Europe’s fragile security order is facing its most acute test in decades, as leaders across the continent warn of Russia’s willingness to risk open confrontation with the West. On October 13, 2025, a chorus of senior intelligence and diplomatic officials sounded the alarm: Moscow’s recent actions—drone incursions, airspace violations, and hybrid attacks—are not just provocations, but signs of a calculated campaign to destabilize Europe and probe its defenses.
Martin Jaeger, Germany’s recently appointed foreign intelligence chief, put it bluntly before lawmakers in Berlin. “We can’t simply wait and assume that a potential Russian attack won’t come before 2029,” Jaeger told the Bundestag, according to The Kyiv Independent. “We’re already under fire today.” Jaeger, who previously served as German ambassador to Kyiv, described the current state as an “icy peace” that could erupt “at any moment into heated confrontation.”
His warning was echoed by others in the intelligence community. Sinan Selen, president of Germany’s domestic intelligence service (BfV), called Russian actions “increasingly escalatory” and outlined the breadth of the threat: “Russian services continuously adjust the levels of escalation of their activities with the strategic aim of weakening liberal democracies. As a result, we detect a wide range of espionage, disinformation, interference, sabotage, and cyberattacks conducted by foreign actors and states in Germany.”
Jaeger argued that Germany is Russia’s “number one target in Europe,” citing its size and its leading role in supporting Ukraine. He described a litany of hybrid tactics attributed to Moscow: manipulation of elections and public opinion, propaganda, provocations, disinformation, espionage, sabotage, airspace violations by drones and fighter jets, contract killings, and persecution of opposition figures living abroad. “Russia is concealing its true intentions, but in fact it’s probing our borders,” Jaeger cautioned. “At best, Europe is in a state of cold peace—one that could flare into a hot confrontation at any moment.”
These warnings come as concrete incidents pile up across NATO’s eastern flank. In recent weeks, Russian drones and aircraft have repeatedly violated allied airspace, prompting disruptions in Germany, Denmark, and Norway. According to Euractiv, the incursion of Russian drones into Poland’s territory in early September marked the first such incident since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Polish and allied forces responded by shooting down several drones, while other NATO members have openly discussed the possibility of downing Russian aircraft if violations continue.
Estonia’s airspace was also breached by Russian fighter jets, and in Germany, authorities suspect Russia was behind drone incursions that even forced a temporary halt to flights at Munich airport. The suspected hybrid campaign extends to GPS jamming, sabotage, and disinformation efforts, all aimed at testing the West’s resolve and capabilities.
Against this backdrop, NATO has moved quickly to shore up its defenses. As reported by France 24, the alliance has boosted its military presence and air defense systems along its eastern borders. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that Russia could be ready for a direct military clash with NATO in as little as five years—a timeline that many now consider to be optimistic.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, speaking during a visit to Kyiv, delivered a stark assessment of the situation. “Every time a Russian drone or plane violates our airspace, there is a risk of escalation, unintended or not. Russia is gambling with war,” Kallas said, as quoted by France 24 and The Kyiv Independent. She urged Europe to translate its vast economic power into military deterrence, warning that Moscow’s repeated provocations threaten to spiral into a wider conflict.
Kallas’s visit to Kyiv was also a show of solidarity with Ukraine, which is facing its own renewed onslaught. Russian attacks on energy infrastructure have forced Ukraine to impose rolling blackouts across seven central and eastern regions, a move Kyiv has called “cynical” given the approach of winter. “The enemy wants to affect the spirit and mood of our population,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga said during a joint press conference with Kallas. “This is especially cynical on the eve of winter.”
Ukraine has responded with a campaign of its own, launching more than 30 strikes on Russian energy sites since August, including a dramatic overnight attack on an oil depot in Russian-occupied Crimea that sparked a large fire. These strikes are intended to hamper Russia’s ability to fund its war machine and have contributed to a spike in petrol prices within Russia.
The violence is not limited to infrastructure. In Ukraine’s southern Zaporizhzhia region, a Russian drone attack killed a married couple as they traveled by car, local authorities reported. The human cost of the conflict—and its potential for escalation—remains ever-present.
On the diplomatic front, Kallas indicated that Brussels supports the delivery of US long-range Tomahawk missile systems to Ukraine, a move that could further shift the military balance. “We welcome all tools that make Ukraine stronger and Russia weaker,” Kallas said. The United States, under President Donald Trump, has signaled that it may warn Moscow of the possibility that Ukraine could receive such weapons if Russia does not end its invasion. Moscow, for its part, has warned that supplying Ukraine with Tomahawks would represent a major escalation.
Western leaders are now grappling with the question: is escalation inevitable? The answer, it seems, depends on whether Europe can muster the unity and resolve to deter further Russian aggression. Jaeger, the German intelligence chief, argued that “restraint” in the face of Russian provocations will be seen as weakness. “We must confront our adversaries wherever necessary,” he insisted.
Yet, the challenge is formidable. As Jaeger acknowledged, Russian intelligence operations are highly sophisticated and difficult to trace. The hybrid nature of the threat—spanning cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, sabotage, and overt military provocations—makes it hard for Western democracies to calibrate their response without risking unintended escalation.
Despite these difficulties, NATO and the EU appear determined to send a clear message: Europe will not be intimidated. The alliance’s recent moves to strengthen its eastern defenses, combined with calls for greater military investment and deterrence, signal a new phase in the standoff with Moscow.
Whether this will be enough to prevent a wider conflict remains uncertain. But as winter approaches and the shadow of war looms over the continent, European leaders are under no illusions about the stakes. The coming months will test not only the strength of Europe’s defenses but also the unity of its resolve in the face of a resurgent and unpredictable Russia.