It’s a chilly Tuesday evening at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, and anticipation is thick in the Andalusian air as Granada CF prepares to host Rayo Vallecano in the Round of 32 of the 2025/26 Copa del Rey. The stakes? A coveted spot in the next phase of Spain’s most storied cup competition—a chance for both teams to turn their seasons around and ignite some much-needed momentum.
Granada, who graced La Liga just 18 months ago, have fallen on hard times. Their campaign in the Segunda Division has been nothing short of a struggle, with the club flirting dangerously close to relegation. Four matches without a win have left confidence shaken, and the main objective, by all accounts, is survival in the league. Yet, as coach Pacheta leads his depleted squad onto their home turf, there’s a glimmer of hope that the cup could offer respite from league woes.
But the problems for Granada run deeper than poor results. The squad list is worryingly thin: goalkeeper Luca Zidane is away at the Africa Cup of Nations, Baila Diallo is sidelined with injury, and Pau Casadesús remains a doubt after limping off against Almeria. At least Oscar Naasei returns from suspension, providing a boost to a back line in desperate need of reinforcement. The expected starting eleven is a patchwork of regulars and stand-ins, with Astralaga, Williams, Lama, Ormigo, Sáenz, Alcaraz, Arnaiz, Serna, Faye, Sola, and Pascual all likely to feature.
Despite these setbacks, Granada’s home form offers a silver lining. They’ve lost just once in their last seven outings at Los Cármenes, and the fortress-like atmosphere could prove crucial. However, the club’s priorities are clear: "The main objective for the season is to secure their place in the Segunda, so expect squad rotation and less motivation against a La Liga opponent," as one analysis put it.
On the other side, Rayo Vallecano arrive with their own set of challenges—though the mood in the camp is more optimistic. The Madrid-based club is juggling commitments on three fronts: La Liga, the Copa del Rey, and the Europa Conference League. Their league form has been patchy, with an eight-match winless streak, but in cup competitions, they’ve shown resilience. A gritty extra-time win over Real Ávila in the previous round demonstrated their depth and determination.
Inigo Pérez, Rayo’s head coach, won’t have a full deck to play with either. Five key players are out, including Pathé Ciss and Abdul Mumin (both at the Africa Cup of Nations), and injuries rule out Ivan Balliu, Alemao, and Luiz Felipe. Forward Jorge de Frutos, a key goal threat with six goals and two assists from 17 starts, is also unavailable. Despite these absences, Rayo boast an enviable squad depth, with Trejo, Pérez, and Mendy all capable of stepping up. The probable starting lineup includes Batalla, Felipe, Mendy, Ratiu, Chavarría, Valentín, Díaz, Pérez Martínez, Trejo, García, and Camello.
History, it seems, is firmly on Rayo’s side. The "Bees" haven’t lost to Granada since 2013, going unbeaten in their last 11 meetings—nine of those ending in victory. In fact, in nine of those 11 encounters, Rayo have scored at least twice, underlining their dominance in this rivalry. The overall head-to-head record is even more lopsided: out of 24 meetings, Rayo have won 16, Granada just three, with five draws.
But it’s not just about numbers. There’s a rich tapestry of shared history between these clubs. Players and coaches have switched allegiances, leaving their mark on both sides of the divide. Names like Gumbau, who returned to Vallecas for a second loan from Granada, and Alvaro Garcia, who struggled for goals at Granada but now leads Rayo’s attack, add depth to this rivalry. Legendary coaches Paco Jémez and Sandoval evoke nostalgia among fans, their legacies still echoing in the stands.
Yet, not everything is rosy off the pitch. Ticket prices have sparked controversy, with some fans grumbling about the €20 charge for season ticket holders and a steep €60 for the general public. On a public holiday, no less! The cost could thin out the crowd, potentially dampening what should be a raucous atmosphere for such a high-stakes clash.
Granada’s recent cup form offers a sliver of optimism. They’ve won both prior Copa del Rey games this season, scoring six and conceding just one. Still, their last league outing—a narrow 3-2 defeat to Almeria—exposed defensive frailties. Rayo, meanwhile, have breezed through their two cup assignments with an aggregate 8-2 score, even as they struggle for consistency in La Liga.
As for predictions, most experts and bookmakers give the edge to Rayo Vallecano. Odds favor the visitors, with Rayo priced as 6/5 favorites and Granada at 12/5. The consensus is that Rayo’s top-flight pedigree and superior squad depth will be too much for a Granada side low on confidence and missing key players. A common forecast is a 2-0 win for Rayo, while some tipsters hedge their bets, suggesting a double chance on Rayo or a draw, with less than 2.5 total goals expected due to both teams’ offensive inconsistencies.
"Given their past head-to-head record and top-flight experience, we expect Rayo Vallecano to win against Granada in this contest," one preview confidently states. Another notes, "Rayo Vallecano have struggled somewhat to deal with the demands of their first European campaign since 2001 but they should still be too strong in this cup clash for a Granada team floundering near the bottom of the second tier."
For Granada, this is more than just a cup tie—it’s a chance to reignite belief and give their supporters something to cheer about. For Rayo, it’s an opportunity to avoid being the tenth top-flight team dumped out of the competition and to keep their cup dreams alive. The match will be broadcast live on Movistar LaLiga, Teledeporte, and streamed on Movistar Plus+, ensuring fans won’t miss a moment of the drama.
As the teams take to the pitch, all eyes are on Los Cármenes. Will Granada defy the odds and pull off a famous upset, or will Rayo Vallecano’s dominance continue? One thing’s certain: with history, pride, and a place in the last 16 on the line, this Copa del Rey clash promises fireworks, no matter the outcome. The action is set, and the football world is watching.
