Gold has once again captured the spotlight in global markets, as its price continues to climb on the back of mounting economic uncertainty and shifting central bank policy expectations. On December 17, 2025, spot gold gained 0.2% to $4,310.21 per ounce as of 1:48 p.m. ET, according to Scrap Monster, while U.S. gold futures settled slightly lower at $4,332.30. This surge comes amid a flurry of economic data signaling stress in the U.S. labor market and a slowing global economy, particularly in China, which together have fueled investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
The latest U.S. jobs report proved pivotal. In November 2025, the U.S. economy added 64,000 jobs—slightly above expectations—but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest level since 2021 and up from 4.4% in September. This uptick in unemployment, coupled with flat retail sales in October and a downward revision for September, has deepened worries about the economic outlook. As reported by Reuters and Scrap Monster, the labor market’s cooling is widely interpreted as giving the U.S. Federal Reserve more room to cut interest rates in the coming months.
Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, summed up the prevailing market sentiment: “(The) data gives the Fed more reason to cut rates and if they cut rates, that’s bullish for gold... that’s the way the market’s interpreting it right now.” His words echo the growing consensus that weaker economic data will force the Fed’s hand, making gold—an asset that doesn’t yield interest—more attractive as yields on other investments fall.
Indeed, the Federal Open Market Committee announced a quarter-point rate cut last week, and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments were perceived as less hawkish than markets had anticipated. U.S. rate futures are now pricing in two additional 25 basis point cuts in 2026, totaling 59 basis points of expected easing. The anticipation of lower rates has contributed to a decline in the U.S. dollar, which fell to a two-month low on December 17, 2025, making gold more affordable for overseas buyers and further supporting demand.
It’s not just U.S. economic data shaping gold’s trajectory. China, the world’s second-largest economy, has also posted disappointing figures. Industrial output slowed to 4.8% year-over-year in November 2025, the weakest pace since August 2024, and retail sales rose just 1.3%, marking the slowest growth since 2022. These numbers have added to global growth fears, prompting investors to seek refuge in hard assets.
Market watchers are also keeping an eye on political developments that could affect monetary policy. Reports suggest that former President Donald Trump is considering Christopher Waller for the next Federal Reserve chair. Waller is widely seen as supportive of lower interest rates, which would likely reinforce the current dovish tilt at the central bank and add further momentum to gold’s rally.
Against this backdrop, investors are eagerly awaiting fresh inflation data, with November’s Consumer Price Index due on December 18 and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index following shortly after. These reports are expected to provide further clues about the Fed’s next moves and could inject additional volatility into gold markets.
From a technical perspective, gold’s chart paints a bullish picture. The metal has been tracing an ascending broadening wedge pattern since late 2024, a formation characterized by expanding volatility and an overall upward bias. After consolidating along the lower boundary of this wedge, gold has surged toward the upper limit, suggesting a bullish continuation. According to FXStreet, a series of cup-like structures have formed just below the $4,400 level throughout late 2025, indicating repeated accumulation and failed attempts to push prices lower. Gold now sits near a critical resistance point, and a close above $4,400 with conviction could confirm a breakout, setting the stage for a run toward the projected target of $4,700.
Alex Ebkarian, COO at Allegiance Gold, offered an even more optimistic outlook, stating, “If gold finishes 2025 above $4,400, then it could see $4,859-$5,590 in 2026.” He also noted that silver could retest the $50 per ounce level next year. This forecast underscores the growing sense that gold’s rally may have room to run if the macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive.
Silver, platinum, and palladium have also experienced notable price movements. Spot silver fell 0.3% to $63.75 an ounce on December 17, 2025, pulling back from a record high of $64.65 set just days earlier. Platinum rose 4% to $1,854.95, its highest since September 2011, while palladium gained 2.5% to $1,606.41, reaching a two-month high. Ebkarian remarked, “Platinum group metals are breaking out as supply tightens and demand expands.”
Meanwhile, benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields edged lower, reflecting investor caution and adding to gold’s appeal. The combination of lower yields, a weaker dollar, and global economic jitters has created a powerful cocktail for gold bulls.
Of course, not all investors are convinced that the rally will continue unabated. Some point to the possibility of a rebound in economic data or a more hawkish turn by the Fed if inflation proves stickier than anticipated. However, with the unemployment rate at multi-year highs and consumer spending showing signs of fatigue, the odds currently favor a more accommodative policy stance—and by extension, further gains for gold.
Looking ahead to 2026, much will depend on how the economic data evolves and whether the Fed follows through with additional rate cuts. For now, though, the narrative is clear: gold is benefiting from a perfect storm of weak economic indicators, dovish central bank expectations, and persistent global uncertainty.
As investors brace for more data and potential policy shifts, gold remains firmly in the driver’s seat—its upward momentum supported by both fundamental and technical factors. If the metal can decisively break above the $4,400 barrier, the next chapter in this historic rally may be just beginning.
