The Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors are set to square off in what promises to be a high-octane Western Conference clash this Sunday, February 22, 2026, at Chase Center in San Francisco. It’s the third meeting of the season between these two storied franchises, with tipoff scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET and national coverage on ABC. Both teams have split their season series so far, and with playoff implications looming, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
The Warriors, currently eighth in the Western Conference with a 29-27 record, are looking to snap a two-game losing streak and regain momentum after a tough 121-110 home loss to the Boston Celtics. The Nuggets, meanwhile, have climbed to third in the West at 36-21, fresh off a resounding 157-103 blowout win over the Portland Trail Blazers. Denver’s road form has been impressive—posting a 21-10 mark away from home—while Golden State boasts an 18-11 record at Chase Center.
Injuries, however, are casting a long shadow over both squads. Golden State’s star guard Steph Curry will miss his seventh straight game due to a knee injury, and the Dubs are also without Jimmy Butler (ACL), Seth Curry (sciatica), and Kristaps Porzingis (illness). For Denver, Aaron Gordon (hamstring), Peyton Watson (hamstring), Tamar Bates (foot), and Jalen Pickett (knee) are all sidelined, while All-Star Jamal Murray is questionable with right hamstring tightness. Depth will be tested on both benches, and rotations could get creative as coaches look to patch together winning lineups.
The probable starting five for the Warriors features Draymond Green, Gui Santos, De’Anthony Melton, Moses Moody, and Pat Spencer. On the other side, the Nuggets are expected to roll out Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray (if available), Christian Braun, and Julian Strawther. With so many key absences, the spotlight is set to shine even brighter on the stars who do take the court.
Denver’s offensive engine remains Nikola Jokic, the three-time MVP who is averaging a stunning 28.6 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 10.5 assists per game this season. Jokic’s ability to elevate teammates and control the tempo makes him a nightmare matchup for any opponent. Jamal Murray, should he suit up, brings averages of 25.6 points, 7.6 assists, and 4.5 rebounds, and his presence could be a difference-maker. Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown, Spencer Jones, and Jonas Valanciunas round out a deep supporting cast that’s helped Denver lead the NBA in scoring at 120.9 points per game. The Nuggets also top the league in offensive rating and three-point percentage, making them a threat to explode offensively at any moment.
Defensively, Denver allows 116.1 points per game—good for 17th in the league—and ranks 23rd in defensive rating. They’re eighth in opponents’ three-point percentage, a critical stat against a Warriors squad that’s never shy about launching from deep. Still, Denver’s defense has been up and down, and with several key defenders out, the challenge only grows.
Golden State, for its part, has had a tumultuous season. The Warriors have gone 25-31 against the spread and are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games. Their offense, ranked 16th in the NBA at 115.4 points per game, has sputtered without Curry and Butler, averaging just 107.3 points over the last three losses. Brandin Podziemski (12.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists), De’Anthony Melton (11.9 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists), and Moses Moody have tried to pick up the slack, but the lack of a go-to scorer is glaring. Draymond Green’s leadership and defensive acumen remain vital, but even he can only do so much with so many stars sidelined.
On defense, the Warriors are allowing 113.8 points per game, ranking 11th in the league. Their defensive rating is ninth, and they’re 18th in opponents’ field goal percentage allowed. While Golden State still launches the most perimeter shots in the NBA, their 22nd-ranked field goal percentage reflects the absence of their top shooters. The Dubs’ bench, featuring players like Al Horford and Pat Spencer, has provided solid minutes, but the offensive firepower just hasn’t been there lately.
The all-time series between these teams favors Denver, 110-87, but the season has been a seesaw. The Warriors took the opening night thriller in overtime, 137-131, before Denver responded with a dominant 129-104 victory in the second matchup. With both teams missing key contributors and the season series on the line, Sunday’s contest is shaping up to be a battle of resilience and adaptability.
Oddsmakers have the Nuggets as 6.5 to 7.5-point favorites, with moneyline odds at -270 for Denver and +220 for Golden State. The game total sits at 227.5 points, and SportsLine’s model projects the Over to hit nearly 70% of the time, with both teams expected to combine for around 239 points. The model also projects Jokic to pour in about 28 points and four Nuggets players to reach double figures, while Kristaps Porzingis (if healthy) would be expected to lead the Warriors with over 21 points. However, with Porzingis officially out, the Warriors will need others to step up in a big way.
As for intangibles, Denver’s ability to maintain offensive efficiency despite injuries has been impressive—they’re covering the spread at a 56.1% rate this season, the sixth-best in the NBA. Golden State’s home-court advantage is real, but their recent form and injury woes have dampened expectations. Still, with Steve Kerr at the helm, the Warriors are never truly out of a fight, especially in front of a raucous Chase Center crowd.
So, who’s got the edge? Denver’s deeper roster, led by Jokic’s MVP-caliber play and a supporting cast that’s stepped up all season, makes them the clear favorites. But don’t count the Warriors out entirely—if their role players catch fire from beyond the arc and the defense tightens up, they could keep things interesting. With both teams looking to send a message as the playoff race heats up, fans can expect plenty of drama and maybe a few surprises along the way.
With the action set to tip off shortly, all eyes are on San Francisco to see which Western Conference contender will seize the moment and take a crucial step forward in the playoff chase. Buckle up—this one’s far from settled.