Brazil’s political landscape was upended this week with the dramatic announcement that Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, eldest son of the jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro, will run for president in 2026 as the chosen standard-bearer of Brazil’s far-right Liberal Party. The announcement, made on December 5, 2025, has sent shockwaves through the country’s political establishment, rattled financial markets, and reignited debates about the future of the Bolsonaro movement and Brazil’s democracy.
Flávio Bolsonaro confirmed on social media that his father, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 presidential election to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has entrusted him with the mission of continuing their political project. "It is with great responsibility that I confirm the decision of Brazil’s greatest political and moral leader, Jair Messias Bolsonaro, to entrust me with the mission of continuing our national project," Flávio wrote, according to Associated Press and multiple Brazilian outlets. The post included a photo of Flávio kissing his father on the head during a recent prison visit, a gesture heavy with symbolism for the family’s loyal base.
Flávio’s office confirmed to the Associated Press that he will challenge President Lula, who is running for a fourth nonconsecutive term, as the official candidate of the Liberal Party. The party’s president, Valdemar Costa Neto, offered unequivocal support, stating, "Flavio told me our captain [Jair Bolsonaro] confirmed his pre-candidacy. If Bolsonaro said so, that's all there is to it!" This endorsement instantly positions Flávio as a leading contender on the right, but it also exposes deep divisions within the conservative movement about who is best placed to take on Lula in 2026.
Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement did not come without controversy or consequence. The former president, barred from holding office until 2030 due to a separate electoral conviction, was sentenced in September 2025 to 27 years and three months in prison for his role in an attempted coup. He has been held in a special room at the Federal Police Superintendence in Brasília since his arrest on November 22, 2025. Despite his incarceration, Bolsonaro remains a central figure in Brazilian politics, with his endorsement widely seen as essential for any right-wing candidate hoping to unite the movement’s fractious base.
The news of Flávio’s candidacy rattled Brazilian financial markets. As reported by Reuters and other outlets, the country’s currency fell as much as 3% against the US dollar, while the benchmark Bovespa stock index dropped around 4% on the day of the announcement. Investors had been betting on a more market-friendly, seasoned candidate such as São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, a former cabinet member under Jair Bolsonaro, to consolidate support on the right and build alliances with centrist parties. Economist Andre Perfeito of Garantia Capital warned that the decision “could implode ties between the right-wing movement he forged and more centrist political parties.”
Within the Bolsonaro family and their inner circle, the succession question has long loomed large. Flávio, 44, is widely regarded as the family’s most established politician in Brasília. Elected to the Senate in 2018, he previously served as a state legislator in Rio de Janeiro and even mounted an unsuccessful run for Rio mayor in 2016. His brother Carlos, a Rio city councilman for over two decades, has been instrumental in the family’s digital media strategy but has not sought higher office. The youngest brother, Eduardo, a federal lawmaker, recently made headlines for his controversial trip to Israel and his ongoing trial for allegedly seeking interference from Washington in his father’s Supreme Court case after relocating to the United States.
Flávio’s political career has not been without scandal. He was accused by prosecutors of embezzling public funds related to his family’s political offices, a charge he has consistently denied. The courts ultimately dismissed the case, but the episode remains a talking point for critics. Flávio is also known for his hardline law-and-order positions, having once called for US airstrikes on boats in Rio de Janeiro to combat drug trafficking, a stance that has raised eyebrows even among some allies.
Observers say that any opposition candidate hoping to defeat Lula must first secure the crucial electoral base and explicit support of Jair Bolsonaro. While many politicians saw São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas as the natural successor, he faced resistance from Bolsonaro’s inner circle, which ultimately coalesced around Flávio. The choice is seen as a clear signal that the family intends to keep tight control over the movement’s future direction. According to CNN Brasil, the endorsement was delivered during a visit to the federal police offices in Brasília where Jair Bolsonaro is serving his sentence.
The announcement has also spotlighted the roles of other family members. Michelle Bolsonaro, the ex-president’s third wife, has so far tamped down speculation about her own political ambitions, despite periodic rumors that she might seek office. Meanwhile, Eduardo Bolsonaro made headlines this week with a visit to Israel’s Western Wall, where he left a note asking for his father’s release and met with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, who called him a “tireless defender of freedom.” Eduardo’s actions reflect the family’s ongoing efforts to rally international support and maintain visibility on the world stage, even as their patriarch remains behind bars.
Brazil’s political right now faces a crucial test of unity. Some analysts warn that Flávio’s candidacy could splinter the coalition that swept his father to power in 2018, especially if centrist and market-friendly elements feel sidelined. Others argue that only a Bolsonaro can fully energize the movement’s base and mount a credible challenge to Lula’s enduring popularity. As for the left, Lula’s supporters see the developments as a sign of continued polarization but also as an opportunity to highlight the legal and ethical controversies surrounding the Bolsonaro family.
With the 2026 election still months away, the field remains in flux, but one thing is clear: Jair Bolsonaro’s influence, even from a prison cell, continues to shape the destiny of Brazil’s right. Whether Flávio Bolsonaro can translate his father’s blessing into a broad coalition capable of toppling Lula remains the defining question of Brazil’s next political chapter.
