As the world braces for the second half of 2026, scientists, humanitarian organizations, and government agencies are sounding the alarm: a powerful El Niño event is unfolding, and its impacts are poised to ripple across continents, ecosystems, and economies in ways that may be both unprecedented and deeply disruptive. With forecasts converging on the likelihood of a very strong—perhaps even historic—El Niño, communities from California to Central Africa are preparing for a year marked by extremes.
According to a June 15, 2026 report from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), the coming El Niño is virtually certain, with a “very high likelihood of being very strong and even turning into an unprecedented event.” Seasonal climate models suggest that extreme heat will build across the tropics and subtropics starting in September, peaking between December 2026 and February 2027, and potentially lingering into spring 2027. This warming is expected to spread across North and South America, Central America, Africa, the Euro-Asian continent, and Australia. Even Europe, which typically sees colder-than-normal autumns during El Niño, may instead experience a flip to warmer conditions as the event intensifies.
But the changes won’t be limited to temperature. The JRC warns of heightened drought risk in large swathes of Australia, Southeast Asia, southern Africa, Central America, the Sahel, and the Indian subcontinent. Conversely, regions such as East Africa, parts of Central and East Asia, and broad areas of the Americas are expected to receive more rainfall—a double-edged sword that, in places with degraded or saturated soils, could lead to erosion, nutrient loss, and waterlogging rather than agricultural bounty.
The humanitarian implications are stark. Using its new INFORM Warning tool, which combines hazard forecasts with data on conflict, food insecurity, displacement, and economic conditions, the JRC has identified several Central African nations—including Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, and Chad—as facing the highest humanitarian risks globally over the next six months. These countries, already grappling with active conflict, mass displacement, and severe food insecurity, are expected to see their vulnerabilities amplified by El Niño’s effects. In the Americas, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Haiti are singled out as places where worsening dry conditions will compound existing crises, likely leading to further humanitarian deterioration.
Food security is another major concern. El Niño reshapes agricultural conditions worldwide, with impacts predicted for Sub-Saharan Africa, India, China, Australia, and Brazil. The JRC report projects that global prices for durum wheat could rise sharply, maize prices may see a slight increase, while soybean and Hard Red winter wheat prices are expected to decline. Rice, meanwhile, is forecasted to follow a more complex trajectory, with an initial price dip followed by a subsequent increase. The report cautions that its models, especially for the most extreme scenarios, are venturing beyond any historical precedent, underscoring the uncertainty and potential severity of the situation.
Displacement is another layer of risk, though the full scale remains largely invisible. Past El Niño events have triggered different responses depending on regional hazards, and data on drought-related displacement is limited. Nonetheless, the JRC predicts that the 2026-27 El Niño will exacerbate existing patterns of displacement, particularly in East Africa, Central Africa, the Central American Dry Corridor, and parts of South and Southeast Asia. Vulnerable populations already on the move—or unable to move—face the prospect of being forced to relocate again as climate hazards intensify.
These warnings are echoed by the International Fund for Animal Welfare (IFAW), which on June 15, 2026, described the coming El Niño as a potential “catastrophe” for wildlife, communities, and ecosystems across Asia, Australia, and Africa. “We’re heading into a year that could be catastrophic. The impacts on wildlife, landscapes and communities could be immense,” said Matt Collis, IFAW’s senior director of policy. The organization stresses that while El Niño is a natural climate pattern, climate change is now amplifying its effects, making extreme weather more intense, frequent, and destructive. In regions like Australia and Africa, where ecosystems have historically adapted to severe weather, the increasing pace and severity of events are outstripping nature’s ability to recover.
Australian climate expert Professor Brendan Mackey warns that the country faces heightened fire risk this year, with low moisture content in vegetation after a dry winter and a hot spring creating “dangerous bushfire conditions for eastern and southern Australia.” He points to the devastating “Black Summer” of 2019-20 as an example of what can happen when major El Niño events coincide with record drought and heat. Habitat loss and fragmentation are compounding the problem, making it harder for animals to escape fires or find refuge during droughts.
IFAW is calling for governments to fundamentally rethink disaster preparedness and climate change action, urging them to place wildlife and ecosystems at the center of planning. Phillip Kuvawoga, IFAW’s senior director of conservation, advocates for “climate action, technology-enabled early warning systems, and landscape-level climate proofing” as ways to safeguard both human well-being and biodiversity. “Through climate action, technology-enabled early warning systems, and landscape-level climate proofing, we can safeguard communities and ecosystems together, ensuring human well-being and biodiversity are protected today and strengthened for generations to come,” Kuvawoga said.
In the United States, the Los Angeles Times reported that El Niño has already arrived and could become one of the largest on record, with a 63% chance of being “very strong” by year’s end and an 88% chance of being at least “strong.” California, in particular, is bracing for a winter that could be both “wet and wild.” Past very strong El Niños—such as those in 1982-83 and 1997-98—brought more than double the typical annual rainfall to coastal Southern California. While the Pacific Northwest may get drier winters, the southern U.S. is likely in for stormier weather, with increased odds of heavy precipitation events and large-scale floods. At the same time, a wet winter could offer some relief to the drought-stricken Colorado River basin.
El Niño’s impacts extend beyond rainfall. The phenomenon can cause high-tide flooding along the U.S. West Coast, raising local sea levels by six to ten inches during the winter, and increasing the risk of coastal erosion—a threat made worse by decades of sea level rise. The 2015-16 El Niño, for example, brought record coastal erosion to many California beaches. Warmer ocean temperatures, another hallmark of El Niño, can disrupt marine ecosystems, attracting new species (including sharks and tropical fish) while putting stress on others. Scientists have observed declines in kelp forests, increased harmful algal blooms, and die-offs of sea lions, seals, and marine birds during past strong El Niños, often linked to food shortages and disease.
Underlying all these forecasts is a message of urgency and opportunity. El Niño is one of the world’s most predictable climate phenomena, offering governments and humanitarian organizations a valuable window to prepare. The JRC emphasizes that early warnings can help pre-position resources and trigger anticipatory funding, potentially mitigating some of the worst impacts. Europe’s OceanEye initiative, for instance, aims to strengthen ocean observation and forecasting, providing critical data for tracking El Niño and other large-scale climate drivers.
As 2026 unfolds, the world faces a test of resilience, cooperation, and foresight. Whether the coming El Niño becomes a historic disaster or a managed challenge will depend on how quickly and effectively societies respond to the warnings now echoing from scientists and advocates worldwide.