England’s National Health Service (NHS) is bracing for an unprecedented winter crisis as resident doctors—formerly known as junior doctors—consider a new government offer to avert a planned five-day strike in the week leading up to Christmas. This critical moment comes amid a record-breaking surge in flu cases, with hospitals already stretched to their limits and health officials warning of a “tidal wave” of illness not seen in recent memory.
The latest government proposal, announced on December 11, 2025, is intended to address some of the longstanding grievances of resident doctors. The offer includes emergency legislation to prioritize UK medical graduates and experienced NHS doctors for specialty training roles, a significant increase in specialty training posts from 1,000 to 4,000 over the next three years, and funding for mandatory Royal College examination and membership fees. Notably, 1,000 of these new training posts are set to begin as early as 2026. According to Sky News, the British Medical Association (BMA) is currently surveying its members online to determine whether the new deal is sufficient to call off the strike, with the poll closing on Monday, December 15—just two days before the planned walkout.
Despite these concessions, the government’s proposal does not meet the doctors’ demand for a 26% salary increase over the coming years, which they say is needed to restore pay eroded in real terms since 2008. This is in addition to a 28.9% pay rise already implemented over the past three years. Health Secretary Wes Streeting has made it clear that further pay increases are off the table for now, citing both fiscal constraints and fairness to other NHS staff. “I have been consistent, honest, and up front with resident doctors that we cannot go further on pay this year. There is a gap between what the BMA is demanding and what the country can afford,” Streeting told reporters, as quoted by Pulse. He added, “Nor would further movement on pay be fair to other NHS staff, to whom I am also responsible, and many of whom will never in their careers earn as much as the lowest-paid doctor.”
Streeting has, however, expressed sympathy for concerns about job security and career progression, calling the government’s new measures on training “a constructive, sensible, and we hope, decisive solution.” He also offered to extend the union’s strike mandate, allowing resident doctors to stage industrial action later in January if they reject the current offer. The BMA, however, declined this extension, a decision Streeting described as “inexplicable.”
Dr. Jack Fletcher, chair of the BMA’s resident doctors committee, acknowledged the government’s movement on training issues as a direct result of strike action. “It should not have taken strike action, but make no mistake: it was strike action that got us this far,” Fletcher said, according to Sky News. “We have forced the government to recognise the scale of the problems and to respond with measures on training numbers and prioritisation. However, this offer does not increase the overall number of doctors working in England and does nothing to restore pay for doctors, which remains well within the government’s power to do.”
The stakes for the NHS—and for patients—could not be higher. The planned strike, scheduled from 7am on December 17 to 7am on December 22, coincides with what health officials are calling a worst-case scenario for the nation’s hospitals. According to The Independent, flu admissions have soared by 55% in just one week, with an average of 2,660 patients hospitalized daily—up from 1,717 the previous week. NHS England has warned that the number of hospitalised flu patients could exceed 5,000 by the weekend of December 13-14, with no peak in sight.
The predominant flu strain this season is influenza A(H3N2) subclade K, which now accounts for nearly 90% of flu samples in the UK. Experts say that population immunity is unusually low this year, as most people have not been exposed to this particular variant before. The flu season also started a month earlier than usual, and the illness is hitting harder and lasting longer than in previous years. “With record demand for A&E and ambulances and an impending resident doctors strike, this unprecedented wave of super flu is leaving the NHS facing a worst-case scenario for this time of year,” Professor Meghana Pandit, NHS national medical director, told The Independent.
The pressures are not limited to hospitals. Several schools across the country have closed or canceled festive events due to widespread illness. In Middlesbrough, South Bank Primary School called off Christmas celebrations, saying it “would not be safe” to proceed. Other schools in Cornwall, Caerphilly, and Cheshire have also shut their doors temporarily as flu and other infections spread rapidly among students and staff.
NHS leaders are urging the public to take extra precautions. Daniel Elkeles, chief executive of NHS Providers, described the flu strain as “very nasty” and advised anyone experiencing symptoms to wear masks in public spaces—a throwback to Covid-era infection control measures. “When you were talking about anything like Covid, I think we need to get back into the habit that if you are coughing and sneezing, but you’re not unwell enough to not go to work, then you must wear a mask when you’re in public spaces, including on public transport to stop the chances of you giving your virus to somebody else,” Elkeles told Times Radio.
Children’s doctors are also urging parents to ensure their children receive the nasal flu spray vaccine, which the UK Health Security Agency says is currently 70-75% effective at preventing hospital attendance in children aged two to 17. The vaccine is less effective in adults, with an estimated efficacy of 30-40%, but remains the best available protection against this season’s aggressive flu variant.
The political response has been sharply divided. The Prime Minister has strongly criticized the doctors’ union for pressing ahead with strike plans during such a critical period, calling the decision “astounding” and warning it would “inflict pain” on patients. Downing Street emphasized that the government had done “everything” possible to avert the strike, including offering to extend the mandate for industrial action. “Their NHS colleagues will have to cancel Christmas plans to cover shifts, patients will have operations cancelled, and the NHS will be preparing for the worst in the middle of an unprecedented flu season,” a No 10 spokesperson told The Independent.
Within the NHS, some leaders have welcomed the government’s new offer as a step in the right direction. Daniel Elkeles of NHS Providers said, “This offer shows the government has been listening to genuine training concerns raised by the BMA and has come up with a constructive, sensible, and we hope, decisive solution.” Rory Deighton, acute and community care director at the NHS Confederation, echoed these sentiments, urging resident doctors to “seriously consider this offer, which aims to address access to speciality training places and concerns over exam and membership fees.”
As the BMA’s consultation draws to a close, the fate of the planned strike—and the NHS’s ability to weather this historic winter crisis—hangs in the balance. With flu admissions soaring, hospitals under immense strain, and the specter of industrial action looming, the coming days will prove decisive for patients, doctors, and the health service as a whole.
