As Europe’s skies prepare for the bustling summer travel season, a looming crisis threatens to ground thousands of flights and disrupt travel plans across the continent. The cause? A rapidly escalating jet fuel shortage, triggered by the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran and the subsequent Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—a vital artery for global oil shipments.
Since the US declared war on Iran at the end of February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz, located off Iran’s north coast, has been effectively closed to commercial shipping. According to Aerospace Global News, this narrow waterway usually sees about 20% of the world’s oil—much of it destined for refineries in Europe—pass through daily. The blockade has sent shockwaves through global markets, but the threat is especially acute for Europe, which relies on imports for roughly 30% of its jet fuel needs, mostly sourced from Gulf states like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
With alternative supply lines struggling to compensate for the loss, officials and industry leaders are sounding the alarm. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), told reporters last week, “Europe has maybe six weeks of jet fuel left,” warning that if the blockade continues, the tipping point for widespread fuel shortages could come as early as mid to late June. He noted that while some supplies could be sourced from Nigeria or the US, these would not be enough to fill the gap left by Gulf state imports.
Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), echoed these concerns, describing the IEA’s assessment as “sobering.” Walsh stated, “We have also estimated that by the end of May we could start to see some cancellations in Europe for lack of jet fuel. This is already happening in parts of Asia. Along with doing everything possible to secure alternative supply lines, it’s important that authorities have well-communicated and well-coordinated plans in place in case rationing becomes necessary, including for slot relief.” (Air Cargo News)
The sense of urgency is palpable among European policymakers. On April 20, the European Commission unveiled plans for a jet fuel sharing mechanism, aiming to ensure that limited stocks are allocated efficiently among the EU’s 27 member states. Dan Jørgensen, the EU’s energy commissioner, emphasized the seriousness of the situation, telling the Financial Times, “We need to be quite honest and say that the situation will become quite serious, and this is why we will be introducing these measures.” He added, “We aim to make sure that we don’t have regions, airports, or even member states that are hit disproportionately harder by this.”
While the details of the mechanism are still being finalized, the European Commission is also preparing an emergency proposal to be presented on April 22. According to Reuters, the plan includes mapping refinery capacity across Europe, increasing jet fuel production wherever possible, maximizing refinery efficiency, coordinating fuel stock monitoring, joint purchasing of kerosene, and the release of emergency reserves if needed. The aim is to gradually decrease the bloc’s reliance on imported energy sources in both the short and long term.
The aviation industry is not waiting for official measures before taking action. Airlines across Europe are already scaling back operations in anticipation of worsening fuel shortages and skyrocketing prices. The Air France-KLM Group has announced cuts to certain routes, while Aer Lingus revealed it would be cancelling around 500 flights over the summer period. On April 19, German carrier Lufthansa announced the immediate cessation of its CityLine regional subsidiary, removing 27 aircraft from service as part of broader cost-cutting measures. Lufthansa cited surging fuel prices—more than double pre-war levels—as a key factor, and has temporarily grounded its A321 freighters operated by CityLine.
Other carriers are bracing for uncertainty. Javier Gándara, easyJet’s CEO for Spain and Portugal, assessed the current situation, telling Wales Online, “What the producers and airports are telling us is that there will not be any supply problems for the next three or four weeks. Beyond that, it is difficult to see.” He noted that Spain is somewhat insulated, as only 11% of its crude oil imports come from the Middle East, but warned, “No one will be immune to potential supply problems. Ships that leave and pass through the Strait of Hormuz and come to Europe take an average of 45 days, and they have already been practically out of service for two months. It will take time to recover all of that. It is difficult to know what will happen, so we will react as we go.”
Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary, speaking to Sky News, warned that “disruption could begin in May,” adding, “Fuel suppliers are constantly looking at the market. We do not expect any disruption until early May, but if the war continues, we do run the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June, and we hope the war will finish sooner than that, and the risk to supply will be eliminated.”
Industry groups are urging swift and coordinated action from European authorities. Airlines for Europe (A4E), representing 16 airline members and 80% of European air traffic, has called on the EU to implement temporary measures such as monitoring jet fuel availability and providing legal clarity on existing legislation. Airports Council International (ACI) Europe, meanwhile, has warned that airports could start running out of jet fuel within three weeks unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and has advocated for an EU monitoring platform, imports from alternative locations, and joint procurement across member states.
Despite the mounting pressure, some airlines are still trying to reassure passengers. Dutch carrier KLM has adjusted flight schedules in response to rising fuel prices, stating that some flights were “no longer financially viable to operate,” but emphasized, “there is no kerosene shortage” at present.
The crisis has exposed the fragility of Europe’s energy and aviation supply chains, as well as the continent’s reliance on Middle Eastern oil. While the EU’s planned measures could help mitigate the immediate impact, the situation remains fluid and highly dependent on developments in the Middle East. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the war continues, Europe’s summer skies could be noticeably quieter—a sobering prospect for travelers, airlines, and the broader economy alike.
As the days tick by and fuel stocks dwindle, all eyes are on Brussels, airline headquarters, and the Persian Gulf. The next few weeks will determine whether Europe’s travel industry can weather the storm—or if the continent must brace for a summer of grounded planes and frustrated passengers.