the ice’s base? Glaciologist Robert Law of the University of Bergen offered a new explanation: thermal convection within the ice itself. "Finding that thermal convection can happen within an ice sheet goes slightly against our intuition and expectations. Ice is at least a million times softer than the Earth's mantle, though, so the physics just work out," Law remarked. Using geodynamics software—typically reserved for modeling the movement of molten rock beneath Earth’s crust—Law and his colleagues simulated a 2.5-kilometer thick slab of ice. When they warmed the base of the model, plume-like upwellings formed, mirroring the radar observations. This convection, driven by geothermal heat leaking up from Earth’s interior, causes the ice to deform in slow-motion plumes, much like a pot of pasta boiling on the stove. "We typically think of ice as a solid material, so the discovery that parts of the Greenland ice sheet actually undergo thermal convection, resembling a boiling pot of pasta, is as wild as it is fascinating," said climatologist Andreas Born, also at the University of Bergen. Importantly, the ice remains solid and flows only over thousands of years—so there’s no risk of Greenland’s ice suddenly turning to slush. Still, the implications for how quickly the ice sheet might melt, and how it will respond to further warming, remain uncertain and demand further research. Greenland’s ice sheet is not just a scientific curiosity—it’s a linchpin in ongoing geopolitical debates. As CBC highlighted, the U.S. government’s interest in Greenland has raised concerns among scientists about continued access to the island’s crucial ice cores. Security expert Whitney Lackenbauer explained that "fears about Arctic warming and climate change are fueling current geopolitical tensions," while glaciologist Martin Siegert stressed that "political stability in Greenland is crucial for global climate research and planetary health." In the end, the story of Greenland is a reminder that nature rarely offers simple answers. While most of the world braces for higher seas, Greenland’s unique combination of rising land, shifting gravity, and churning ice offers a rare—and instructive—exception. As scientists continue to probe the island’s ancient ice and hidden dynamics, their discoveries will shape not just our understanding of Greenland, but of the entire planet’s uncertain future.