As 2026 approaches, the global mining and metals industry stands at a crossroads, with cautious optimism prevailing amid a complex web of economic, technological, and geopolitical forces. The sector’s outlook, shaped by the relentless push for net-zero emissions, tightening supply constraints, and a heated race for critical minerals, is further complicated by the persistent shadow of China’s property market slump. According to BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, these dynamics are setting the stage for a year where opportunity and risk walk hand in hand, especially as governments and industries worldwide vie for the resources fueling the energy transition.
BMI’s latest mining and metals forecast characterizes 2026 as "cautiously optimistic," driven by reduced tariff uncertainties and robust demand from sectors tied to decarbonization. The report highlights that while the global push for net-zero is bolstering mineral and metal prices, the ongoing slowdown in China’s property sector continues to weigh heavily on base metals. This drag constrains potential price increases, even as tight supply conditions persist. "The ongoing slowdown in China’s property sector will continue to weigh on base metals, constraining potential price increases despite tight supply," the report states, underscoring the delicate balance facing the industry.
For precious metals, the outlook is somewhat brighter. BMI expects gold to average higher in 2026 than in 2025, though prices are likely to ease later in the year as the effects of global monetary stimulus wane and the US Federal Reserve wraps up its rate-cutting cycle. This nuanced forecast reflects the interplay between macroeconomic policy and commodity markets, with monetary decisions rippling through the sector.
Industrial policy is set to play a central role, particularly in the European Union and the United States. Governments in these regions are doubling down on efforts to expand domestic mining and processing capabilities while securing access to international supply chains through strategic investments, partnerships, and offtake deals. According to BMI, "industrial policy in the EU and United States will focus on expanding domestic mining and processing capabilities and ensuring international supply access through strategic investments and partnerships." This approach aims to reduce reliance on external suppliers and shield critical industries from global shocks.
Meanwhile, China is preparing to intensify its campaign to dominate critical mineral value chains. The country is expected to accelerate exploration, ramp up targeted capacities in battery and rare earth sectors, promote greener manufacturing practices, and deepen ties with resource-rich nations under clearer outbound investment regulations. Recent tariffs and restrictions on rare earth exports highlight the enduring importance of protectionist measures in China’s strategy. As BMI notes, "protectionist measures such as tariffs and export restrictions on rare earths will continue in China’s strategy." This signals a continued focus on securing supply chains and maintaining competitive advantage in the global market.
The race for critical materials, especially those essential for the energy transition, is also fueling a surge in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) across the mining sector. BMI projects that M&A activity will remain strong through 2026, with companies targeting assets in copper, lithium, and rare earth elements. While large-scale capital projects are still in play, there’s a noticeable shift toward phased and brownfield developments as firms navigate rising costs and regulatory uncertainty. "Phased and brownfield developments will become more common due to rising costs and regulatory uncertainty," BMI observes, reflecting the industry’s adaptability in the face of mounting challenges.
Despite concerns over resource nationalism, investment in frontier markets is expected to persist. Collaboration between mining operations and industries such as technology, automotive, and aerospace is projected to grow, driven by the need to secure reliable sources of critical minerals. BMI points out that supply bottlenecks could slow development in high-tech sectors like artificial intelligence, robotics, and defense, prompting downstream manufacturers to forge direct relationships with mining companies. "Supply bottlenecks could slow development in AI, robotics, and defense sectors, prompting manufacturers to secure materials directly from mining sites," the report explains, highlighting the emerging interconnectedness of these industries.
Building on priorities set in 2025, mining and metals companies are focusing on capital management, environmental stewardship, and responding to the rise of resource nationalism to create long-term value. According to EY’s Top 10 Business Risks and Opportunities for Mining and Metals Companies in 2025, firms are leveraging mergers, divestments, and joint ventures to navigate macroeconomic uncertainty. Environmental efforts, from waste management to water conservation, remain central, while geopolitical risks influence ownership structures, regulatory compliance, and stakeholder engagement.
Resource and reserve depletion has emerged as a formidable challenge. As EY’s report notes, "This complicated problem is driven by interwoven factors. Declining ore grades increase the costs of extraction. Exploration budgets are up, but so are costs, and fewer discoveries are being made." The sector faces the unprecedented task of producing more mineral ores in the next 30 years than in the previous 7,000, a daunting prospect given regulatory delays, high capital costs, skilled labor shortages, and rising royalties and taxes. These hurdles make timely execution of new projects increasingly difficult.
Interestingly, while governance, cyber risks, digital strategies, and workforce issues have slipped from the top 10 risks, they remain critical. EY cautions, "The de-prioritization of governance was unexpected and perhaps worrying, given miners are progressing new projects in countries with potentially weaker regulatory oversight." The growing integration of digital technologies and persistent talent gaps make cyber and digital risks part of daily operations, underscoring the need for vigilance even as attention shifts elsewhere.
Against this backdrop, financial markets are taking note of shifting strategic momentum. On December 9, 2025, the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) was upgraded from hold to buy, a move attributed to renewed strategic momentum in the sector. According to Seeking Alpha, REMX stands to benefit from U.S. government investment in MP Materials and the potential for U.S.-Brazil rare earth cooperation, which could reduce reliance on China. Brazil’s significant 23% share of global rare earth reserves positions REMX for upside if U.S. access improves, particularly in fast-growing fields like robotics and AI.
However, risks remain. Brazil’s deep trade ties with China and regional geopolitical instability could complicate efforts to diversify supply chains. Nevertheless, current U.S. policy signals a bullish setup for REMX, reflecting broader trends in the strategic metals market. As the analyst notes, "REMX benefits from U.S. government investment in MP Materials and potential U.S.-Brazil rare earth cooperation, reducing reliance on China." This evolving landscape is a testament to the interconnectedness of policy, markets, and the global race for resources.
With 2026 on the horizon, the mining and metals sector is bracing for a year of both promise and peril. The drive for decarbonization, supply security, and technological advancement is pushing companies and governments to rethink strategies, forge new alliances, and confront old challenges with renewed urgency. The outcome of this high-stakes contest will shape not only commodity markets but also the future of industries—and economies—worldwide.
