Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) officially kicked off its hotly anticipated leadership election campaign on Monday, September 22, 2025, thrusting five well-known lawmakers into the national spotlight. The contest, which will culminate in a decisive vote on October 4, is shaping up as one of the most consequential—and contentious—in recent Japanese political memory. With the party still reeling from recent electoral setbacks and funding scandals, the outcome will not only determine the next LDP president but is also expected to decide who becomes the country’s next prime minister.
The five contenders—Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, former Economic Security Ministers Takayuki Kobayashi and Sanae Takaichi, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, and former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi—are all familiar faces. Each ran in last year’s leadership race, which saw a record nine candidates vying for the top spot. According to Jiji Press and NHK, the campaign officially began with the candidates submitting their lists of 20 recommending lawmakers at LDP headquarters in Tokyo, followed by speeches that marked the start of full-scale debate.
It’s not just lawmakers who will have their say. More than 910,000 party members are eligible to participate, with a total of 590 ballots up for grabs—split evenly between LDP Diet members and the party’s rank-and-file. If no candidate secures a majority in the first round, the top two will face off in a run-off, as outlined by Jiji Press. The winner’s term will last until September 2027, but the immediate task at hand will be far more daunting: uniting a deeply divided party and guiding Japan through a period of economic and political turbulence.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation earlier this month, following a bruising defeat in the July 20 House of Councillors election, triggered the early contest. Ishiba, who had been widely supported by the public, stepped down under pressure from party members eager to assign blame for the LDP’s electoral losses. As Yangchoon Kwak, a senior professor at Rikkyo University, told China Daily, “Party members placed the blame on him following a series of election defeats.” Despite the LDP’s status as the largest party, the ruling bloc now finds itself in the minority in both chambers of parliament—an uncomfortable position that will require deft negotiation and, perhaps, new coalitions to maintain power.
Factional politics, not policy, are expected to dominate the race, experts warn. Kwak explained that while the LDP has nominally dismantled its internal factions, “factional logic still dominates, with lawmakers prioritizing only candidates deemed capable of winning.” This, he said, makes the contest “a leadership race without the people,” driven more by self-preservation than principle. Hidetoshi Tashiro, chief economist at Infinity LLC, echoed these concerns, noting that the LDP must carefully manage pressure from populist opposition parties—especially after the far-right Sanseito party surged from two to 14 seats in the July vote, largely on a platform of tax-cutting populism and savvy social media outreach.
Still, the issues on the table are anything but academic. The candidates have been pressed to clarify their positions on economic measures to combat inflation, cooperation with opposition parties, and strategies for rebuilding the party’s battered image. According to The Mainichi, the Nikkei 225 index closed at a historic high on the day the campaign began, buoyed by investor optimism that the next LDP leader will pursue fiscal expansion. Electric appliance makers, oil and coal product firms, and precision instrument stocks all contributed to the gains—clear evidence that markets are watching the leadership race closely.
Economic policy has emerged as a key dividing line, especially over the question of deficit-financing bonds. Former Internal Affairs Minister Sanae Takaichi, aiming to become Japan’s first female prime minister, has signaled a willingness to boost issuance of such bonds if necessary to fund economic growth measures. “If it cannot be helped, I think we will have to issue government bonds,” she said at a joint press conference, as reported by Kyodo News. Takaichi has promised “responsible, aggressive and wise spending,” positioning herself as a fiscal dove in contrast to outgoing Prime Minister Ishiba. The other candidates, however, have expressed far more caution. Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi argued that bond issuance should be restrained “in principle,” while Koizumi pledged to steadily lower the public debt ratio. Kobayashi and Motegi both warned against issuing bonds lightly, underscoring the party’s internal divisions over fiscal policy.
Beyond economics, the candidates have offered contrasting visions for the party’s future. Kobayashi called for generational change, declaring, “A new generation will come forward and drive the LDP and Japan.” Motegi, meanwhile, set an ambitious goal: “We will surely revive the LDP and the Japanese economy. Our goal is (to achieve this in) two years, and we will hand over the baton to the next generation.” Hayashi emphasized boosting real wages to “restore a thick layer of the middle class in Japan,” while Takaichi pledged to ensure a “strong economy and country as well as a safe society for future generations.” Koizumi promised to “call on opposition parties to hold broad policy talks and try to reach an agreement,” aiming to deepen discussions on the framework of the administration while carefully assessing common ground in policies and ideologies.
Despite these policy pronouncements, many observers remain skeptical that the contest will hinge on ideas rather than alliances. The LDP’s minority status in parliament means that whoever wins will face the immediate challenge of forging cooperation with opposition parties—or even bringing a third coalition partner on board—to secure a working majority. As The Japan Times noted, the fall session of parliament is set to begin soon after the LDP race, leaving little time for the new leader to consolidate power or heal internal rifts.
Recent polls from several Japanese media outlets indicate that Koizumi and Takaichi are leading the race, though the outcome remains uncertain. The opposition, for its part, sees the contest as an opportunity to assert its relevance and promote alternative policies. Yoshihiko Noda, president of the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, remarked on Saturday that the policy proposals and statements of LDP leadership candidates “reflect the perspectives championed by opposition parties.”
As the campaign heats up, candidates will participate in debates and rallies in Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka, hoping to sway both lawmakers and party members. Ballots from party members will be finalized the day before the October 4 vote by lawmakers, after which both sets of votes will be counted together to determine the new party leader. Once chosen, the new LDP president will face a prime ministerial designation vote in parliament. Despite the ruling bloc’s minority status, analysts say the LDP’s size makes it highly likely that its new leader will become Japan’s next prime minister.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. The winner will inherit a party in crisis, a fractious parliament, and a public eager for solutions to rising prices and political dysfunction. Whether the next LDP leader can rise to the occasion—or simply paper over the cracks—remains to be seen.