Across continents and cultures, a quiet revolution is unfolding in family life. Fewer children are being born, not just in the United States or China, but in countries as different as Finland and Japan. The world’s population, once expected to surge endlessly upward, is now entering an era of decline and aging, with profound consequences for economies, communities, and the very fabric of society.
Consider the story of Ashley Evancho, a 32-year-old financial planner from Buffalo, New York. She and her husband, Nick, made a deliberate choice: one child is enough. "I don't need another one. I don't want another one. I love having only one child. It is, I think, a very elegant choice because I still feel like I have balance in my life," she told NPR. Evancho’s decision, deeply personal as it may be, is emblematic of a much larger shift. Last year, the U.S. birth rate hit an all-time low, continuing a decades-long trend of declining family sizes. According to NPR, this is not just an American story — it’s a global one.
China, for instance, has seen its population begin to shrink, even after the government ended its controversial one-child policy. Over the next two decades, researchers project China’s working-age population will plunge by more than 200 million people. In Italy and Japan, deaths already outnumber births. The consequences are visible and sometimes dramatic: in Franklin County, New York, a 10% population drop led to the closure of its hospital’s maternity ward. Jeremy Evans, who oversees economic development in the area, laments, "Our population will continue to decline. More worrisome to us is the decline in population of younger people."
What’s driving this change? The reasons are as varied as the families themselves. In Finland, where the government has provided generous support for parents since the 1930s — including its famous "baby boxes" filled with supplies for newborns — the total fertility rate has fallen below 1.3 children per woman, far under the replacement rate of 2.1. Eeva Patomeri, a spokesperson for Kela, Finland’s social insurance agency, noted that demand for the baby boxes has dropped so much that parents were still receiving last year’s boxes well into 2025. "Sometimes the box, we start delivering it in spring, and now it was August, and that's because of low birth rates," she said.
Despite the extensive support — paid parental leave, subsidized childcare, and universal healthcare — births have fallen sharply across the Nordic region since 2010. Anneli Miettinen, Kela’s research manager, told NPR, "So we cannot really any longer say that it's our good family policies that explain good fertility in the Nordics." Immigration has helped offset population decline somewhat, but officials remain concerned about an aging population and shrinking workforce. As Anna Rotkirch of the Family Federation of Finland explained, there’s a growing gap between what young people say they want — often imagining a life with a partner, a dog, and three children — and the reality. "It really breaks my heart, because I'm like, that's not going to happen. If the world goes on like it's now, you know, half of you, this is just not going to happen," Rotkirch said.
Young people’s reasons for delaying or forgoing children are complex and deeply personal. Many are focusing on education and career, and those who do have children are often waiting until later in life. Technology, too, plays a role. Rotkirch points out that online interactions can sometimes replace the physical connections that lead to relationships and families. Milla Tuokkola, a 34-year-old television writer in Helsinki, described her struggles with online dating and harassment: "They're just very porn-brained…objectifying. I feel like they're being radicalized online when they're young." For Tuokkola, the difficulty in finding a safe, reliable partner has been a real barrier to family formation.
Economic uncertainty and concerns about the future weigh heavily on many would-be parents. In China, 20-year-old Mia Li told NPR, "Having children requires financial support. But if the economy goes down, how can you possibly afford to raise them?" In Finland, Poa Pohjola, 38, and her partner Wilhelm Blomberg made a conscious decision to have a baby after years of enjoying their independence, but Pohjola admitted that economic stability and memories of past financial crises gave her pause. Blomberg added, "We are in such turbulent times, and it's hard to, like, have a sense that you can control things. And one thing you can control is whether you're having a baby or not, as it's so hard to predict what the future will bring."
These anxieties are echoed in the United States. The average American was 28 years old in the 1970s; today, that figure has climbed to 39. Lant Pritchett, a visiting professor at the London School of Economics, warns, "It's hard to maintain the dynamism of the economy. I mean, you know, you can't get people to do all kinds of work, from electricians to plumbers to everything else." The basic assumptions of modern capitalism — ever-growing markets, a steady influx of young workers, expanding consumer bases — are being upended. "Hard to tell what's going to happen when things that have never happened before happen. We just don't have any example of countries doing this successfully," Pritchett said.
Not all economists are alarmed. Claudia Goldin at Harvard University, for instance, told NPR, "I am not worried about that. Scarcity is everywhere. Trade-offs are everywhere. There is no optimal birth rate." But Melissa Kearney of the University of Notre Dame sees real risks as the cost of raising children rises and the benefits of remaining childless grow. "The more we become a society that's moving away from one oriented towards children. Then the cost of having kids go up, and the benefits of remaining childless and pursuing a childless life, the expectations of the workforce, all of that pushes towards amplifying the trend we're already on," Kearney said.
Governments are scrambling for solutions. From authoritarian China and Russia to progressive Canada and Finland, policymakers have tried everything from cash incentives to expanded benefits. Yet, as Miettinen observes, "These types of policies may not be enough any longer, but we need to invent something else to support young adults." Rotkirch believes the answer lies in listening: "Prioritize listening to young people — their wishes for family formation — and support them."
For many, the decision whether or not to have children is the last bit of control in an unpredictable world. As societies adjust to this new reality, the ripple effects will touch everything from local economies and housing markets to the structure of pension systems and the future of work. One thing is clear: the era of ever-growing families is over, and the world must adapt to a future where smaller families are the new normal.
