The battle for control of state legislatures across the United States is heating up as the 2026 midterm elections approach, with Democratic strategists eyeing key opportunities in Arizona, Kansas, and California. In a coordinated push, national and state Democratic organizations are pouring unprecedented resources into statehouse races, hoping to flip Republican-held chambers or break long-standing GOP supermajorities. The stakes are high, and both parties are preparing for a contest that could reshape the political landscape in several pivotal states.
On December 12, 2025, the Democratic Party’s campaign arm for state legislatures announced a sweeping $50 million investment in competitive state house races nationwide, placing Arizona on its list of top priorities for the first time in years. According to AZPM News, Arizona joins swing states like Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania on the Democrats’ 2026 target map. This marks a strategic shift for the party, which previously considered Arizona a lower-priority battleground.
Republicans currently hold a four-seat advantage in the Arizona State Senate and a six-seat margin in the Arizona House of Representatives. Democrats have not controlled either chamber since the early 1990s, but recent elections have shown a slow erosion of the GOP’s grip, especially in the House. The 2024 cycle saw Democrat Kevin Volk flip a Republican-held seat in the 17th legislative district—the only such gain for his party that year. Volk, reflecting on his victory, emphasized the importance of connecting with voters on substantive issues. “The people who will decide this election in Arizona and across the country are not interested in social media hits and the same old partisan talking points, and the hyperpartisanship we’re seeing today,” he told AZPM News. “They want to know that someone is actually dedicated to solving problems for them.”
In Volk’s Tucson-area district, voters’ top concerns included public education funding, economic growth, water resources, and border security. North of Tucson, in the fast-growing suburbs of Pinal County, both parties have scored recent victories. Jennifer Hilsbos, chair of the Pinal County Democratic Party, noted that a surge in national funding in 2025 enabled local Democrats to recruit and train homegrown organizers, focusing their agenda on working-class economic issues. “If you work forty hours a week, you should be able to afford a house, you should not be struggling, you should not be needing to rely on benefit programs from the federal government,” Hilsbos asserted.
The shifting priorities of Arizona voters are reflected in a November 2025 Emerson College poll, which found the economy has overtaken immigration as the leading concern. Notably, 54% of Arizonans disapproved of President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy. Despite these headwinds, Republicans remain confident. Longtime GOP operative Sean Noble told AZPM News that Democrats “offer no actual solutions to everyday problems” and that Republicans must “continue to point out that Democrats are out of touch from working families.” Noble also downplayed comparisons between the upcoming midterms and the 2010 Tea Party wave, arguing that the current Republican-backed One Big Beautiful Bill Act—which cut Medicaid funding but introduced new tax deductions for middle- and working-class voters—will boost the party’s standing by November.
Meanwhile, in Kansas, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) has identified breaking the Republican supermajority in the Statehouse as a top goal for 2026. The DLCC’s analysis of 2025 elections showed Democrats overperforming in targeted districts by an average of 4.5 points, suggesting the potential for significant gains if the trend continues. As reported by Kansas News Service, Democrats need to flip five seats in the Kansas House of Representatives to end the GOP’s supermajority, which has persisted since 2010.
DLCC president Heather Williams called 2026 a “once in-a-generation opportunity” to transform state-level legislative power in Kansas. “By adding Kansas to the DLCC’s target map, we are expanding our winning strategy to chip away at Republican power and create lasting power in statehouses all across the country,” Williams said. The DLCC’s broader strategy targets 11 states to break or prevent Republican supermajorities and sets an ambitious fundraising goal of $50 million for 2026. House Minority Leader Brandon Woodard echoed the optimism, stating, “We are thrilled the DLCC recognizes the opportunity to elect more Democrats in the Kansas House as we hold Republicans accountable for failing to address the rising cost of living.”
The committee’s memo highlights a best-case scenario in which Democrats could flip Republican majorities in eight states, secure six new Democratic trifectas, gain 10 new Democratic supermajorities, and break 10 GOP supermajorities. While the focus in Kansas is on the House, the Senate remains a more distant target, requiring Democrats to win five additional seats to break the supermajority there.
California, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, is not immune to the shifting tides. Recent analysis by The Press-Enterprise and Daily Bulletin indicates that Inland Empire Republicans Leticia Castillo and Greg Wallis could be vulnerable in the 2026 elections if a Democratic “blue wave” materializes. Castillo, a marriage and family therapist from Corona, won the 58th Assembly District seat in 2024 by just 596 votes, despite being outspent and running in a district where 41% of voters are registered Democrats and only 28% are Republicans as of October 2025. Her district includes Jurupa Valley, Grand Terrace, and parts of Corona, Eastvale, and Riverside.
Castillo remains focused on her constituents rather than party politics. “I am confident voters will judge me by my work, not by party labels or outside spending,” she said in an email. “I listen, I show up, and I fight for their values in Sacramento. That approach has earned trust across party lines, and I’ll continue earning it every day.”
Her colleague Greg Wallis, representing the 47th Assembly District, faces a similar challenge. Wallis’s district, which includes the San Gorgonio Pass and parts of Highland and Redlands, has a five-point Democratic registration edge. Wallis narrowly defeated Democrat Christy Holstege by 85 votes in 2022 but expanded his margin to over 5,000 votes in 2024. He remains pragmatic about the challenges ahead. “Given that Sacramento Democrats have spent millions against me each election, I’m sure they will do so again,” Wallis said. “The truth is that they and their special interest allies have basically unlimited funds. So, I assume they will keep trying to unseat me and (I will) focus my time and effort on doing the right thing for local people. That’s how I get re-elected—because I’ll work with anyone, regardless of their party, to get things done.”
Democrats Jason Byors, Lucas Pinon, and Leila Namvar have declared their intentions to challenge Wallis in 2026, while Castillo faces rematches from both Clarissa Cervantes, who previously lost amid controversy, and newcomer Paco Licea. California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks underscored the party’s commitment to these races, stating, “We continue to invest early and often in competitive seats with year-round, on-the-ground organizing.”
Latino voters, whose shift toward Trump in 2024 helped deliver narrow GOP victories in Riverside and San Bernardino counties, are now reportedly souring on him, a trend that could have major implications in the majority-Latino Inland Empire. With the Democratic Party’s early investments and a changing political environment, the 2026 midterms are shaping up to be a defining moment for state legislatures across the country.
With control of key statehouses hanging in the balance, both parties are gearing up for a bruising fight—one that will test their messages, their organizing power, and their ability to connect with voters on the issues that matter most.
