The United States finds itself at a crossroads, grappling with a turbulent economy and a deepening sense of political polarization under Donald Trump’s second term. The latest analyses from both mainstream Democratic strategists and left-wing activists paint a sobering picture: authoritarian tactics are on the rise, social safety nets are being slashed, and Americans are feeling the pinch in their wallets and their communities.
Jesse F. Ferguson, a veteran Democratic strategist, published an article on December 1, 2025, drawing a sharp parallel between the collapse of the Soviet Union 35 years ago and the current trajectory of the Trump administration. According to Ferguson, the fall of the USSR was less about ideological rejection of authoritarianism and more about the regime’s failure to meet basic economic needs. "Authoritarianism doesn’t fall because people reject it in the abstract. It falls when it fails to put food on the table," he wrote, referencing the work of economist János Kornai and historian Michael Kort. Ferguson’s argument is clear: Trump’s embrace of authoritarian tactics is being undermined not by abstract concerns about democracy, but by concrete economic failures that Americans experience daily.
Polling data from Navigator Research underscores this reality. Sixty-one percent of voters say inflation and the cost of living are the most important issues for the President and Congress to address, yet only 25% believe Trump and Republicans are focused on these concerns—a staggering 36-point gap. The disconnect is even more glaring when it comes to healthcare, Social Security, and jobs. Instead, Trump’s administration is over-indexing on issues like immigration and transgender rights, with a 43-point and 17-point overemphasis, respectively, compared to what voters actually prioritize.
Gallup’s August 2025 data reveals the political cost of these missteps. Trump’s overall approval rating sits at 40%, barely budging from his first-term average. But the real damage is on the economic front: his approval on the economy has cratered from 52% during his first term to just 37% now—a 15-point drop in what was once seen as his greatest strength.
The economic pain is real and growing. As outlined in a perspectives document passed by the Socialist Alternative US Convention in late November 2025, the U.S. economy is showing signs of deep structural weakness. Growth has slowed to just 1.6% for the year, a significant drop from 2.8% in 2024, according to Federal Reserve projections. The job market is deteriorating, with 911,000 fewer jobs created than previously reported, and unemployment among young people and Black workers rising sharply. Inflation remains stubborn, with consumer prices up 2.9% in August and groceries a staggering 29% more expensive since the pandemic. Tariffs—now at their highest since 1935—are adding an average of $2,300 in costs for American households in 2025, according to Yale University’s Budget Lab.
Republicans in Congress have recently passed the largest Medicaid cuts in U.S. history, threatening healthcare for millions of seniors, children, and people with disabilities. These austerity measures are hitting at the same time that Trump’s tariffs are raising the price of everyday goods. The result is a sense of economic betrayal, as Ferguson puts it: "Trump promised to make life more affordable. Instead, he’s making it harder and more expensive while consolidating power and enriching his allies."
These policies are not going unnoticed by voters. Recent elections in Virginia and New Jersey saw Democratic candidates Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherill win decisively among voters who prioritized the economy. Exit polling showed Spanberger winning by 27 points among those focused on economic issues, and Sherill by 33 points. Their campaigns zeroed in on affordability—healthcare, housing, and energy costs—rather than abstract threats to democracy. As Ferguson notes, "Neither ran an ad on authoritarianism, fascism or the threat to democracy—and they didn’t have to."
Yet, even as dissatisfaction grows, the opposition remains fragmented. The Socialist Alternative’s November 2025 document describes Trump’s administration as a "parliamentary Bonapartist regime"—a government consolidating authoritarian power while implementing austerity and targeting oppressed groups, including immigrant workers and trans people. Despite record-low approval ratings since June, Trump’s grip on power seems unshaken. The Democratic Party, meanwhile, is described as even less popular than the Republicans, paralyzed by internal divisions and a demoralized base.
The document situates these developments within a broader global context. The world is witnessing a new era of capitalist decay, marked by intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China, youth-led uprisings against inequality, and the rise of far-right movements in Europe and beyond. The U.S. is not immune: the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk led to a memorial described as an "extreme-right, Christian, white nationalist rally sponsored by the US government." Mass protests continue to erupt, but the left and working-class organizations remain weak and disoriented, limiting their ability to mount effective resistance.
Still, the seeds of future struggle are being sown. The Socialist Alternative document anticipates that ongoing austerity and repression will provoke further social upheaval and create openings for rebuilding working-class organization. It notes that while Trump’s regime has consolidated power, it remains inherently unstable—subject to contradictions within the ruling class and the potential for mass protests to tip the balance.
Underlying all of this is a profound sense of political polarization and alienation. Americans are losing faith in institutions, with only 37% holding a positive view of big business according to Gallup, and just 15% of young people believing the country is on the right track, per the Harvard Youth Poll. The Democratic Party’s inability to offer a compelling alternative has led to a surge in independent and third-party candidates, but the left remains hamstrung by a lack of leadership and coherent organization.
The crisis of confidence in both major parties is mirrored by a broader global malaise. The Socialist Alternative points to mass protests from the "Arab Spring" to Black Lives Matter, and the continued rise of both left-wing and right-wing populism. The document warns that unless the left can offer a credible alternative—grounded in working-class struggle and solidarity—Trump’s brand of authoritarian, nationalist politics will continue to dominate.
As Americans head into another election cycle, the stakes could hardly be higher. The lesson from history, as Ferguson and the Socialist Alternative both suggest, is that authoritarian regimes are most vulnerable not when they are denounced in the abstract, but when they fail to deliver on the everyday needs of ordinary people. Whether the opposition can seize this moment, translating economic discontent into effective political action, remains an open question—but one with enormous consequences for the future of American democracy.
