Estonia has found itself at the center of escalating tensions between NATO and Russia after a dramatic violation of its airspace by Russian fighter jets last week, an incident that has reverberated through the corridors of power from Tallinn to Washington and beyond. The episode, which occurred on the morning of Friday, September 19, 2025, saw three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets enter Estonian airspace without permission and remain for 12 tense minutes over the Gulf of Finland. According to the Estonian government, the Russian aircraft had no flight plans, their transponders were turned off, and they failed to communicate with Estonian air traffic control—actions that NATO officials have called 'reckless' and part of a worrying pattern of behavior from Moscow.
The response from Estonia and its allies was swift. Italian F-35s, part of NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission and stationed in Estonia, scrambled to escort the Russian jets out, while jets from Finland and Sweden also took to the skies under NATO's mission to bolster its eastern flank. This high-stakes intercept was just the latest in a series of airspace violations in the region. Estonia, which shares a border with Russia, said this was the fifth such violation by Russian aircraft in 2025 alone. The incident prompted Estonia to invoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty, which triggers urgent consultations among the alliance’s 32 member states whenever the territorial integrity, political independence, or security of any member is threatened.
Estonian President Alar Karis did not mince words, calling the incident a 'hostile act' and a clear sign that Russia is escalating its war on Ukraine. His remarks came just a day after U.S. President Donald Trump publicly stated that NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft that violate their airspace. "This is a warning to Putin not to test us anymore," said Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna in an interview with NPR’s Morning Edition. He added, "As President Trump said, and as well, Secretary General Rutte said that NATO is ready to act... This is the reason why we are actually a member of NATO. So if Russia is coming again as a threat, then NATO will act as it was meant to."
Russia, for its part, has flatly denied any wrongdoing. Its defense ministry claimed the jets were on a scheduled flight, strictly complying with international airspace regulations, and never violated the borders of other states. According to Moscow, the planes flew over neutral Baltic waters, no closer than three kilometers from Estonian territory. But the Estonian government maintains that its radar data and the lack of communication from the Russian pilots tell a different story.
The incident has added fuel to an already smoldering fire. In the weeks leading up to the Estonian violation, both Poland and Romania—also NATO members—reported incursions by Russian drones into their airspace. Poland’s military said it had shot down at least three Russian drones, while Romania’s defense ministry detected a Russian drone near its border with Ukraine. These repeated provocations have led to heightened alert across NATO’s eastern flank, with the alliance pledging to move more troops and fighter jets eastward. Aircraft from the UK, France, Germany, and Denmark are now taking part in air defense missions over Poland, underscoring the seriousness with which NATO is treating these threats.
The stakes could hardly be higher. Estonia’s Prime Minister Kristen Michal emphasized the need for unity and strength in the face of Russian provocations. "NATO's response to any provocation must be united and strong," Michal said, adding, "We consider it essential to consult with our allies to ensure shared situational awareness and to agree on our next joint steps." The invocation of Article 4—used by Poland only days earlier—reflects just how seriously Estonia and its allies view these incidents. The NATO spokesperson described the Russian incursion as "yet another example of reckless Russian behaviour and NATO's ability to respond."
Some European leaders are calling for even tougher action. Czech President Petr Pavel, a former chairman of NATO’s military committee, suggested the alliance should be prepared to shoot down violating Russian aircraft if necessary. "Unfortunately, this is a balancing act bordering on the edge of conflict, but one simply cannot retreat in the face of evil," Pavel said. Former UK Defence Secretary Sir Ben Wallace has also argued that Russia must be presented with a "strategic dilemma"—a response that would make clear such provocations come with a cost.
Yet, the path forward is fraught with risk. The memory of the 2015 incident in which Turkey, another NATO member, shot down a Russian jet after a brief airspace violation still looms large. That episode resulted in the death of a Russian pilot and significant diplomatic fallout, though it did not spark a wider war. Would shooting down Russian planes over Estonia or Poland have the same outcome—or would it risk a broader conflict? The answer is far from certain.
President Trump’s stance has added another layer of complexity. While he has publicly supported a robust NATO response, including shooting down intruding Russian aircraft, analysts caution that his approach to the alliance and to Russia has at times been unpredictable. As the BBC noted, "it is very possible he would view the shooting down of Russian planes, even in NATO airspace, as a significant and unnecessary escalation—and one he would oppose." Should a wider conflict erupt, Trump might view Europe as bearing significant responsibility, potentially calling into question the U.S. commitment to NATO’s Article 5, which treats an attack on one member as an attack on all. Such uncertainty is, as the BBC put it, "a nightmare scenario for Europe—and a dream one for the Kremlin."
Meanwhile, the broader context remains Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, now well into its third year. Despite repeated calls for a ceasefire and efforts by President Trump to broker peace—including an invitation to Russian President Vladimir Putin for a summit in Alaska—Moscow has intensified its air attacks and made only slow progress on the ground, with heavy losses reported. Estonian officials argue that the airspace violations are part of a deliberate Russian strategy to distract NATO and draw attention and resources away from supporting Ukraine. "The aim is to draw attention and assistance away from Ukraine by forcing NATO countries to focus more on the defence of their own territories," Prime Minister Michal told BBC reporters.
In response to these mounting threats, NATO has taken concrete steps to bolster its defenses. The alliance recently launched the Eastern Sentry mission to increase capabilities on its eastern flank and, at a summit in The Hague, decided to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP. "NATO is stronger now, NATO is politically stronger," Foreign Minister Tsahkna told NPR. "We saw that NATO is able to act from the first second on the eastern flank. In Poland the drones were shot down. So we can say that we are stronger."
As the situation continues to evolve, one thing is clear: Estonia’s airspace violation has become a flashpoint in a much larger contest between NATO and Russia. How the alliance responds in the coming weeks could shape the security of Europe for years to come.