The NFL MVP race has taken a dramatic turn in the final days of the 2025 regular season, with New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye vaulting past Los Angeles Rams veteran Matthew Stafford after a whirlwind Week 17. What a wild ride it’s been! Just a week ago, Stafford seemed to have the award in his grasp, but a disastrous Monday Night Football performance against the Atlanta Falcons has flipped the script, putting Maye squarely in the driver’s seat for one of football’s most coveted honors.
For much of the season, the narrative revolved around the remarkable resurgence of Stafford, who at age 37 led the league in touchdown passes and was the odds-on favorite to claim his first MVP. But it’s Maye, the Patriots’ second-year sensation and No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, who’s now the talk of the league. Under the guidance of head coach Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, Maye has blossomed into one of the game’s most efficient and dynamic passers, guiding New England to a 13-3 record and their first division title since the days of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
Heading into Week 17, Stafford’s MVP odds were as strong as ever—he sat at -225 at DraftKings and -250 at FanDuel, an implied probability that seemed close to a lock. All he needed was a solid outing against a struggling Falcons team. Instead, disaster struck. Stafford’s first half was nothing short of a nightmare: he completed just 9-of-17 passes for 96 yards, threw two interceptions (including a 34-yard pick-six to Falcons safety Jessie Bates III), and was sacked for a nine-yard loss. The Rams trailed 21-0 at halftime, and Stafford’s MVP hopes began to unravel in real time.
“Stafford entered Monday as the favorite to win NFL MVP at -250. But after that loss to the Falcons went final, Maye is now leading the pack at -550, per FanDuel,” reported Boston.com. The shift was as sudden as it was dramatic. By halftime, Maye’s odds had soared to -340 at FanDuel, with Stafford plummeting to +280. DraftKings showed a similar trend, with Maye overtaking Stafford as the favorite at -175 after the second interception. Even as Stafford rallied in the second half—finishing the game 22-of-38 for 269 yards, two touchdowns, and three picks—the damage was done. The Rams clawed back to tie the game at 24-24, but ultimately lost on a late field goal, sealing Stafford’s fate and vaulting Maye into pole position for the MVP.
Meanwhile, Maye was busy making history of his own. On Sunday, he delivered a record-setting performance in a 42-10 rout of the New York Jets, completing 19-of-21 passes for 256 yards and a career-high five touchdowns, all without a single interception. His completion percentage for the game—90.5%—was nearly flawless, and he posted a near-perfect passer rating of 157.0. According to multiple outlets, it marked the first time in NFL history a quarterback recorded at least 255 passing yards, five touchdowns, and a completion percentage of 90% or better in a single game.
“They don’t give me [an MVP] vote, but I would [give it to him],” Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel said after Sunday’s win, as quoted by Boston.com. “There’s nobody else that we want as our quarterback or that I want as our quarterback.” Vrabel himself is in the running for Coach of the Year, but he’s been quick to credit Maye’s leadership and poise for the Patriots’ stunning turnaround—from four wins in 2024 to 13 (and counting) in 2025.
Maye’s statistical dominance this season is hard to ignore. Through 17 games, he leads the NFL in passer rating (112.9) and completion percentage (71.7%), has thrown for 4,203 yards and 30 touchdowns against just eight interceptions, and has added another 409 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns to his resume. He’s thrown for at least 250 yards in 12 of 16 games and multiple touchdowns in 11 contests. The young signal-caller has outperformed Stafford in several key categories: record (13-3 vs. 11-5), completion percentage, yards per attempt (8.9 to 8.1), passer rating, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns. Stafford, for his part, still leads in passing yards per game (278.8 to 262.7), total touchdown passes (42 to 30), and has thrown fewer interceptions (eight to Maye’s eight, depending on the latest stat update).
Stafford’s season, despite the late stumble, has been impressive by any measure. He’s thrown for over 4,400 yards, 42 touchdowns, and eight interceptions, operating in a high-powered Rams offense featuring stars like Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. But the timing of his worst performance—just as MVP voters were making up their minds—couldn’t have been worse. With the Rams potentially resting starters in Week 18 ahead of the playoffs, Stafford may not have another chance to sway the narrative.
As for Maye and the Patriots, the stakes remain high. They’ll host the Miami Dolphins in their regular-season finale on January 5, 2026, with a shot at clinching the No. 1 seed in the AFC if they win and the Denver Broncos falter against the Los Angeles Chargers. Even if New England settles for the No. 2 seed, the transformation under Maye and Vrabel is undeniable. The Patriots’ 13 wins mark their best season since 2017, and their first division crown since 2019—back when Tom Brady was still under center.
“The results speak for themselves, as he’s led the Patriots to their first division title since a guy named Tom Brady was the quarterback and Bill Belichick was coaching,” Newsweek observed, underscoring both the historical significance and the high expectations now surrounding Maye’s young career.
The Rams, meanwhile, will wrap up their regular season against the Arizona Cardinals, hoping to lock in playoff positioning. While some analysts still consider Stafford and the Rams strong Super Bowl contenders, their quarterback’s MVP dreams now hang by a thread.
In a season filled with twists and turns, the MVP race between Maye and Stafford has captured the imagination of fans and pundits alike. Will Maye’s late-season heroics be enough to secure the award? Or could one final twist await in Week 18? With the action still unfolding, all eyes are on the league’s brightest stars as the regular season comes to a close.
One thing’s for sure: this MVP battle has delivered drama, history, and plenty of fireworks—just the way NFL fans like it.
