In the wake of Russia’s largest airstrike on Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, tensions between Moscow and the West have reached a fever pitch, with diplomatic efforts for peace appearing more remote than ever. Over the weekend prior to September 9, 2025, Russia unleashed a barrage of 810 drones on Ukrainian territory, striking the capital city of Kiev and causing significant damage to government buildings. The attack claimed the lives of three civilians, including a mother and her three-month-old baby, according to Ukrainian authorities. This escalation came just days after failed attempts to revive peace talks and mounting frustration among Western leaders over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s steadfast refusal to seek a negotiated settlement.
Speaking before the European Parliament on September 9, Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s top diplomat, delivered a stark assessment of the conflict’s trajectory. "Putin has zero interest in peace, and he will not stop the war until he’s forced to," Kallas declared, as reported by multiple European outlets. She reinforced the EU’s unwavering support for Ukraine, emphasizing, "Russia has not broken Ukraine’s resolve. It is not breaking ours either." Kallas insisted that the Kremlin’s military campaign is ultimately doomed: "The message to Russia remains clear: it will not be able to win the war."
Kallas’s remarks come as the European Union approaches a critical milestone in its military assistance to Ukraine. The bloc has now delivered 80% of its promised 2 million rounds of ammunition to Ukrainian forces, with the goal of reaching 100% by October. Since the onset of the invasion, the EU’s total support for Ukraine has soared above €169 billion, including €63 billion in military aid. These figures, highlighted by Kallas, underscore the scale of Western backing for Kyiv and the determination to resist Russian advances.
Yet, the prospects for peace remain bleak. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, in an interview with Rai News, cautioned that no meaningful progress toward ending the war should be expected before Christmas. "Nothing will happen by Christmas," Tajani said, reflecting a widespread sense of pessimism among European leaders. He pointed to new financial sanctions as the only effective tool currently available to pressure Russia, arguing, "The inevitable tool now is new sanctions targeting Russia's finances, that is, preventing Russia from having the financial means to fund its army."
Tajani also dismissed recent threats from the Kremlin, after Putin warned that European troops deployed in Ukraine would be considered "legitimate targets." Italy, Tajani confirmed, will not participate in sending soldiers to Ukraine. Instead, Rome has proposed a treaty akin to NATO’s Article 5, designed to guarantee Ukraine’s independence and security without provoking Moscow. "This is a rational proposal that Putin cannot regard as a provocation, but one that would guarantee Ukraine's independence and security," Tajani explained.
The diplomatic impasse has been compounded by failed attempts to bring the warring sides to the negotiating table. Direct talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul earlier this year yielded only limited agreements on prisoner exchanges, with no progress toward a broader ceasefire or peace settlement. Hopes for a face-to-face meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have been dashed by irreconcilable differences over the venue. Putin insists on holding talks in Moscow—a nonstarter for Kyiv—while Zelensky has suggested a neutral third country or even Kiev, which Moscow rejects outright. "I can't go to Moscow when my country is under missile attacks every day. I can't go to the capital of this terrorist," Zelensky told ABC News on September 5.
Against this backdrop, Western leaders are intensifying their efforts to coordinate new rounds of sanctions against Russia. On September 8, EU special envoy David O’Sullivan arrived in Washington with a team of experts to discuss the details of the EU’s forthcoming 19th sanctions package. The discussions with US officials are expected to target Russia’s energy sector, crypto exchanges, payment systems, and the so-called "shadow fleet" of ships that help Moscow circumvent existing sanctions. The EU is also considering removing additional Russian banks from the SWIFT financial transaction system and imposing secondary sanctions on companies outside Russia that facilitate the war effort.
US President Donald Trump, who has long promised to take a tougher line on Russia, signaled on September 7 that he is ready to impose new sanctions. "Yes, I am," Trump replied when asked about moving to "phase two" of sanctions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed this sentiment, telling NBC, "If the US and [the EU] get together, impose more sanctions, secondary tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil, the Russian economy will completely collapse and it will bring President Putin to the negotiating table." Still, Trump has stopped short of targeting China—the largest purchaser of Russian crude—with tariffs or sanctions, despite pressure from some allies.
French President Emmanuel Macron, meanwhile, has tried to rally European and international support for Ukraine’s security. At a meeting in Paris on September 4, Macron announced that 26 countries had pledged to send troops as security forces to Ukraine, either on land, sea, or air, once the fighting ends. "In the coming days we will finalize the American support for these security guarantees. The US, as I said, is involved in all stages of the process," Macron stated. However, the deployment of such forces remains contingent on a ceasefire—a prospect that appears increasingly distant.
Putin, for his part, has remained defiant. During a visit to China, he reiterated that any foreign troops in Ukraine would be "legitimate targets" while fighting continues, but also claimed that Russia would comply with any peace agreement if reached. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the impact of Western sanctions, stating on September 8, "No sanctions will be able to force the Russian Federation to change the consistent position that our president has repeatedly spoken about."
Despite the mounting economic and military pressure, Russia continues to pursue its objectives on the battlefield, focusing on the contested regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson. Ukrainian intelligence reports indicate that Moscow has amassed nearly 100,000 troops near the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk, with preparations underway for a potential autumn offensive. The war, now stretching into its fourth year, shows little sign of abating.
As the EU and US finalize their coordinated sanctions strategy, analysts say the effectiveness of these measures will depend on their scope and the degree of transatlantic unity. "America has the greatest sanctions power because of the key role of the dollar in the world economy. So whether America participates in the new sanctions or not, that makes a huge difference," said Nigel Gould-Davies of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The coming weeks will test whether tougher sanctions and continued military aid can shift the calculus in Moscow—or whether the conflict will grind on into another year, with peace as elusive as ever.