California Governor Gavin Newsom has emerged as the early favorite among Democratic voters for the 2028 presidential race, according to a comprehensive new survey that also highlights shifting generational tides within both major U.S. parties. The Yale Youth Poll, conducted from October 29 to November 11, 2025, surveyed 3,426 registered voters nationwide, including a significant oversample of 1,706 individuals aged 18 to 34. The results, published by multiple outlets including Mediaite, The Economic Times, and The Daily Beast, paint a nuanced portrait of Democratic and Republican preferences as the nation looks ahead to its next presidential contest.
Newsom leads the field of potential Democratic contenders, securing 25 percent support among Democratic voters. He also boasts an impressive 85 percent electability rating, with a strong majority of Democratic respondents believing he is best positioned to defeat a Republican challenger in the general election. Former Vice President Kamala Harris follows with 18 percent support, while Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stands at 16 percent. Pete Buttigieg, the former Transportation Secretary, garners 14 percent, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is further behind with 4 percent.
While Newsom’s overall lead is clear, the poll reveals sharp generational and demographic divides within the Democratic electorate. Among the youngest cohort—Democrats aged 18 to 22—Ocasio-Cortez is the clear favorite, winning 30 percent support, with Harris at 20 percent and Newsom at 12 percent. This trend intensifies among those aged 23 to 29, where Ocasio-Cortez’s support swells to 35 percent, compared to 15 percent for Harris and 14 percent for Newsom. Even in the 30-34 age bracket, Ocasio-Cortez leads with 29 percent, Newsom holds 15 percent, and Harris 14 percent.
However, as Democratic voters age, their preferences shift. Democrats aged 35 to 44 show a preference for Harris (30 percent), followed by Ocasio-Cortez (25 percent), Newsom (16 percent), and Buttigieg (8 percent). Among those 45 to 64, support is more evenly split: 23 percent for Harris, 22 percent for Newsom, 15 percent for Buttigieg, and 11 percent for Ocasio-Cortez. Seniors aged 65 and older strongly back Newsom, with 38 percent support, while Buttigieg (18 percent), Harris (11 percent), Shapiro (6 percent), and Ocasio-Cortez (5 percent) trail further behind.
The demographic breakdown underscores the complex coalition that makes up the Democratic Party. According to The Daily Beast, Ocasio-Cortez is most popular with voters under 35, Newsom leads among white, male, and Hispanic Democrats, and Harris is favored by female and Black Democrats. This diversity of support presents both opportunities and challenges for the party as it seeks to unify behind a nominee.
Speculation about the intentions of these leading figures is already swirling. Newsom, set to step down as governor in January 2027 after two terms, has been traveling to battleground states ahead of the 2026 midterm elections to campaign for Democratic candidates. In an October 2025 interview on CBS Sunday Morning, Newsom addressed the presidential rumors directly, saying, “I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t thinking about running for president in 2028. I think the biggest challenge for anyone who runs for any office is that people see right through you if you don’t have that ‘why.’”
Harris, who lost her 2024 White House bid to President Donald Trump, has also left the door open for another campaign. In a BBC interview promoting her book 107 Days, she declared, “I am not done,” and added that she could “possibly” still be president one day. Ocasio-Cortez, for her part, has not publicly hinted at a run, but allies told The Hill, “Why wouldn’t she be considering this?” calling her “one of the biggest voices in the Democratic Party.”
The Yale Youth Poll’s findings are particularly notable for their insight into the attitudes of younger voters. Democrats maintain robust support among those under 35, holding double-digit leads with every under-35 age band on the generic congressional ballot. This generational strength stands in stark contrast to the Republican Party’s fortunes with younger voters.
On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance leads a Trump-free 2028 primary with 51 percent support among GOP voters, according to Mediaite. However, when respondents are asked to imagine an unconstitutional third term for Donald Trump—a scenario that, while legally impossible due to the 22nd Amendment, was nonetheless included in the poll—Trump receives 50 percent support, pushing Vance down to 19 percent. This dynamic underscores how deeply the Republican Party remains tied to Trump’s brand and legacy.
Yet, Trump’s grip on the party appears to be loosening among younger Republicans. The poll found that Republicans under 30 are less loyal to Trump, and he does not win majority support from them. Trump’s overall support among people aged 18 to 34 has fallen sharply since a brief uptick in spring 2025, with disapproval margins now running 30 points or more. Democrats, by contrast, are increasingly favored by younger voters, suggesting a potential long-term shift in the electorate.
Strategically, the parties are at a crossroads. As Mediaite reports, 55 percent of GOP voters want the party to prioritize turning out its base, seeking more Trumpism rather than less. Democrats, meanwhile, are split between energizing their core supporters and moving to the political center—a dilemma reflected in the generational and ideological diversity of their leading candidates. Newsom, with his blend of experience and perceived broad appeal, is being cast as a compromise candidate who might bridge the gap between the party’s younger and older factions.
Despite the intense speculation, it is important to note that no major candidate has formally launched a campaign for 2028. Presidential hopefuls typically register with the Federal Election Commission and announce their intentions in the spring of the election year. For now, the Democratic field remains wide open, with Newsom, Harris, Ocasio-Cortez, and Buttigieg all fueling rumors but holding their cards close to the vest.
The Yale Youth Poll, conducted online in English by Verasight, has a margin of error of ±1.7 percentage points for the full sample and ±2.4 percentage points for younger Americans. Its detailed demographic breakdowns and head-to-head matchups offer a revealing glimpse into the evolving landscape of American politics as the 2028 race slowly takes shape.
With the next presidential election still years away, the early poll numbers serve as both a snapshot of current sentiment and a preview of the debates and divisions likely to define the coming contest. For now, all eyes are on Newsom, Harris, Ocasio-Cortez, and the shifting allegiances of America’s youngest voters.
