Last week, east-central Mexico was battered by torrential rains that unleashed deadly floods and landslides, leaving at least 76 people dead and dozens more missing. The devastation has not only overwhelmed communities but also reignited urgent debate over the Mexican government’s ability to warn citizens about severe weather in time to save lives.
According to a report from the Associated Press, the days of relentless downpours set off river flooding and landslides across the region, with hard-hit cities like Poza Rica suffering the brunt of the disaster. Residents there described scenes of chaos and fear, with many saying they had never witnessed anything like it before. One survivor recounted how, “We’re being more and more affected by these phenomena and we can’t go on like this, failing by not knowing what to do and not having … adequate warning.” The quote, from Christian Domínguez, a researcher at the Atmosphere and Climate Change Institute at Mexico’s National Autonomous University, captures the growing frustration and anxiety felt by many Mexicans as extreme weather events become both more frequent and more severe.
For days, authorities described the rainfall as unpredictable. Yet, as Domínguez and other experts have pointed out, what was once considered unusual weather is rapidly becoming the norm, a transformation driven by the accelerating effects of climate change. “The first thing we have to do is recognize that there is a change … the atypical is now the most typical,” said Carlos Valdés, former head of Mexico’s National Disaster Prevention Center, in remarks reported by ABC and other outlets.
Despite the scientific consensus about the rising risks, the government’s ability to respond has come under scrutiny. President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has been in office for the past year and is herself a trained scientist with a background in climate change, expressed this week a willingness to review prevention protocols. However, she stopped short of explicitly addressing the role of climate change in the disaster, instead emphasizing the impossibility of predicting precisely how much rain would fall in specific locations. This omission has raised eyebrows among researchers and the public alike, especially given the mounting evidence that climate-driven weather extremes are here to stay.
Technological gaps have further hampered Mexico’s ability to forecast and respond to such disasters. Domínguez noted that the country lacks critical instrumentation, such as real-time river level measurements and an adequate network of weather radars, which would allow meteorologists to make more accurate and timely forecasts. “Even with the existing forecasts there could be much better prevention strategies if officials think not only of preparing for hurricanes, but also the possibility that the confluence of various weather systems, as occurred last week, has the potential to create a dangerous situation,” she explained.
The events in Veracruz state illustrate the consequences of these shortcomings. The day before the region’s main rivers overflowed, forecasts predicted nearly 8 inches (20 centimeters) of rain—a serious warning by any measure. Yet the actual rainfall ended up being three times that amount. In Poza Rica, the hardest-hit city, many residents only began to flee their homes when the floodwaters were already rising around them. Some said authorities warned them too late, while others admitted they simply did not believe things would get so bad. The communication gap proved deadly.
Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, told the Associated Press that climate change is causing severe weather to strike outside of traditional seasons and in places not typically associated with such risks. “A severe weather event can develop anywhere when the ingredients come together,” he said, underscoring the new reality facing not just Mexico but countries around the world.
Mexico’s civil defense system does have risk maps and officials tasked with issuing alerts. But as Domínguez pointed out, public understanding of these warnings is often limited. “Beyond alerting, the people have to also understand what is being said,” she said. The challenge is not unique to Mexico. In the United States, a flash flood in Texas earlier this year killed at least 136 people, despite the country’s advanced technology and resources.
The need for better education and training is clear. In the aftermath of Hurricane Otis, which devastated Acapulco in late 2023, a woman in a shattered neighborhood recalled hearing that a Category 5 hurricane was coming—but she had no idea that meant all the houses would be destroyed. Experts say that both civil defense officials and the general public must be better equipped to interpret and act on severe weather warnings.
There have been some signs of progress. With memories of Otis still fresh, President Sheinbaum has pledged to focus more on prevention, particularly in relation to hurricanes and heavy rains. In the immediate aftermath of last week’s disaster, thousands of soldiers and officials were deployed to reopen roads and repair bridges washed out by the floods in Veracruz. Meanwhile, in neighboring Tamaulipas state, officials monitoring the Panuco River issued clearer flood warnings on October 16 after the river rose nearly a foot (30 centimeters). By the following day, nearly 500 people had moved into shelters, and local mayors were kept informed in time, according to Sheinbaum.
Yet, as the river continued to rise even on October 18, the sense of vulnerability lingered. “When authorities’ actions are good, nothing happens,” said Valdés, highlighting the paradox that effective prevention often goes unnoticed—until it fails.
The scale of the disaster is sobering. At least 76 people are confirmed dead, with dozens still unaccounted for. The recovery effort is ongoing, with soldiers and emergency workers laboring to restore basic infrastructure and provide aid to those displaced. But the broader lesson is hard to miss: climate change is making extreme weather more common and more dangerous, and both governments and societies must adapt quickly or face mounting losses.
Looking ahead, experts argue that Mexico—and indeed all countries—must invest not just in better technology but also in public education and transparent communication. As Domínguez put it, “We’re being more and more affected by these phenomena and we can’t go on like this.” The future may be uncertain, but the need for change is crystal clear.