The stage is set for a blockbuster weekend in the Australian Football League as the third week of the 2025 AFL finals gets underway. Fans are gearing up for two highly anticipated matchups: Geelong and Hawthorn will lock horns on Friday night, followed by a twilight preliminary final clash between Collingwood and Brisbane on Saturday. With team selections finalized, injury updates announced, and odds swinging, the stakes have never felt higher. Let’s dive into the key storylines, strategic nuances, and the emotional pulse of these critical fixtures.
Friday night’s encounter between Geelong and Hawthorn is more than just a finals match—it’s a renewal of a storied rivalry. Both teams head into the clash unchanged, a decision that speaks volumes about the coaches’ trust in their lineups. For Geelong, this means Rhys Stanley remains sidelined, as the Cats look to maintain the consistency that has served them well in high-pressure moments.
The statistics favor Geelong, especially when it comes to capitalizing on turnovers. Over the past five seasons, the Cats have not lost a single final when they’ve outscored their opponents from turnovers. That’s a telling edge, considering the last time Hawthorn managed to outscore Geelong in this category was way back in Round 18 of the 2019 season. Will history repeat, or are the Hawks poised to flip the script?
Bookmakers seem to be leaning towards the Cats, with Pointsbet listing Geelong as $1.57 favorites over Hawthorn’s $2.45. ESPN’s tipsters echo that sentiment, predicting a 12-point victory for Geelong. Yet, in finals footy, anything can happen, and Hawthorn’s ability to disrupt the Cats’ rhythm remains a tantalizing question mark.
Saturday’s twilight preliminary final between Collingwood and Brisbane is already buzzing with intrigue, thanks in part to some significant team news. Collingwood’s star small forward Bobby Hill, who has struggled to regain his spot in the senior side after a disrupted second half of the season, will not feature against the Lions. Coach Craig McRae made the tough call on Thursday, citing a combination of factors, including Hill’s preparation and recent match fitness.
"Bobby won't play. We've made a decision on that," McRae told reporters. "I told him before training, just based on a lot of little things. The conversations were hard for him to hear but it's the reality of where we're at right now with his preparation. Credit to him, he trained really, really well and that shows how far he's come in the last period. He's working hard to get back and this is not permanent as I said to him, it's not permanent, but this week he's not available."
Hill’s absence is felt not only for his on-field flair but also for the narrative of resilience he’s built since winning the Norm Smith Medal in 2023. Personal reasons have kept him away from the club at times this year, impacting his match fitness. Since being subbed out early in Round 21, Hill’s only competitive outing has been a VFL scratch match a fortnight ago. Still, McRae left the door ajar for a possible Grand Final return, should the Pies advance.
Collingwood’s lineup sees Jeremy Howe come in for Wil Parker, though Howe’s selection wasn’t set in stone until the match committee weighed his recent workloads and overall fitness. McRae explained, "Howey's going to ask a lot of questions too, we're going to go to match committee and make a decision on him. We're going to marry up all of his loads and how much he's been able to do in recent time and we'll decide this afternoon (if he plays). We've got to weigh up right now is he 'fit to play or fit to perform?' That's been our mantra all year based on lessons learnt last year and the high performance team will present those numbers in front of us around loads and other things and then we've just got to weigh up what's best for the team this week."
Another subplot for the Magpies is the condition of Brody Mihocek, who has been dealing with a toe injury. Despite the setback, McRae confirmed Mihocek will play, emphasizing his value both on the training track and during games. "Brody will play. It's hard to keep him out of the team, even on the training track he's out there training really well this week," McRae said. "He's fit and available." Mason Cox, who played a crucial role in Collingwood’s qualifying final win over Adelaide earlier in the season, will also retain his spot.
Brisbane, meanwhile, heads into Saturday’s clash with an unchanged lineup—an indicator of both form and fitness across the squad. The Lions will be looking to exploit any uncertainty in the Collingwood camp, especially given the Magpies’ late lineup decisions and the absence of Hill.
Strategically, the numbers tell an intriguing story. This finals series has been a statistical anomaly: only half of the winning teams have actually won the inside 50 count, but all six winners have managed to retain possession with kicks inside 50 more often than their opponents. That’s a crucial distinction, as Collingwood currently ranks fourth in the league for kicks inside 50, while Brisbane languishes in 16th. Will the Magpies’ efficiency in this area prove decisive, or can the Lions find a way to buck the trend?
Pundits are hedging their bets accordingly. ESPN tips Collingwood to edge out Brisbane by seven points, while Pointsbet has the Magpies at $1.69 favorites to the Lions’ $2.25. Yet, as any seasoned footy fan knows, finals are where reputations are made—and upsets can come out of nowhere.
Beyond the numbers and odds, there’s a palpable sense of urgency and anticipation. For Geelong and Hawthorn, Friday night is about legacy and proving who can seize the moment under the brightest lights. For Collingwood and Brisbane, Saturday’s twilight showdown is a test of resilience, adaptability, and the ability to perform when it matters most.
As the AFL finals roll into this critical weekend, supporters from all corners are bracing for drama, heartbreak, and maybe a dash of magic. With unchanged teams, high-profile omissions, and tactical battles set to unfold, both matches promise to deliver the kind of spectacle that keeps fans coming back year after year. The action is about to kick off, and with so much on the line, every moment will count. Stay tuned—the next chapter in this finals series is about to be written.
