Brazil’s political landscape has been upended yet again as Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of the country’s former president Jair Bolsonaro, declared his candidacy for the 2026 presidential election. The announcement comes amid deep divisions in the conservative camp, ongoing legal turmoil for the elder Bolsonaro, and renewed scrutiny of the military’s role in the failed coup attempt that shook the nation’s democracy just two years ago.
On December 5, 2025, Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator representing Rio de Janeiro, made headlines by confirming his intention to run for president, stating the decision was made after a visit to his father’s prison cell in Brasília three days earlier. The elder Bolsonaro, currently serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup d’état against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, reportedly gave his blessing from behind bars. "It is with a great sense of responsibility that I confirm the decision of the greatest political and moral leader in Brazil (…) who has entrusted me with the mission of pursuing our national project," Flavio announced on social media, as reported by Reuters and other outlets.
The move stunned Brazil’s political establishment and sent ripples through financial markets. Investors, who had expected a more moderate, market-friendly right-wing candidate such as São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas to emerge, reacted with caution. According to Reuters, Brazil’s benchmark Bovespa stock index and the real both slipped following Flavio’s confirmation of his candidacy, reflecting concerns about further political polarization and the prospect of another Lula term.
Flavio’s resolve appeared unwavering. After his father’s endorsement, he told reporters, "I told him this candidacy is irreversible," adding that his father responded, "we will not turn back." Despite briefly suggesting over the weekend that he might step aside—"I could abandon my candidacy at a price," he said, before clarifying, "My price is Bolsonaro free and on the ballot. In other words, there is no price"—Flavio reaffirmed his commitment. The only scenario in which he’d withdraw, he explained, would be if his father were released and able to run himself, a prospect widely viewed as unlikely due to Jair Bolsonaro’s Supreme Court conviction and ban from public office until 2030.
The Workers Party, led by President Lula, was quick to dismiss Flavio’s presidential bid. Party chief Edinho Silva told reporters, "No one launches a candidacy one day and the next day says, 'Look, I can negotiate.' It’s not just me – no one would take it seriously." Yet the announcement has already set the stage for a fierce right-versus-left showdown in 2026, even as the conservative movement grapples with internal fractures and legal uncertainty surrounding its most prominent figures.
Meanwhile, the shadow of the failed coup attempt continues to loom large over Brazilian politics and the military. According to investigative reporting by BdF, as of December 9, 2025, 13 military officers convicted for their roles in the coup plot are still receiving full salaries, pensions, or retirement benefits from the federal government. The annual cost to taxpayers? At least R$4.58 million (about US$900,000). Monthly payments range from R$12,307 (roughly US$2,266) for Jair Bolsonaro, a retired Army captain, to R$36,502 (about US$6,719) for retired Army General Augusto Heleno. This group includes eight elite "kids pretos"—active-duty and reserve Army personnel accused of plotting assassinations of President Lula, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes—as well as five senior "Hard Core" officers, among them Bolsonaro himself and retired Navy Admiral Almir Garnier.
The continued payments, experts say, are possible due to a legal provision known as "morte ficta" or "legal death." This loophole allows families of disgraced officers to keep receiving salaries even after rank removal, a privilege historian Francisco Carlos Teixeira da Silva and attorney Jorge Folena argue is a relic of Brazil’s military dictatorship (1964–1985). "This clashes directly with the republican principle that all citizens must be equal under the law and that public service must operate with full transparency," Folena told BdF. He called the mechanism "absurd, a privilege granted to the military that they should not have."
The process for stripping officers of their ranks is slow and convoluted. Cases must first be reviewed by the Office of the Prosecutor General for Military Justice, then submitted to the Superior Military Court (STM). Only after a ruling by the STM can ranks and salaries be revoked. Folena expressed frustration at the delay: "They should have already submitted these cases, they’ve had more than enough time. From what I hear, they will likely wait until February next year."
Resistance to accountability remains strong among the military’s upper echelons. On November 26, 2025, the presidents of Brazil’s three main military clubs issued a joint statement expressing "grave concern" over the imprisonment of officers involved in the coup. The letter, titled "Unjust Imprisonments," condemned the judicial process as flawed and the sentences as "disproportionate and unbalanced, punishments that should not even exist." They defended the convicted officers as "respected military leaders with unblemished careers spanning more than 40 years in service to the nation," and insisted that dissent from the Supreme Court’s decisions was "not only legitimate but necessary" to preserve the credibility of the judiciary.
These tensions are not new. In the past eight years, the STM has ruled on 96 disciplinary cases, stripping 86% of convicted officers of their ranks. In 2025 alone, 17 such cases have been finalized. Still, critics argue that deeper reforms are needed. Folena and others have called for changes to Article 142 of Brazil’s Constitution, which defines the Armed Forces’ domestic role and has been used by Bolsonaristas to justify military intervention in politics. "GLO is a republican error, a monarchical mechanism," Folena said, referencing the "Guaranteeing Law and Order" framework. "It should not exist in a democratic system."
President Lula, for his part, has taken a hard line against both the military’s privileges and his predecessor’s conduct. At the 14th Social Assistance Conference on December 8, Lula sharply criticized Bolsonaro for attempting to remove his court-ordered ankle monitor in November—a move that resulted in a Supreme Court order for preventive detention. Lula also condemned rising femicides and domestic violence, vowing to make gender-based violence a national priority. "Many women fear reporting abuse," he said, committing his administration to action on the issue.
As Brazil heads toward another contentious election, the nation finds itself at a crossroads. The far right, led by Flavio Bolsonaro, is rallying around a new standard-bearer, even as the legal and institutional fallout from the failed coup continues to reverberate. The military’s privileges, the judiciary’s independence, and the future of Brazilian democracy are all on the line. For now, one thing is clear: the battle for Brazil’s soul is far from over.
