On Sunday, November 16, 2025, nearly 14 million Ecuadorians headed to the polls in a high-stakes referendum that could reshape the country’s constitution, its relationship with the United States, and its approach to rampant drug-fueled violence. The central question: should Ecuador lift its 17-year constitutional ban on foreign military bases, potentially paving the way for the return of U.S. forces to the Manta airbase on the Pacific coast? According to polling by Cedatos, over 61 percent of voters were expected to say “yes” to this controversial measure.
The referendum, however, was about much more than the return of foreign troops. Voters were also asked to weigh in on reducing the number of lawmakers, ending public funding for political parties, and convening a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution. As reported by Reuters and FRANCE 24, these proposals have ignited fierce debate in a country grappling with unprecedented levels of violence and political uncertainty.
Ecuador, once regarded as a relatively peaceful corner of Latin America, now faces a grim reality: its homicide rate is projected to reach 50 per 100,000 people this year, the highest in the region. In the first half of 2025 alone, the country recorded a staggering 4,619 murders, the most on record according to Ecuador’s Organized Crime Observatory. The violence, fueled by powerful drug cartels exploiting porous borders and weak institutions, has left citizens desperate for solutions.
President Daniel Noboa, a 37-year-old scion of a banana-exporting fortune, took office in November 2023 and has responded with a hardline approach. He’s deployed soldiers to the streets and prisons, launched dramatic raids on gang strongholds, declared frequent states of emergency, and tightened security at key infrastructure sites. Noboa has even drawn comparisons to El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, posting images of shaven-headed inmates in orange uniforms at a new mega-prison—a stark symbol of his zero-tolerance stance.
But as the polls opened on Sunday, Noboa made headlines with another dramatic announcement: the capture of Wilmer Geovanny Chavarria Barre, known as "Pipo," the elusive leader of the notorious Los Lobos gang. Chavarria, who had faked his death and fled to Europe, was arrested in the Spanish city of Malaga thanks to a joint operation between Ecuadorian and Spanish authorities. Interior Minister John Reimberg linked Chavarria to more than 400 killings, noting that he had run criminal networks from behind bars for eight years until 2019. Noboa revealed that the Los Lobos chief had overseen illicit mining schemes and maintained trafficking ties with Mexico’s Jalisco New Generation Cartel, all while living under a false identity in Europe.
The timing of Chavarria’s capture was no accident. It underscored the government’s narrative that Ecuador needs international cooperation—and perhaps foreign military presence—to tackle the sophisticated criminal networks now embedded in the country. In September, the United States officially designated Los Lobos and another powerful Ecuadorian gang, Los Choneros, as “terrorist” organizations, further cementing the transnational dimension of Ecuador’s security crisis.
Supporters of the referendum, including President Noboa, argue that allowing U.S. forces to return to Manta is a necessary step in the fight against drug cartels. The U.S. previously operated from the Manta airbase between 1999 and 2009 as part of anti-narcotics efforts, but left after a 2008 referendum under leftist President Rafael Correa resulted in a constitutional ban on foreign troops. Noboa, who has openly sought U.S. assistance, insists that Ecuador cannot face the current wave of violence alone.
“May this day reaffirm that democracy is exercised, honored, and defended by voting,” declared Diana Atamaint, president of the National Electoral Council, as she opened the polls. Voting closed at 5 p.m. local time, with the nation and the region watching closely for the outcome.
Yet the push for foreign military involvement has its detractors. Critics, including former President Correa, have described the return of foreign forces as “an insult to our public forces and an assault to our sovereignty.” Correa added pointedly: “We do not need foreign soldiers. We need government.” Opposition groups and human rights advocates warn that militarized crackdowns alone cannot solve Ecuador’s deep-rooted problems, which also include poor access to health and education services.
There are also significant concerns about the other referendum measures, particularly the proposal to convene a constituent assembly. Noboa’s critics fear that a constitutional rewrite could allow the president—who enjoys an approval rating of around 56 percent—to consolidate power and curb civil liberties. As FRANCE 24 noted, the body tasked with drafting a new constitution would likely be dominated by Noboa’s allies, raising alarms about potential threats to democratic checks and balances.
Some opposition lawmakers recall how, in August, Noboa led a demonstration against Constitutional Court justices after they limited the scope of his security laws, with officials branding the judges “enemies of the people.” For these critics, the referendum is less about public safety and more about political power.
The context for this debate is Ecuador’s dramatic transformation into a major cocaine transit hub. After Colombia’s 2016 peace deal demobilized the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), international trafficking organizations quickly filled the void, using Ecuador’s Pacific ports and proximity to coca-producing regions in Peru and Colombia to expand their reach. The country’s weak institutions and porous borders have made it a vital link in the global cocaine supply chain, with devastating consequences for public safety.
Against this backdrop, the return of U.S. military forces is seen by some as a pragmatic necessity, while others view it as a dangerous surrender of sovereignty. The debate has even taken on a geopolitical dimension, as President Noboa has sought support from U.S. President Donald Trump, who recently launched deadly air strikes on alleged drug trafficking boats in the Pacific and Caribbean. While many Latin American governments have opposed such interventions, Ecuador has emerged as one of Washington’s staunchest allies in the region.
At the same time, Noboa’s reform agenda extends beyond security. He has called the current constitution, with its more than 400 articles, unwieldy and riddled with errors. He aims to reshape Ecuador’s state and economic model to give more space to the private sector, a move that has drawn both praise from business leaders and skepticism from those worried about social protections.
As Ecuador awaits the official results of the referendum, the stakes could hardly be higher. The outcome will determine not only the country’s approach to drug violence, but also the future of its democracy and its place in a shifting regional landscape. For now, Ecuadorians can only hope that their votes will bring the security and stability they so urgently crave.