As the 2025 and 2026 election cycles heat up, the strategies adopted by leading Democrats in battleground states are coming under the microscope. In Virginia, the gubernatorial race between Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and Democrat Abigail Spanberger has been dominated by culture war issues, particularly transgender rights in schools. Meanwhile, in Arizona, Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs is charting a different course, choosing pragmatism and bipartisanship over direct confrontation with former President Donald Trump, even as critics warn of the risks.
The contrasts between these two high-stakes campaigns reveal much about the evolving playbook for Democrats hoping to win in states where the political winds are unpredictable—and where the shadow of Trump looms large.
In Virginia, the November 4, 2025, gubernatorial election is drawing national attention. With Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin ineligible for re-election after assuming office in 2022, Earle-Sears is hoping to keep the governor’s mansion in GOP hands. Her campaign has spent millions on ads attacking Spanberger’s stance on transgender rights in schools, echoing tactics used by the Trump campaign in the 2024 presidential race. One ad claims Spanberger supports "men in girls' locker rooms," and closes with the pointed line, "Abigail Spanberger is for they/them, not us."
This focus is not new for Virginia Republicans. As reported by ABC News, Youngkin’s own 2021 campaign made parental rights and opposition to certain transgender accommodations in schools a centerpiece. Since taking office, Youngkin has rolled back accommodations for transgender students and increased parental notification requirements. Nicole Neily, president of the nonprofit Defending Education, told ABC News, “This is an issue that has been on the radar of parents across Virginia,” but added, “I can't see this flipping the election by any stretch.”
Earle-Sears has doubled down on the issue, stating, “This is about fairness, safety, and opportunity. As governor, I will preserve those rights and protect our children's future. Voters know that, and they know I mean it because I've been standing with them since 2021, and I will keep standing with them as Governor.”
Spanberger, however, has taken a different tack. She’s called out the "$30 million worth of attack ads against me related to trans youth" and accused her opponents of "fearmongering." In an interview with Katie Couric, Spanberger said, “I do find it really objectionable that there would be kids who turn on the television and as in an effort to attack me, see images of themselves sort of reflected as a villain.” She insists decisions about sports participation and bathroom usage should be made locally by parents, teachers, and administrators—not dictated by federal or state governments. Her campaign ad underscores this, stating, “I believe we need to get politics out of our schools and trust parents and local communities.”
Despite the barrage of ads, Spanberger has maintained a lead in the polls. According to a recent Christopher Newport University poll cited by ABC News, Virginians are more concerned about inflation and threats to democracy than about transgender rights. The state’s 300,000-plus federal workers, many affected by the ongoing government shutdown, may also be a factor in voters’ priorities.
Republican strategist Tucker Martin told ABC News that Earle-Sears’ campaign was facing an uphill climb, especially with Trump back in the White House and having lost Virginia three times in a row. “Transgender issues just aren't top of mind for Virginians right now,” he said. “What works well in Florida or Wisconsin may not work well in Virginia or New Jersey.” Martin did note, however, that such issues could become "powerful" in competitive congressional races.
Democrats, for their part, are eager to frame the Republican approach as out of touch. Viet Shelton, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said, “Republicans have given in to the most extreme fringes of their party by abandoning pocketbook issues in favor of an anti-freedom agenda that is obsessed with letting politicians make decisions that should be left to parents and doctors.” Shelton argued that House Democrats are focused on expanding the middle class, lowering costs, and protecting freedoms, and that this would be their winning formula in 2026.
Spanberger has generally avoided addressing the transgender debate head-on, instead highlighting her background as a federal law enforcement officer and advocating for local decision-making. Tucker Martin observed, “I wouldn't say the Spanberger campaign has handled it well, but what they have going for them is it's just not an issue in Virginia that voters are particularly concerned about.”
In Arizona, the political calculus is different but equally complex. Governor Katie Hobbs, facing reelection in 2026, is opting for a centrist strategy, focusing on bipartisan accomplishments and the local economy rather than attacking Trump directly. On October 18, 2025, when Attorney General Kris Mayes delivered a fiery anti-Trump speech at the No Kings rally in Phoenix, Hobbs was conspicuously absent and silent on the protest.
According to the Arizona Mirror, Hobbs’ campaign communications director Michael Beyer said, “Katie Hobbs is never going to stop working across the aisle to get things done for Arizonans. That’s what she campaigned on, that’s how she’s governed, and that’s what she will continue to do.” Hobbs has signed more than 725 bipartisan bills into law and vetoed 390, most of which had only Republican support.
This pragmatic approach aligns with recommendations from the centrist Democratic group Welcome, whose October 27, 2025, report "Deciding to Win" urges candidates to focus on the economy and moderate their stances to reflect public opinion. But not everyone is convinced. Political strategist Rachel Bitecofer criticized Hobbs for being too meek in her criticisms of Trump, arguing, “It’s not just enough to start talking about economic issues. There has to be a hero and a villain in the story.”
At her "Arizona First" rallies, Hobbs has highlighted her bipartisan work and contrasted it with Trump and congressional Republicans' July 2025 budget, which she claims passed without Democratic support. Her campaign emphasizes putting people first and politics last, opposing Republican policies like Medicaid cuts and job-killing tax hikes. “By putting people first and politics last, Katie Hobbs proves every day that she’s keeping her promise to put Arizona first—lowering costs, securing the border, and creating good-paying jobs,” Beyer said.
On border security, Hobbs has even praised Trump’s efforts to curb illegal crossings and received recognition from Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem for her work against fentanyl trafficking. Yet she’s also criticized the Trump administration for targeting day laborers without criminal records for deportation, telling the Associated Press, “I would continue to advocate for the president to keep his promise and go after the people that are making us unsafe.”
Hobbs’ support for the LGBTQ community is well documented—she has vetoed anti-transgender bills—but her absence from the Phoenix Pride Festival in late October 2025 raised eyebrows. Her spokesman explained she was in Mexico for trade meetings at the time, though she was in Phoenix the day before, posting a photo from a local hike but not mentioning the festival.
Republican strategist Barrett Marson told the Arizona Mirror, “Gov. Hobbs is looking at realities. She has to tack to center if she has a chance of winning. She can’t rely on Kari Lake coming in to save her.” Marson and others note that Hobbs and Attorney General Mayes—both Democrats who won close races in 2022—are taking different approaches: Mayes is running as a leader in the resistance, while Hobbs is touting bipartisan successes.
As Democrats in both states navigate the challenges of appealing to moderates without alienating their base, the divergent strategies of Spanberger and Hobbs may offer lessons for the party as it heads into the 2026 midterms. Whether voters will reward confrontation or pragmatism remains to be seen, but the stakes could hardly be higher.
