Flu cases and hospital admissions are finally on the decline across both Scotland and England, bringing a much-needed glimmer of hope as the UK heads into the heart of winter. Yet, health officials are urging the public not to let their guard down just yet. The virus, they warn, is still very much in circulation, and the risk of a resurgence remains high—especially as families gather for festive celebrations.
According to the latest data from Public Health Scotland, lab-confirmed flu cases in Scotland dropped to 1,297 in the week ending December 21, 2025—a significant 35% decrease from the previous week’s 1,994 cases. Hospital admissions followed the same trend, falling to 679 from 950 the week before. These figures, published by BBC and corroborated by Public Health Scotland, signal a second consecutive week of declining flu activity north of the border.
Health Secretary Neil Gray didn’t mince words when he addressed the public, saying, “Vaccination remains the best protection against the virus and I encourage everyone who is eligible to come forward for theirs if they have not yet done so.” As of December 21, more than 1.3 million adult flu vaccines had been delivered in Scotland—over 111,000 more than this point last winter. On top of that, more than 516,000 children have received their flu jabs, bringing the total number of vaccinations this season to over 1.8 million.
Dr Kim Marsh, who leads the viral respiratory pathogens team at Public Health Scotland, explained, “Following an early start to the season, the latest data suggests that flu cases and hospitalisations in Scotland continue to decrease. While each flu season is unique and peaks are not always predictable, we have now seen reassuring declines across a range of age groups and data systems, including reductions in case numbers in younger age groups.”
Still, Marsh and other experts remain cautious. “In some flu seasons there can be more than one wave of flu because different types of flu circulate at different times. At present, flu A is the main strain circulating. However, in Scotland we typically see flu B circulating in the first few months of the new year, and this can cause a second rise in flu cases. That’s why it’s so important to come forward if you’re eligible for a flu vaccine this winter and haven’t had it yet.”
Public Health Scotland is also reminding people with flu symptoms—like cough or high temperature—to stay off work, avoid visiting hospitals or care homes, and limit contact with vulnerable groups such as babies, the elderly, and those with underlying health conditions. Good hygiene remains a cornerstone of prevention: covering your mouth and nose with a tissue when coughing or sneezing, washing hands regularly with soap and warm water, and considering face coverings if you must go out are all recommended steps.
Separate data from the National Records of Scotland offers some cautious optimism: the increase in flu-related deaths appears to be slowing down. There were 73 deaths with flu listed as the underlying cause in the week ending December 15, up from 67 the week before. However, the previous week had seen the number of deaths more than double, suggesting the worst may be over for now—though officials aren’t declaring victory just yet.
First Minister John Swinney, anticipating high demand on the health system during the holidays, advised Scots to visit accident and emergency departments only for genuine emergencies. “Services are expected to be exceptionally busy over the festive period,” he warned, echoing concerns that increased socialising could still fuel the virus’s spread well into February and March.
England, meanwhile, is seeing a similar trend. Data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) shows that flu hospital admissions fell to 7.8 per 100,000 people in the week ending December 21, down from 10.0 per 100,000 the previous week. The highest rates remain among those aged 85 and over—47.0 per 100,000, a decrease from 64.5. Admissions have declined across all age groups, a sign that the current wave may have peaked, at least for now.
Dr Jamie Lopez-Bernal, a consultant epidemiologist at UKHSA, described the figures as “encouraging” but was quick to add, “Everyone, especially those most vulnerable to these winter bugs, needs to take care to protect themselves or help not to spread these viruses to others. This is particularly important over Christmas as families come together to celebrate. Flu is always unpredictable, is still circulating and could bounce back even further in the new year as we have seen in past years.”
Lopez-Bernal also stressed the importance of vaccination, saying, “For anyone eligible who is still not vaccinated, it’s not too late to get protected for the rest of the winter, but time is running out. Nobody wants to start the new year with flu so if appointments are still available near you, please make an appointment as soon as you can as vaccination can make all the difference in preventing severe illness and hospitalisation.”
The decline in flu admissions in England coincided with ongoing industrial action by junior doctors, putting additional pressure on NHS hospitals. Professor Meghana Pandit, NHS England’s national medical director, said, “The combination of strikes and winter viruses meant many hospitals will be on high alert in the days ahead.”
Looking back, flu admissions in England last winter peaked at 16.2 per 100,000 people in the week before Christmas—much higher than this year’s figures. In 2022/23, admissions rose even further to 18.1 per 100,000, marking the UK’s worst flu outbreak in a decade. This year, the percentage of flu tests coming back positive has also dropped, from 21.1% the previous week to 17.2% in the most recent data. It’s a sign that the virus’s grip may be loosening, but officials caution that flu is notoriously fickle and can surge back unexpectedly.
The UKHSA recommends that anyone experiencing cold or flu-like symptoms should limit contact with others, consider wearing a face covering in indoor public spaces, wash hands frequently, and ensure good ventilation indoors. These measures, officials say, are simple but effective ways to reduce the risk of spreading the virus, especially as people gather indoors during colder months.
Scotland’s flu season began earlier than usual this year, with a sharp rise in cases noted in mid-November. Experts had warned from the outset that a new variant of flu was spreading more easily across the UK, predicting a drawn-out and challenging season. So far, the data suggest those warnings were well-founded, but the public’s response—especially in terms of vaccination uptake—has helped blunt the worst impacts.
With over 1.8 million flu vaccinations already administered in Scotland and similar efforts underway in England, health officials are hopeful that the UK can avoid the severe spikes seen in previous years. Still, they’re not taking any chances. The message is clear: get vaccinated if you’re eligible, stay vigilant, and take steps to protect yourself and those around you. The flu may be down, but it’s certainly not out—and as the new year approaches, the nation’s health depends on everyone playing their part.
