Ecuador is once again at the crossroads of its political and security future, as President Daniel Noboa’s administration pushes forward with a controversial referendum that could rewrite the nation’s constitution and reshape its relationship with foreign powers. On Saturday, September 20, 2025, Ecuador’s electoral council gave the green light to Noboa’s request for a national vote on constitutional changes, a move that has ignited fierce debate and drawn international attention.
At the heart of the referendum are two pivotal questions: Should Ecuador eliminate its longstanding prohibition against foreign military bases on its soil, and should the state end its obligation to fund political parties? According to the Associated Press, these proposed changes are part of a broader effort by Noboa’s conservative government to gain new tools in the relentless fight against drug-related violence that has plagued the country in recent years.
Noboa, who was elected to a second term earlier this year at just 37 years old, has made security the cornerstone of his presidency. The urgency is clear: homicide rates in Ecuador, a nation of 18 million people, have tripled since 2020. Once celebrated as one of South America’s safest countries, Ecuador now finds itself in the grip of violent drug cartels battling for control over lucrative smuggling routes along the Pacific coast. As Devdiscourse reports, these conflicts have not only fueled a surge in killings but have also spilled over into the political arena, with city council members and even a presidential candidate assassinated in recent years.
The proposed referendum is not without its legal and political hurdles. Earlier this week, President Noboa issued a decree calling for the referendum and for the creation of a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution. However, on Friday, September 19, Ecuador’s Constitutional Court suspended the request for a constituent assembly, citing ongoing lawsuits challenging the move. Undeterred, Noboa issued a second decree on Saturday, again calling for a referendum on the constituent assembly, a maneuver that some legal experts say is aimed at sidestepping the court’s authority. Salim Zaidan, a constitutional lawyer in Ecuador, told the AP, “(Noboa) is trying to elude the court's efforts to control” the referendum.
One of the most contentious aspects of the referendum is the question of foreign military bases. Ecuador’s 2008 constitution, drafted during the administration of leftist leader Rafael Correa, explicitly banned foreign militaries from operating bases in the country. This was a direct response to the presence of a U.S. military base near the Pacific port of Manta, which had been a key hub for counter-narcotics operations until its lease expired in 2009. According to France 24, Noboa is now seeking to overturn that ban, hoping to pave the way for renewed U.S. military cooperation as part of his hardline approach to fighting organized crime.
Noboa’s drive for closer security ties with the United States comes at a time when Ecuador finds itself sandwiched between Colombia and Peru, the world’s largest cocaine producers. The country’s deep-water ports have become magnets for international cartels and criminal gangs, and Ecuador is now believed to be the departure point for roughly 70 percent of the world’s cocaine supply. Most of this illicit cargo is destined for the United States, but significant quantities also make their way to Europe, Australia, and Asia, as noted by France 24.
The United States, for its part, appears receptive to Noboa’s overtures. Earlier in September, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Ecuador, promising increased security aid and raising the possibility of deploying U.S. troops if invited by the Ecuadorian government. “If they invite us to return, we will consider it very seriously,” Rubio said during his visit, according to France 24. The prospect of U.S. troops returning to Ecuadorian soil has stirred memories of the Manta base era and has become a flashpoint for both supporters and critics of Noboa’s policies.
While Noboa’s supporters argue that foreign military cooperation is a necessary step to stem the tide of cartel violence, opponents warn of the risks to national sovereignty and democratic norms. Rights groups have voiced alarm over Noboa’s militarized approach, which has included deploying the armed forces to some of the country’s most dangerous cities, suspending certain civil liberties, and declaring drug gangs to be enemy combatants. Freedom House, an international watchdog, stated earlier this year that Noboa’s policies have led to “arbitrary arrests, extrajudicial killings, and enforced disappearances.” Critics argue that the use of rolling decrees to establish states of emergency has eroded democratic checks and balances, raising questions about the long-term impact on Ecuador’s political system.
Adding to the complexity, Noboa’s broader vision for constitutional reform includes appointing a commission to propose sweeping changes to the nation’s foundational laws. However, these ambitions face significant legal roadblocks, as the Constitutional Court must approve any such plans—and has previously demonstrated resistance to Noboa’s reform agenda.
Despite the legal wrangling, the electoral council’s decision means that Ecuador is now preparing for a high-stakes national vote. The outcome could fundamentally alter the country’s approach to security, governance, and foreign relations. For many Ecuadorians, the referendum represents a stark choice between embracing tougher measures to restore order and preserving the constitutional safeguards that have defined the nation since Correa’s presidency.
The debate over foreign military bases is particularly charged. Supporters of the referendum argue that Ecuador needs all the help it can get to combat the sophisticated and well-armed cartels that have turned the country into a major drug trafficking hub. They point to the previous success of U.S.-Ecuadorian cooperation in disrupting smuggling networks and argue that renewed military presence could provide much-needed resources and intelligence.
Opponents, however, caution that allowing foreign troops back into Ecuador could undermine national sovereignty and set a dangerous precedent. They also express concern that increased militarization, both domestic and foreign, could exacerbate human rights abuses and further erode democratic norms. The memory of the 2008 constitutional reforms, which were designed to assert Ecuador’s independence and protect against foreign interference, looms large in the public consciousness.
As the referendum approaches, the stakes could hardly be higher. Ecuador’s future—its security, its democracy, and its place in the world—hangs in the balance. The choices made in the coming months will reverberate far beyond the country’s borders, shaping the trajectory of a nation at the epicenter of the global fight against organized crime.
Whatever the outcome, one thing is certain: Ecuador’s struggle to balance security and sovereignty in the face of relentless cartel violence will remain a defining challenge for years to come.