As Israeli forces intensified their air and ground operations in Gaza City on September 24, 2025, the streets of the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza became a scene of hurried movement and uncertainty. Displaced Palestinians, carrying what belongings they could manage, streamed southwards, seeking safety from the relentless offensive that has upended daily life for hundreds of thousands. According to AFP, the Israeli military’s ongoing campaign to capture Gaza City has led to the mass displacement of civilians, with many families forced to abandon their homes and livelihoods in search of refuge.
The scale of the humanitarian crisis is stark. Gaza’s civil defence agency reported that Israeli forces killed dozens of people across the Palestinian territory on September 24 alone. The agency’s statements, as cited by AFP, painted a grim picture: as the military pressed its assault, the death toll continued to mount, and the number of displaced soared. The relentless nature of the conflict has left many wondering just how many lives have been lost—and how accurate those numbers can possibly be amid the chaos.
That very question—how to determine the true cost in human lives—was at the heart of a recent discussion hosted by Sun political columnist Brian Lilley. In a candid conversation with retired army officers John Spencer and Richard Kemp, Lilley explored the immense difficulties involved in establishing an accurate death toll in Gaza. Both Spencer and Kemp, drawing on their extensive military experience, highlighted the fog of war and the inherent challenges in data collection during active conflict.
“It’s extremely difficult to get a precise count in the midst of ongoing hostilities,” Spencer remarked during the interview, as reported by Sun. “There are so many moving parts—civilians fleeing, ongoing strikes, and the destruction of infrastructure that would normally help track these numbers.” Kemp echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that information can be slow to emerge and is often subject to verification challenges. “You’re relying on sources that may themselves be under duress, or that have their own reasons for reporting certain figures,” he said.
The issue is not merely academic. Accurate casualty figures are crucial for humanitarian response, international diplomacy, and for the historical record. Yet, as the fighting in Gaza has shown, even the best-intentioned organizations struggle to provide numbers that can be universally trusted. Civil defence agencies, local authorities, and international observers each offer their own counts, sometimes with significant discrepancies. According to Sun, these inconsistencies are not necessarily the result of deliberate misinformation, but often stem from the sheer complexity and danger of data gathering in a war zone.
On September 24, the world’s attention was drawn once again to the plight of Gaza’s civilians. Photographs distributed by AFP showed lines of people—men, women, and children—moving along dusty roads, their faces etched with exhaustion and fear. Many carried only what they could hold: a bag of clothes, a bundle of bedding, or a child on their hip. The Nuseirat refugee camp, once a place of relative stability for some, had become yet another waypoint in a seemingly endless journey for safety.
The Israeli military’s offensive, aimed at seizing control of Gaza City, has been described by officials as a necessary step to dismantle militant infrastructure. However, as reported by AFP, the operation has come at a tremendous cost to the civilian population. The civil defence agency’s claim that dozens were killed across the territory on a single day underscores the scale of the violence. For many outside observers, these numbers are more than statistics—they represent families shattered and communities uprooted.
In his conversation with Spencer and Kemp, Lilley pressed further on the question of reliability. How do agencies on the ground compile their figures, and what checks exist to ensure accuracy? Spencer explained that, in many cases, local civil defence and health agencies are the first to report casualties, drawing on hospital admissions, morgue records, and eyewitness accounts. “But in a situation like Gaza, where hospitals themselves may be targets or overwhelmed, even these methods can break down,” he noted.
Kemp added that international organizations, such as the United Nations, often attempt to corroborate local reports with their own field teams. However, access is frequently restricted due to ongoing fighting or security concerns. “Sometimes, you have to wait days or even weeks before a full picture emerges,” Kemp said. “And by then, the narrative may have already been set.”
The challenge of verifying casualty figures is further complicated by the political dimensions of the conflict. Both sides—Israeli authorities and Palestinian officials—have been accused by critics of manipulating numbers for propaganda purposes. Yet, as the discussion on Sun made clear, the underlying difficulties are less about deliberate distortion and more about the harsh realities of war. When infrastructure is destroyed, communications are cut, and entire neighborhoods are emptied, the usual mechanisms for tracking and reporting deaths simply do not function as they should.
For the displaced Palestinians in Nuseirat and beyond, the uncertainty is personal. Many have lost contact with relatives, unsure if they are alive or among the growing list of casualties. Aid agencies have struggled to keep up with the needs of the displaced, who require everything from food and water to medical care and psychological support. The United Nations and international NGOs have repeatedly called for humanitarian corridors and ceasefires to allow for aid delivery and evacuation of the wounded, but such appeals often go unheeded amid the fighting.
As the conflict drags on, the question of the true death toll remains unresolved. For journalists like Brian Lilley and experts such as Spencer and Kemp, the pursuit of accurate information is both a professional and moral imperative. “We owe it to the victims to get it right,” Spencer said, his words reflecting a sentiment shared by many who watch the crisis unfold from afar. “But sometimes, the truth is just out of reach, hidden by the chaos of war.”
In the end, the story of Gaza in September 2025 is not just one of numbers, but of people—families uprooted, lives lost, and a community struggling to survive in the face of overwhelming odds. The search for the real toll of the conflict continues, even as the world watches, waits, and hopes for an end to the violence.