On November 16, 2025, Ecuadorians will head to the polls for a referendum that could reshape the country’s constitution and its approach to fighting drug-related violence. The National Electoral Council’s decision on September 21 to approve the vote marks a pivotal moment for the South American nation, as President Daniel Noboa’s administration seeks new tools to address a spiraling security crisis. The referendum poses two major questions: Should Ecuador lift its long-standing ban on foreign military bases? And should the state end its obligation to fund political parties?
This move comes as Ecuador, once considered among the safest countries in the region, faces a dramatic surge in violence. Homicide rates have tripled since 2020, according to Arab Times, driven by drug gangs vying for control over smuggling routes and ports along the Pacific coast. These criminal organizations have not only trafficked narcotics but also infiltrated local politics, assassinating city council members and even a presidential candidate who opposed Noboa two years ago.
President Noboa, a 37-year-old conservative elected to a second term earlier this year, has responded with tough measures. His government has militarized some of Ecuador’s most violent cities, suspended civil liberties, and officially declared drug gangs as enemy combatants. According to Reuters, Noboa argues that these gangs operate through international networks, making it essential to collaborate with other countries to effectively combat them.
One of the most contentious topics on the November ballot is the proposal to remove the constitutional prohibition on foreign military bases. This ban, established in 2008 under leftist President Rafael Correa, was a direct response to the presence of a U.S. military base in the coastal city of Manta, which operated for a decade until its lease expired in 2009. Correa’s government refused to renew the permit, framing the decision as a matter of national sovereignty.
Now, Noboa is pushing to reverse that policy. He has called for increased military cooperation with the United States, which has pledged robust support in Ecuador’s fight against organized crime. According to Devdiscourse, the U.S. has announced it will maintain strong collaboration with the Ecuadorian government, a move that aligns with Noboa’s strategy to dismantle transnational drug trafficking networks.
But not everyone is convinced this is the right path. Domestic opposition voices have warned that allowing foreign troops on Ecuadorian soil may not resolve the country’s security woes. Instead, critics say, what’s really needed is a comprehensive, homegrown crime-fighting blueprint. As Reuters reports, opposition groups argue that “foreign military presence alone will not solve the country's security problems and that the government needs a clear plan to combat crime.”
The debate over foreign military bases is deeply rooted in questions of sovereignty and national pride. Former President Correa, who led the 2008 constitutional reform, has been especially vocal. Earlier this year, he posted on X (formerly Twitter) that reintroducing foreign bases would be “an insult to our public forces and an assault to our sovereignty.” He added pointedly, “We do not need foreign soldiers. We need government.”
Yet, the Noboa administration sees things differently. Salim Zaidan, a prominent constitutional lawyer, told the Arab Times that Noboa’s maneuvering—issuing a second decree after the Constitutional Court initially suspended the referendum’s constituent assembly question—shows the president’s determination to push through these reforms. Zaidan suggested this could allow the electoral council to sidestep court efforts to block the referendum altogether, stating, “(Noboa) is trying to elude the court's efforts to control” the referendum.
The referendum will also ask voters whether the state should continue providing public funds to political parties. This proposal has sparked its own debate, with supporters arguing that cutting this funding could reduce government spending and corruption, while opponents warn it may weaken democratic institutions and limit political competition.
Diana Atamaint, president of the National Electoral Council (CNE), confirmed the comprehensive preparation framework for the November vote, posting on X, “We approve the call, guidelines, operational plan, budget, risk and contingency matrix, and calendar for the 2025 Referendum.” According to Devdiscourse, Atamaint and the CNE have been working to ensure the process is transparent and well-organized, especially given the high stakes and intense public scrutiny.
Underlying all of these legal and political maneuvers is the escalating violence that has gripped Ecuador. The country’s population of 18 million has endured a wave of drug-fueled crime that, just five years ago, would have seemed unimaginable. The murder of a presidential candidate and the targeting of local officials have sent shockwaves through society, eroding trust in public institutions and fueling a sense of urgency for change.
Noboa’s administration has responded with what some describe as “iron-fisted” policies. According to the Arab Times, these include not only militarizing cities but also declaring a kind of internal war against drug gangs. The government’s willingness to consider foreign military assistance is, for many, a sign of just how desperate the situation has become. Noboa’s alliance with the United States—reminiscent of the days when the U.S. operated out of Manta—signals a shift away from the anti-imperialist rhetoric of the Correa era.
Still, the legacy of the U.S. base in Manta looms large in the national consciousness. For a decade, American forces helped Ecuador monitor and interdict drug shipments, but their presence was always controversial. Critics saw it as an infringement on sovereignty, while supporters pointed to its role in reducing crime and strengthening bilateral ties. The 2008 constitutional ban was, in many ways, a reaction to this controversy, and any move to reverse it is bound to reignite old debates.
As the November referendum approaches, Ecuadorians are being asked to make profound decisions about the country’s future. Should the state embrace international military cooperation at the risk of compromising its autonomy? Or should it double down on domestic solutions, even as violence continues to escalate? And what of the role of political parties—should public money continue to support them, or is it time for a new model of political engagement?
President Noboa has made his position clear: International cooperation is essential, and the constitution must evolve to meet new threats. Opposition leaders, meanwhile, warn that sovereignty and effective governance cannot be outsourced. The outcome of the November vote will not only determine the fate of foreign military bases and party funding but also signal the direction Ecuador chooses in its battle against crime and its quest for stability.
With the referendum just weeks away, the country stands at a crossroads—torn between the urgency of security and the enduring questions of independence and democracy. The world will be watching as Ecuadorians decide which path to take.