Gold Prices Soar As Vietnam Stocks Stall Near Highs

As global financial markets navigate a maze of uncertainty and shifting sentiment, two key stories have come to the fore at the start of 2026: the remarkable surge in gold prices and the cautious, sideways movement of Vietnam’s VN-Index. Each development, while rooted in its own context, reveals much about the forces shaping investor behavior and the broader economic landscape.

According to a January 25 analysis by expert Muhammad Umair, gold has been riding a wave of demand as a safe haven asset. The catalyst? None other than US President Donald Trump, whose bold and disruptive statements at the World Economic Forum in Davos sent ripples through the international order. As reported by leading financial outlets, Trump’s remarks rattled relations between the United States and its European allies, prompting investors to question the stability of the current global system. In times of geopolitical tension, it’s not unusual for gold to shine—after all, when the world gets jittery, people tend to flock to what they know won’t lose its luster.

Adding fuel to gold’s rally is the clear weakening of the US dollar. The USD Index, a key measure of the greenback’s strength, recently broke through the critical 98-point support level and continues to trend downward. Investors are shifting capital into the euro and Japanese yen, providing further momentum for gold prices. Central banks, too, are getting in on the action: Poland, for instance, has announced plans to raise its gold reserves to 700 tons, aiming to join the ranks of the world’s top ten gold-holding nations. This move, as noted by financial analysts, is part of a broader trend among central banks to stockpile assets that can’t be frozen or politicized, especially as global tensions simmer.

Meanwhile, the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index has dropped to its lowest point since 2021. While liquidity remains ample in the markets, investor sentiment has turned defensive, further boosting demand for gold. As of 6:30 AM on January 26, 2026 (Vietnam time), the spot price of gold stood at $5,021.76 per ounce, up 0.82% from the previous day—a figure that would have seemed almost fanciful just a few years ago.

Technical analysis supports the bullish outlook. On the weekly chart, gold prices have broken decisively above the $4,400 per ounce neckline, confirming an ascending triangle pattern. History offers a compelling precedent: in previous cycles during 2024 and 2025, similar breakouts led to price increases of $900 to $1,000 per ounce. If this pattern holds, the next technical target for gold is around $5,400 per ounce. The psychologically significant $5,000 level is currently being tested, and should it be surpassed, analysts suggest the rally could accelerate quickly in the coming weeks.

Another telling indicator is the sharply declining gold/silver ratio, which signals that silver is lagging behind the broader precious metals group. This often reflects the underlying strength of the entire precious metals market, with gold continuing to play the starring role.

Looking further ahead, experts argue that gold’s uptrend isn’t just a short-term story. It’s rooted in deeper structural shifts in the global financial system: waning confidence in US leadership, persistent geopolitical instability, and the ongoing accumulation of gold by central banks. If gold prices can hold above $4,400 per ounce, a move toward $5,400—and potentially even $6,000—seems feasible. On the flip side, a drop below $4,400 would invalidate the current breakout and could force a re-examination of lower support levels.

While gold grabs headlines for its spectacular ascent, Vietnam’s stock market tells a more subdued story. During the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, the VN-Index hovered around the psychological resistance level of 1,900 points. The market’s recovery, once brisk, has entered a new phase—one of supply-demand verification and cautious consolidation. Recent trading sessions have seen the index fluctuate within a narrow range, with liquidity declining compared to previous weeks. According to market analysts, this reflects a new wariness among buyers, who are now more reluctant to take risks with stock prices at elevated levels.

Sellers, particularly those holding large-cap stocks, have been locking in profits as the VN-Index approaches the 1,900-point threshold. This push and pull has prevented the market from gaining breakout momentum, though there hasn’t been any sign of deep selling pressure either. Recovery has been localized, mainly benefiting a handful of smaller stocks, while the broader market moves with caution. This atmosphere of restraint is, in itself, a significant development as it signals a market adjusting to more realistic expectations after a period of rapid gains.

Capital flows are becoming increasingly selective, set against a backdrop of stable macroeconomic conditions. The reduction in liquidity isn’t a sign of capital fleeing the market, but rather an indication that investors are shifting to a more observational, cautious approach. Short-term capital is being funneled into sectors with unique or cyclical stories—such as oil and gas, chemicals, and securities—while sectors lacking fresh drivers continue to face adjustment pressures.

Foreign investors have continued their net-selling streak on the HOSE exchange, putting pressure on key pillar stocks and, by extension, the VN-Index’s ability to break out. However, this selling is seen as more structural—a matter of portfolio rebalancing—than a broad-based withdrawal. Notably, foreign capital has been selectively allocated to banking and industrial real estate stocks, signaling a continued long-term positive outlook for the Vietnamese market.

From a macro perspective, both domestic and international environments remain relatively stable. The international market fluctuations observed last week were largely psychological and quickly subsided, minimizing the risk of contagion to emerging markets. At home, Vietnam’s money and foreign exchange markets have maintained balance, with low interbank interest rates reflecting abundant liquidity. The State Bank of Vietnam has continued its flexible operations through the open market, striking a balance between controlling money supply after a phase of rapid credit growth and maintaining financial system stability. This macroeconomic foundation acts as a stabilizing force for the stock market, limiting the risk of sharp corrections in the short term.

Technical analysis by the Bao Viet Securities Company (BVSC) suggests that the VN-Index’s short-term momentum is weakening, with liquidity falling as the index approaches resistance. Momentum indicators have yet to confirm a strong signal for a new upward wave. The combination of cautious capital flows and a stable macro backdrop provides a basis for the market to continue accumulating within a narrow range in the short term. Without new catalysts, this stability isn’t enough to spark a clear breakout, leading the market to move sideways with selective filtering rather than dramatic swings.

For investors, the message is clear: discipline and a tailored approach are more important than ever. Short-term players might consider partial disbursements during market shakeouts, but should avoid chasing technical rebounds and stick to strict risk management principles. For those with a medium- to long-term horizon, the stable macro environment and solid profit growth prospects for leading companies in 2026 remain key supports. Maintaining a reasonable allocation to stocks, focusing on sector leaders with strong financials and sustainable growth potential, appears to be the most prudent strategy as the market continues to consolidate and await new momentum.

In sum, while gold’s meteoric rise reflects global anxieties and a search for security, Vietnam’s stock market embodies the virtues of patience and selectivity. Both stories, in their own way, illustrate the delicate balancing act facing investors in an era of heightened uncertainty and rapid change.