For generations, the SAT has loomed large over the college admissions process in the United States, its three letters capable of evoking everything from dread to determination in high school students. But as the academic world continues to evolve, the question of just how much weight the SAT should carry—compared to a student’s high school GPA—has become a matter of intense debate. Recent research and changing policies have brought fresh scrutiny to the role of standardized testing, challenging long-held assumptions and prompting educators, students, and parents to reconsider what really predicts college success.
On March 31, 2026, two separate articles—one offering practical SAT preparation tips and another delving into the predictive value of test scores versus GPA—highlighted the ongoing complexities of this perennial issue. Both pieces, drawing from recent studies and the lived experiences of students navigating the admissions maze, help paint a fuller picture of where things stand and where they may be headed.
First, let’s talk preparation. According to StatePoint, most college admissions departments still view standardized test scores as a significant part of their decision-making process, even if the landscape is shifting. For students aiming to maximize their SAT performance, the right tools can make a world of difference. The article specifically recommends arming oneself with a user-friendly calculator, such as the Casio fx-9750GIII. This device isn’t just a simple number cruncher; with features like a Natural Textbook Display, intuitive icon menus, graph plotting, probability distribution, vector arithmetic, spreadsheets, and programming capabilities, it’s designed to be a powerful companion on test day. Importantly, it’s approved for use on the SAT, PSAT, ACT, and AP tests, and it offers an exam mode that locks certain functions to comply with testing regulations.
But having the right gear is only part of the equation. StatePoint emphasizes the importance of practice—especially with free online resources, such as sample exams available at casioeducation.com. Working through these materials not only helps students get acquainted with the types of questions they’ll face but also allows them to become comfortable with their calculator’s functions. And practice doesn’t have to break the bank: SAT prep courses, once a luxury for many, are now often available for free, making them accessible to a broader range of students. "Be sure to leverage this resource to maximize your test readiness," the article advises.
Of course, the SAT isn’t just about math. StatePoint also suggests that students read as widely as possible—novels, biographies, newspapers, you name it—to build vocabulary and strengthen reading comprehension. While memorizing word lists might seem tempting, encountering new words in real-world contexts can be far more effective when it comes to acing the Reading and Writing section.
Yet, as important as these strategies are, the larger question remains: How much does SAT performance really matter when it comes to college success? That’s where the second article, published the same day, brings crucial context. According to an analysis of decades of research, the SAT and ACT were originally touted as predictors of a student’s likelihood to thrive in college—a kind of audition for admissions officers keen to admit those most likely to succeed. But over time, the value of these tests has been called into question, with critics pointing to potential cultural biases and the growing body of evidence suggesting that high school grade point average (GPA) is actually a much stronger indicator.
A landmark 2009 study by William Bowen, Matthew Chingos, and Michael McPherson—published by Princeton University—examined 150,000 students across nearly 70 colleges and universities. Instead of just looking at freshman year outcomes, the researchers focused on six-year college completion rates, a much more meaningful metric. Their findings were striking: high school GPA was 2.5 times more predictive of college success than SAT scores at the most selective universities, and a staggering 10 times more predictive at the least selective schools.
The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 upended the traditional admissions process, as high schools and test centers closed and colleges—including all eight Ivy League schools—dropped standardized testing requirements. This real-world experiment provided a unique opportunity to examine the effects of test-optional policies. The results were mixed. At Dartmouth College, for example, a study found that high-achieving students from disadvantaged backgrounds improved their admission chances 2.4 times by submitting their test scores. On the other hand, research from the University of California, Davis, showed that eliminating test requirements generally increased diversity—unless the schools faced financial pressures or continued to emphasize academic criteria.
By 2023, the pendulum had swung back, with many schools reinstating standardized testing requirements. This allowed researchers to compare cohorts admitted with and without the test-optional approach, offering new data on the ongoing debate. A recent working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, led by Theodore Joyce of Baruch College and the CUNY Graduate Center, analyzed over 225,000 students across pre- and post-COVID cohorts. The researchers looked at freshman performance, persistence into the second year, and graduation rates. Their conclusion was clear: "Our results underscore the dominance of HSGPA [high school grade point average] as the most important predictor of student success at this public university system." The paper is unequivocal in stating that "high school grades are a vastly superior predictor of student academic success than is the SAT."
These findings have significant implications for students, parents, and educators alike. The article suggests that the focus should shift away from expensive SAT coaching toward academic support that helps students improve their GPAs. After all, if GPA is the best predictor of college readiness and completion, then investing in the underlying academic skills that contribute to a strong GPA may be the most effective strategy. As the article puts it, "High schools should be reminding their students daily that it is their GPA that best predicts their readiness for college, and if college is their goal, then better results from high coursework should be their focus."
For students feeling overwhelmed by the pressure to ace the SAT, this could be welcome news. StatePoint’s advice rings true: "The SAT can cause a lot of stress and anxiety, but it doesn’t have to. With the right tools and preparation strategies, you can walk into the SAT with confidence and achieve your best score possible." At the same time, the research suggests that focusing on consistent academic achievement throughout high school may ultimately matter more than a single test day.
As colleges continue to refine their admissions processes in the wake of the pandemic and shifting societal priorities, the debate over standardized testing is far from settled. But one thing is clear: while the SAT remains a significant hurdle for many, a student’s GPA—built over years of hard work—may be the key that truly unlocks the door to college success.