As the Dutch prepare to cast their ballots on October 29, 2025, the Netherlands finds itself at a political crossroads, with the nation’s third general election in less than five years set to determine the direction of its next government. The campaign’s final days have been marked by fierce debate over migration and housing, reflecting anxieties that echo across Europe, while the controversial figure of Geert Wilders and his far-right Freedom Party (PVV) remains at the center of the storm.
According to the Associated Press, the campaign’s closing stretch has focused almost exclusively on two issues: how to rein in migration and how to resolve a deepening housing crisis. Climate change and defense spending have faded into the background, overshadowed by the urgency of these domestic concerns. The PVV, led by Wilders, has for months topped national polls, but the final survey before the vote revealed a dramatic shift: three parties, including the PVV, were tied for first place, raising doubts about Wilders’ chances of returning to government.
The context for this election is one of political turbulence. The outgoing government, led by independent Prime Minister Dick Schoof, lasted just 11 months—one of the shortest in Dutch history. Its collapse was triggered in June 2025 when Wilders abruptly withdrew his party from the coalition, frustrated by the failure to pass what he called Europe’s toughest asylum and immigration policies. This move deprived the coalition of its majority and set the stage for another snap election, as reported by multiple sources including the BBC and AP.
Wilders’ PVV had previously secured a sweeping victory in the November 2023 election, winning 37 seats but failing to form a stable government. In an attempt to broaden his appeal, Wilders even gave up his claim to the prime ministership last year, hoping to bring other right-wing parties into the fold. Yet, divisions over migration policy proved insurmountable, and his party’s exit in June left the remaining coalition partners—the center-right New Social Contract (NSC), the conservative-liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), and the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB)—with just 51 of 150 seats in the House of Representatives.
The campaign trail has seen Wilders doubling down on his signature issues. His 10-point plan, widely reported by outlets such as Politico and the BBC, calls for freezing all asylum applications from Muslim-majority countries, leaving the European Union’s free-movement scheme, cutting foreign aid, and severing diplomatic ties with Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Domestically, he has promised to reduce social housing rents by 10%, raise income thresholds for affordable housing, expand benefits for caregivers, and cut prescription drug costs. But at the heart of his campaign is his anti-Islam platform, which includes a ban on the burqa, the Islamic call to prayer, and the public sale of Arabic and other “non-Western” texts. “This is your country! The Netherlands is full, overcrowded, jam-packed,” his manifesto declares, as cited by the BBC.
Wilders’ rhetoric has drawn sharp criticism from mainstream parties, who argue that his decision to collapse the previous government shows he cannot be trusted as a coalition partner. Henri Bontenbal, leader of the Christian Democrats and a possible prime ministerial candidate, told national broadcaster NOS, “In the end, it is about the question of who is going to lead the next coalition, what kind of politics are we going to see in the coming years. We have seen a lot of chaos and I think the Netherlands now hankers for something different.” This sentiment reflects a broader desire for stability after years of political upheaval.
Polls opened across the country at 7:30 a.m. local time, with nearly 10 million voters expected to participate—a turnout rate that often approaches 80% in the Netherlands, according to Politico. The Dutch system of proportional representation all but guarantees that no party will win an outright majority, making coalition-building a necessity. Yet, the path to government appears more complicated than ever. The AP reports that the Labour-Greens alliance (PvdA–GroenLinks) is polling around 25 seats, the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) has surged to about 23, and the centrist liberal alliance is expected to take 16. The once-dominant VVD, led for years by Mark Rutte before his 2023 resignation, is polling near 15 seats, a sharp drop from its previous strength.
Despite the PVV’s lead in earlier polls, the final pre-election survey showed Wilders’ party tied with two rivals, a development that drastically reduces his chances of forming a government. The refusal of major parties—the CDA, VVD, and the PvdA–GroenLinks alliance—to join a Wilders-led coalition means that, even if the PVV emerges as the largest bloc, the Netherlands could face months of protracted coalition negotiations and potentially another period of political limbo. Nearly half of Dutch voters remained undecided in the final days before the vote, according to Ipsos, underscoring just how fluid and unpredictable the race has become.
The election’s outcome will also be watched closely across Europe, where the rise of far-right parties has become a defining trend. Yet, as Politico notes, translating electoral momentum into actual power has proven difficult for such parties, given the complexities of coalition politics and the reluctance of mainstream actors to cooperate with them.
Adding to the government’s instability, Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp resigned in August over divisions regarding Israel policy, highlighting the fragility of the outgoing administration. Meanwhile, King Willem-Alexander, in a speech written by the government last month, called for a return to the Dutch tradition of compromise in the face of growing polarization and the succession of short-lived governments. His appeal comes as the country braces for what could be another drawn-out process of coalition-building.
Wilders, for his part, has urged supporters to give the PVV enough votes to force other parties to the negotiating table. At a weekend campaign event, he said, “I hope people will vote with their hearts and with their minds so that at the end of the day my party will become the biggest and then we will deal with all the other parties.” Yet, with the final polls showing no clear frontrunner, the prospect of a PVV-led government seems less certain than ever.
As the Netherlands votes, the nation stands at a pivotal moment, grappling with questions of identity, belonging, and the practical realities of governing in a deeply divided political landscape. The outcome, whatever it may be, will shape not only Dutch policy on migration and housing but also the broader debate over the future of European democracy in an era of rising populism and polarization.