As the sun rose over Greater Manchester on February 26, 2026, voters in Gorton and Denton found themselves at the heart of one of the most closely watched by-elections in recent memory. The contest, triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Andrew Gwynne over offensive messages, quickly escalated into a three-way political showdown with national ramifications, testing not just the mettle of local candidates but the very direction of Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government.
Polling stations opened their doors at 7am, and from the outset, the atmosphere was charged with anticipation—and anxiety. Labour, which has held the seat and its predecessor Denton and Reddish since 1983, faced a challenge unlike any in decades. The party’s decision to block Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing and instead select local councillor Angeliki Stogia set the stage for a dramatic contest. As LBC’s political editor Natasha Clark put it, “The Gorton and Denton by-election is an absolutely crucial moment for Starmer and this Labour government. After Labour blocked Burnham from standing, the race is on for them to try to hold this vital seat. It will be a really good indicator of how well Labour can get their support to hold up, and how much anger is out there for the PM.”
The candidate roster was as diverse as it was crowded, featuring not only Labour and the main opposition parties but also Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin, the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer, and a host of others—from the Monster Raving Loony Party’s Sir Oink A-Lot to the Communist League’s Hugo Wills. In all, eleven names appeared on the ballot, reflecting the fragmentation and unpredictability of modern British politics.
Labour’s majority, a hefty 13,413 votes in 2024, suddenly seemed less secure as polls and pundits alike predicted a tight three-way contest. Reform UK, led in the constituency by academic and commentator Matt Goodwin, sought to capitalize on national discontent, while the Greens, with Trafford councillor and plumber Hannah Spencer as their candidate, aimed to tap into the seat’s strong left-leaning tradition—nearly 80% of voters had backed a left-of-centre party in the last general election.
As the day wore on, the stakes became apparent not just in political circles but in financial markets. According to the Evening Standard, the pound sterling edged lower amid investor jitters that a Labour loss could undermine Starmer’s premiership. By 4pm, Sterling had slipped 0.39% against the US Dollar to $1.3504 and 0.22% against the Euro to 0.8731 pence. The City, ever sensitive to political uncertainty, watched closely, mindful of the potential for a more left-wing Chancellor to succeed Rachel Reeves should Starmer’s grip on power falter.
Labour, acutely aware of the contest’s significance, threw everything at the campaign. Over 1,000 activists were deployed to the constituency, and Starmer himself visited on February 24, framing the by-election as a choice between “unity or division.” In his final campaign message, he declared, “The choice at today’s by-election could not be more stark. Unity or division. Driving down the cost of living with Labour or driving a wedge between communities under Reform. Moving forwards together, or opening up anger and division that holds our country back.”
The Green Party, for its part, was equally determined. Leader Zack Polanski claimed his party was “neck and neck” with Reform UK, and argued that Labour’s repeated warnings that only it could stop Reform echoed the failed strategy of the 2024 Caerphilly by-election. “I think the Labour party will have to search their conscience if they’ve allowed the Reform party to win,” Polanski said, accusing Labour of sinking to “a new low” with negative campaigning, including an attack advert that linked the Greens to drug legalization. Polanski described Starmer’s visit as “spoiler behaviour,” suggesting Labour’s confidence might be misplaced.
Meanwhile, Reform UK’s campaign was buoyed by national leader Nigel Farage, who urged voters to “Vote Reform to ditch Starmer.” Goodwin, however, faced criticism for his comments on women, Muslims, and British citizenship, adding another layer of controversy to an already heated race.
The voting process itself was under scrutiny. Not only did this by-election mark one of the first major tests of the new, stricter voter ID requirements introduced after the 2024 general election, but high turnout and the prospect of a razor-thin margin meant that officials braced for a long night. As reported by the Manchester Evening News, polling stations closed at 10pm, after which ballot boxes were transported to the central counting venue. Verification of ballot numbers was expected to run from 11pm to 1am, followed by the actual vote count from 1am to 3am. If all went smoothly, a result could be declared as early as 3:30am or 5am on February 27, but a recount or exceptionally high turnout could push the announcement as late as 7am.
Political scientists and observers were quick to note the broader implications. Professor Will Jennings of the University of Southampton remarked that the contest was “too close to call” and emblematic of Britain’s increasingly fragmented political landscape. “A Labour defeat would be terminal for No 10’s strategy to try to appeal to right-leaning voters, which has alienated its core progressive supporters,” he explained. “The worst-case scenario for Labour is coming third behind Reform and the Greens, not least because of the decision to stop Andy Burnham from standing.”
Yet even a Labour victory, Jennings noted, would not dispel the clouds gathering over Starmer’s government. With local and devolved elections looming in just ten weeks, the by-election was seen as a bellwether for Labour’s fortunes nationwide. Any relief from holding Gorton and Denton would likely be short-lived, as the party faces expected heavy losses across England, Scotland, and Wales.
For the voters of Gorton and Denton, the by-election was an opportunity to send a message—not just about local representation, but about the direction of the country. The candidates, from the mainstream to the eccentric, reflected a constituency grappling with national anxieties and local priorities alike. Whether Labour could hold off the surging Greens and a resurgent Reform UK, or whether a historic upset was in the making, the answer would come in the early hours of Friday morning, as ballot papers were counted and the political future of Greater Manchester—and perhaps the nation—hung in the balance.
As the dust settles and the winner is declared, all eyes will turn to what comes next for Labour and its rivals. For now, Gorton and Denton stands as a vivid reminder that in British politics, nothing is ever truly predictable.