French politics is rarely short on drama, but the events unfolding in Paris this weekend could well decide the fate of the government itself. On Saturday, October 25, 2025, lawmakers gathered to vote on a contentious wealth tax, a move that could either stabilize the country’s finances or plunge it into deeper political chaos. The stakes are high: with France’s deficit and debt soaring, and a divided parliament unable to agree on much, the outcome of this vote could determine whether Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s government survives the week.
The roots of the crisis go back to last year, when President Emmanuel Macron, seeking to shore up his authority, called snap parliamentary elections. Instead of consolidating power, the move backfired: Macron’s centrist bloc lost its majority, while both the far right and the left-wing New Popular Front alliance gained seats. The result? A parliament split into three bitterly opposed factions, with no group able to govern alone, as reported by France 24 and AFP.
Since then, France has cycled through three prime ministers in just over a year. The latest, Sébastien Lecornu, took office promising to succeed where his predecessors failed: passing tough austerity measures to rein in spending. But with the government under intense pressure to pass a spending bill by the end of 2025, the Socialists, who hold the balance of power, have thrown down the gauntlet. Their demand? A tax on the ultra-wealthy, or they’ll bring down the government as soon as Monday, October 27.
It’s a high-wire act. Earlier this month, Lecornu narrowly survived a confidence vote by agreeing to suspend a deeply unpopular pensions reform—another key demand from the Socialists. But the left-wing party has made clear that this concession isn’t enough. Without a new wealth tax, they say, Lecornu’s days in office are numbered. According to France 24, the Socialists have threatened to use their crucial swing vote to topple the government if the levy isn’t included in next year’s budget.
The proposal at the heart of the debate is the so-called "Zucman tax," named after French economist Gabriel Zucman. Originally, Zucman’s plan targeted around 1,800 of France’s wealthiest households, aiming to raise approximately €20 billion ($27 billion) per year. The design was straightforward: anyone with at least €100 million in assets would pay a minimum tax of 2 percent on their wealth. As AFP and France 24 note, this would be a significant new burden on France’s richest, including high-profile billionaires like Bernard Arnault, whose fortune reportedly jumped by $19 billion in a single day last week.
But as the parliamentary debate began, the Socialists faced pushback from both the government and the far right. The main sticking point? The tax’s reach. Lecornu’s government, along with right-wing parties, opposes taxing so-called "professional assets"—the businesses and investments that form the backbone of many fortunes. Instead, the government has floated an alternative: taxing wealth management holdings with at least €5 million in assets, a narrower approach that would exempt many business owners.
Seeking a compromise, the Socialists revised their proposal. They now suggest a minimum 3 percent tax on assets above €10 million, but with a key concession: family businesses and "innovative" companies would be excluded. The hope is to win over enough lawmakers to pass the tax without alienating business interests or provoking another political crisis. Parliament was set to debate this revised version on Saturday, with the clock ticking toward the end-of-year deadline for the budget bill.
Yet not everyone is convinced that compromise is the answer. Gabriel Zucman himself has been outspoken about the risks of watering down his original proposal. Speaking to France Inter radio on October 25, Zucman warned, "Creating a tax riddled with loopholes, offering opportunities for evasion… is condemning oneself to failure." His message was clear: half-measures won’t deliver the revenue France needs, nor will they satisfy public demands for fairness and accountability.
Meanwhile, the broader political context remains fraught. The government is under intense pressure to rein in its ballooning deficit and debt, both of which have soared in recent years due to pandemic spending and sluggish economic growth. International investors are watching closely, wary of instability in the eurozone’s second-largest economy. Failure to pass a credible budget could have far-reaching consequences, from higher borrowing costs to diminished confidence in France’s ability to govern itself.
Inside parliament, the mood is tense. The Socialists, emboldened by their kingmaker status, see the wealth tax as a test of both the government’s resolve and its commitment to social justice. "This is about fairness," one Socialist lawmaker said, according to France 24. "At a time when ordinary people are being asked to tighten their belts, the richest should do their part." But the far right and many centrists argue that targeting the wealthy could drive investment abroad and hurt the very businesses that create jobs.
Prime Minister Lecornu, for his part, is walking a political tightrope. Having already suspended pension reforms to appease the left, he now faces criticism from the right for caving to pressure and from the left for not going far enough. His government’s preference for a more limited tax on wealth management holdings reflects a desire to avoid alienating business leaders, but it’s unclear whether this will be enough to keep his coalition together.
All sides are acutely aware of the stakes. If the Socialists follow through on their threat to topple the government, France could be plunged into fresh elections or yet another round of coalition negotiations—hardly a recipe for stability. The specter of gridlock looms large, with the country’s finances, international reputation, and social fabric hanging in the balance.
As lawmakers prepare to cast their votes, the outcome remains uncertain. Will the revised wealth tax proposal satisfy enough factions to pass? Or will entrenched divisions doom the government to collapse? For now, all eyes are on Paris, where the future of France’s leadership—and its approach to inequality—will be decided in the crucible of parliamentary debate.
Whatever the outcome, the events of this weekend underscore a deeper truth: in France, questions of wealth, fairness, and political power are as contentious as ever. The coming days will reveal whether compromise is possible—or whether the country is headed for yet another political upheaval.