On March 30, 2026, the American political landscape found itself at a crossroads, with debates over the nation’s direction, its sense of exceptionalism, and the future of education policy all coming to the fore. As the dust settled from the 2024 election and the country looked ahead to new leadership and ideas, questions about progress, decline, and justice—so often invoked in the rhetoric of presidents and reformers alike—took on renewed urgency.
Former President Barack Obama was fond of quoting the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s famous line: “the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.” According to Minot Daily News, while King’s words were a rallying cry for moral reformers, Obama’s use of the phrase sometimes took on the air of a “victory spike”—a sign of triumph in the zero-sum game of American politics. Yet, as columnist Michael Barone noted, Obama’s skepticism about American exceptionalism stood in contrast to the optimism that often characterizes the U.S. narrative. Obama once remarked that he believed in American exceptionalism only as much as “Brits” believe in British exceptionalism or Greeks in Greek exceptionalism—a comparison that, as Barone pointed out, reflects a history of both pride and decline for those nations.
That sense of decline, so familiar in the stories of ancient civilizations, is not lost on historians. Barone recalled the collapse of civilizations around 1177 B.C., immortalized in the book 1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed, and the long, contested decline of the Roman Empire. While some historians still debate the extent of Rome’s fall, there’s little doubt that its military and technological prowess faded, leaving later generations to marvel at feats like the Pantheon’s dome—an achievement that would not be matched for centuries.
Yet, the American story, at least until now, has often been told as one of continual growth and progress. Economic expansion, once rare in Europe before 1800, became the rule in the United States. Cultural milestones—the abolition of slavery, the push for women’s equality, and the struggle for Black civil rights—have marked the nation’s journey, even as setbacks and challenges persisted. In such an environment, it’s tempting to believe that things, by and large, get better over time.
But as Barone observed, the lessons of history caution against complacency. In the past century of American politics, Democrats have frequently cast themselves as the party of progress, embracing New Deal ideals and the belief that a complex, industrialized society requires a robust government to protect its citizens. However, the last few decades have cast doubt on the effectiveness of big government to deliver on its promises. Barone pointed to California’s high-speed rail project, which has yet to lay a single mile of track in 19 years, even as the private sector has raced ahead with innovations like artificial intelligence.
The country’s political map reflects this shift. Americans, including recent immigrants, are leaving high-tax, big-government states like New York, Illinois, and California for states such as Florida, Tennessee, and Texas, where smaller government and market-friendly policies prevail. Under Presidents Ronald Reagan and the two Bushes, Republicans made the case that markets could achieve what government could not, offering a compelling alternative to the Democratic vision.
Yet, the Republican Party itself faces uncertainty. Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” mantra, according to Barone, evokes a longing for the 1950s—a time of low immigration, strong family formation, and high church attendance. But with Trump’s eventual retirement looming, Republicans are left divided, unsure what progress or decline should mean in the twenty-first century.
Amid these swirling debates, education has emerged as a defining battleground. As reported by POLITICO, former Education Secretary Arne Duncan, who served under Obama, has called on Democrats to “own” education again—but not by focusing on Washington. Instead, Duncan argues, the path forward lies in the states, where a so-called Southern surge has seen places like Louisiana and Mississippi post gains on national test scores. “What the Republicans have sold is fear. We have sold nothing, and fear is pretty powerful, and we got to sell excellence,” Duncan told POLITICO. “We got to be: We’re fighting for your child. We’re fighting to give every opportunity from when they’re babies to when they’re in college and beyond.”
Duncan’s new role as a senior fellow with Democrats for Education Reform reflects a broader push to develop a coherent education strategy ahead of crucial gubernatorial races this year and the 2028 presidential election. He’s blunt about the challenges: “We don’t have goals. We don’t have strategies to achieve them. We don’t have metrics to measure them, and we don’t have public transparency. We’re lost, and we’ve broken trust with parents, and so I feel, again, a moral and educational obligation to try and help more.”
The stakes are high. Duncan argues that Democrats’ lack of leadership on education contributed to their losses in the seven swing states that former Vice President Kamala Harris failed to carry in 2024. “Given the fact that those swing states, the votes were so close, had we been winning on education—half of them, three-quarters of them, all of them—the election would have, fundamentally, the outcome would have been different,” he lamented. “The fact that our lack of leadership on education helped us to lose and help to elect Trump is like, I can’t tell you how personally devastating that is.”
Democrats for Education Reform is now involved in seven open-seat gubernatorial races, is supporting three incumbents seeking reelection, and is tracking other contests where education could be a decisive issue. Jorge Elorza, the group’s CEO and former mayor of Providence, Rhode Island, sees opportunity in the current moment: “There’s a new generation of Democrats that are stepping up to run for governor. They want to lead on education, but they literally don’t know what to do. And I see that as an opportunity. There’s a void to be filled. There’s an openness to new ideas.”
Meanwhile, the policy landscape is shifting in unexpected ways. Democratic governors are under pressure to embrace a GOP-created federal scholarship tax credit, part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act set to take effect in 2027. The credit, offering up to $1,700 for donors to scholarship granting organizations, could funnel resources to tutoring, after-school programs, and disability services. Elorza called it “an incredible opportunity to direct those dollars to the kids in the communities that need it most.” Some Democratic governors, like Jared Polis of Colorado, have already declared participation, dubbing the program “free money.” Others in Hawaii, New Mexico, and Oregon are reportedly reconsidering their initial reluctance as they await regulatory details, according to Third Way’s Michelle Dimino.
At the same time, the federal government’s $2.2 billion Title II-A grant program continues to support teacher professional development, recruitment, and retention—critical needs as schools strive to recover from pandemic disruptions and teacher shortages. And on the higher education front, the end of the Biden-era SAVE student loan repayment plan has left more than 7 million borrowers in limbo. Starting July 1, 2026, these borrowers will be notified to select a new repayment plan within 90 days. As Undersecretary Nicholas Kent stated, “For years, borrowers have been caught in a confusing cycle of uncertainty, but the Trump Administration’s policy is simple: if you take out a loan, you must pay it back.” Advocates, however, are urging the Education Department to ensure “more time and flexibility” for borrowers during the transition, emphasizing the importance of clear and timely communication.
In the midst of all this, POLITICO itself is undergoing change, naming Jonathan Greenberger as its new Global Editor-in-Chief effective May 1, 2026. Greenberger, who previously served as Executive Vice President and as ABC’s youngest-ever Washington Bureau Chief, is credited with bringing “new and unconventional thinking” to the organization, according to CEO Goli Sheikholeslami. As the news environment evolves, so too does the way Americans debate—and perhaps define—the arc of justice, progress, and decline.
As the nation stands at this pivotal juncture, the choices made in education, governance, and leadership will shape not just the headlines, but the arc of the American story for years to come.