In the heart of London’s government district, a gathering of defense insiders, intelligence officers, and military leaders at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) recently delivered a sobering verdict: Europe and its NATO allies are not ready for the war that many believe could erupt with Russia within the next few years. As reported across multiple outlets including CNN and RBC Ukraine, the consensus among experts is clear—Russia is actively preparing for a potential full-scale conflict with NATO, and the West’s response has been alarmingly sluggish.
At the RUSI conference, intelligence data and military assessments painted a stark picture. Russia’s timeline for potential aggression is no longer decades away; it’s a matter of years. According to intelligence gathered by both the Baltic states and Harvard’s Kennedy School, the earliest estimates suggest that Russian forces could be ready to launch a full-scale attack by 2027 or 2028. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte echoed this urgency, stating, “Russia may use military force against the Alliance within the next five years.” German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul underscored the point, saying German intelligence believes Moscow is “at least keeping open the option of war against NATO by 2029 at the latest.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin, for his part, has been blunt. In early December, he declared, “If Europe suddenly wants to go to war with us and starts, we are ready right now.” This kind of rhetoric, combined with mounting evidence of hybrid warfare, has set nerves jangling in capitals across Europe. Hybrid attacks—ranging from sabotage and GPS jamming in the Baltics to drone incursions into NATO airspace—are already a reality. Professor Sam Greene of King’s College London warned, “We see drones outside airports, and I think that there is a growing sense that it is probably only a matter of time before one of these drones brings down an airliner.”
The threat isn’t just theoretical. In the Polish town of Wyriki-Wola, Russian UAVs violated airspace and destroyed a local resident’s house, a chilling example of the risks at play. Meanwhile, European governments are coming under fire for what many see as a dangerous disconnect between their defense plans and actual preparedness. Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at RUSI, was scathing: “There’s a plan, with numbers. But the governments are not taking the necessary steps to implement it. We are still planning based on things that don’t exist.”
The United Kingdom, for example, would need roughly ten years to prepare for a major war, but experts warn that the actual window could be as short as three to five years. General Richard Barrons, former head of the UK’s Joint Forces Command, put it bluntly at the RUSI event: “We frankly don’t need much more analysis to tell us what it is we need to do. The problem is that we need to actually do it.” He called for the UK to rethink its infrastructure resilience, expand its armed forces and reserves, and invest in civil defense and industry to enable a rapid shift to a war footing.
Across Europe, the so-called “peace dividend”—the decades of reduced military spending and increased welfare following World War II—has come to an abrupt end. For years, European countries relied on the United States, the world’s biggest military spender, to provide the ultimate backstop. But with the Trump administration’s warning that NATO allies could no longer take US support for granted, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upending the status quo, most NATO members have begun to increase defense spending. According to NATO data, 31 of 32 members are on track to meet the 2% of GDP defense spending target this year, up from just six in 2021. Ambitiously, NATO has set a new goal of 5% of GDP by 2035, but many analysts doubt the feasibility given Europe’s financial pressures.
Public opinion, however, is shifting. Recent Eurobarometer surveys show that 78% of Europeans are concerned about the EU’s defense and security in the next five years, and a third believe defense should be a top spending priority. Yet, as General Fabien Mandon, France’s armed forces chief, discovered, the public is not always ready for the hard truths. He sparked outcry by warning that France must “accept losing its children” to “protect who we are.”
The Baltic states, Poland, and Nordic countries are taking these warnings seriously. Sweden and Finland have distributed civil defense and survival guidelines to their citizens, and several countries have reintroduced conscription or voluntary military training. Robin Potter of Chatham House noted, “If you’re in the east, if you perhaps border Russia, if you’re in Poland or in the Baltic states, the threat is very real for people there, and they are taking a lot more steps in terms of public shelters because they think the risk of an air attack is higher.”
Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has assessed that Moscow is in “Phase Zero” of preparing for a possible conflict with NATO, ramping up weapons production, mobilizing manpower, and shifting the Russian economy onto a war footing. Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans warned in September that these moves concern the entire Western world, and that the time for complacency is over.
Amid these tensions, some European leaders are advocating for a diplomatic track alongside military preparedness. Armin Laschet, head of the German parliament’s foreign policy committee, called for a joint Franco-German initiative to coordinate European plans for a ceasefire in Ukraine. “Europe must develop its own strong foreign and security policy,” Laschet said, emphasizing autonomy and sovereignty rather than relying on American intermediaries. He argued that a European peace plan, agreed with Ukraine, should be presented to Russia from a position of strength. Laschet’s call for Berlin and Paris to jointly launch any initiative with Moscow reflects a broader recognition that Europe’s security must be shaped by its own leaders.
Yet, the challenge remains daunting. As Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth put it, the current international situation is reminiscent of 1939, on the eve of World War II. He urged the United States to urgently shift defense procurement to a “military rails” approach and warned that adversaries are enhancing their capabilities while the US response lags. The psychological readiness of European societies is as critical as military hardware, with experts insisting that governments must have frank conversations with their citizens about the realities of modern threats.
The message from London, Paris, Berlin, and beyond is increasingly unified: the era when Europe could ignore the specter of war is over. Whether through ramped-up defense spending, civil preparedness, or renewed diplomatic efforts, the continent is being forced to confront a new—and potentially perilous—security reality.
With the clock ticking and the stakes higher than they’ve been in generations, the coming years will test not just Europe’s resolve, but its capacity to adapt, unite, and defend itself against an adversary that is already preparing for the worst.
