The National Tennis Center in Beijing is buzzing with anticipation as Alex de Minaur and Jakub Mensik prepare to clash in the quarterfinals of the 2025 China Open. Scheduled for Monday, September 29, at 1:00 pm local time on the CAPITAL GROUP DIAMOND court, this ATP 500 showdown promises to be a compelling battle between two players on markedly different but equally intriguing trajectories.
For Alex de Minaur, the 26-year-old Australian and current world No. 8, 2025 has been a season of both consolidation and fresh highs. His journey to the Beijing quarterfinals included a clinical straight-sets win over wild card Bu Yunchaokete (6-4, 6-0) followed by a gritty three-set victory against Arthur Rinderknech (6-3, 3-6, 7-6[2]). These results have only reinforced his status as one of the tour’s most reliable competitors. De Minaur’s year has been punctuated by a title run in Washington, a runner-up finish at Rotterdam’s ABN AMRO Open, and deep campaigns at some of the sport’s most prestigious events, including Melbourne, Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Toronto, and the US Open.
His consistency is reflected in his 46-17 win-loss record for 2025, and he’s now amassed 10 career titles—eight on hard courts and two on grass. Notably, his defensive prowess and relentless court coverage have become his calling cards, as highlighted by his ATP stats: 1,662 career aces, 1,118 double faults, a 58% first serve percentage, 71% of first serve points won, and a 54% success rate on second serves. Across his career, he’s managed to win about 80% of his service games and save 61% of break points faced. In 2025 alone, he’s fired 218 aces and converted 45% of 456 break point opportunities, according to ATP statistics.
Jakub Mensik, on the other hand, arrives as the tournament’s seventh seed and world No. 19. At just 20 years old, Mensik’s breakout season has been one of the year’s most compelling narratives. With a 34-20 record in 2025, the Czech has stormed onto the scene, highlighted by his sensational title run at the Miami Open—his first Masters 1000 crown—where he stunned Novak Djokovic in the final with a pair of tiebreaks (7-6, 7-6). That Miami triumph propelled him up the rankings and confirmed his status as one of the brightest young talents on tour.
Mensik’s path to the Beijing quarterfinals has been anything but straightforward. He dispatched Miomir Kecmanovic 7-5, 6-4 before surviving a tense three-set test against Arthur Cazaux (6-3, 2-6, 6-4). His serve has been a major weapon all season, racking up 608 aces—an average of 14 per match in 2025. Statistically, Mensik boasts a 53% first serve percentage, wins 76% of first serve points, and claims 49% on his second serve. His career service games won stands at about 82%, with an impressive 86% for the current season. While his first serve can be devastating, the second serve remains an area opponents look to exploit.
The head-to-head between de Minaur and Mensik tilts heavily in the Aussie’s favor. They’ve met three times previously, all within the last year: Vienna 2024 (quarterfinals, de Minaur won 6-7[2], 6-3, 6-4), Rotterdam 2025 (round of 16, de Minaur won 6-4, 6-4), and most recently at the Laver Cup 2025 (de Minaur won 6-3, 6-4). Each time, de Minaur’s blend of defensive grit and tactical nous has managed to blunt Mensik’s raw power.
Bookmakers and predictive models alike are leaning toward de Minaur. According to BetMGM, de Minaur is a 21/50 favorite (moneyline odds -235 to -250 across various outlets), while Mensik sits as the underdog at +180 to +235. Dimers’ advanced tennis model gives de Minaur a 65% chance of victory, reinforcing the consensus that the Australian’s experience and consistency make him the man to beat. Still, Mensik’s explosive game and his ability to thrive on big stages—already a Masters champion at 20—mean he can never be counted out.
“Got there in the end,” Tennis TV quipped after de Minaur’s most recent win over Mensik, a nod to the Aussie’s ability to outlast his younger rival. Mensik’s own rise has not gone unnoticed, with his Miami title run and quarterfinal appearances in Brisbane, Auckland, Madrid, and Eastbourne, as well as a semifinal in Cap Cana, marking him as a player who relishes the spotlight. His 2025 record on hard courts stands at 18-10, showing both his promise and areas for further growth.
Statistically, the contrast between the two players is stark. De Minaur’s game is built on defense, consistency, and the ability to turn defense into offense, often pushing opponents into errors with his relentless retrieving. Mensik, by contrast, is all about aggression—his serve is his biggest weapon, and when it’s firing, he can rack up cheap points in a hurry. In 2025, de Minaur has won 97 sets and lost 44, while Mensik has won 73 and lost 44, underlining the Aussie’s edge in match rhythm and stamina.
Betting lines also reflect expectations for a close contest. The game spread sits at +3.5 for de Minaur (-122) and -3.5 for Mensik (-110), with the over/under for total games set at 22.5—suggesting that bookmakers expect at least a competitive encounter, if not a three-set thriller. The implied odds for winning the tournament are +800 for de Minaur and +2500 for Mensik, further highlighting the Australian’s perceived edge.
As for viewing, fans can catch the action live via tennistv.com (subscription required), bet365 (with a funded account), Iqiyi in China, beIN Sports in Australia, and Digisport in the Czech Republic. The match is also available on international outlets like Tennis Channel, TVA, TSN, and ESPN International, ensuring global coverage for this marquee quarterfinal.
So, what should fans expect? De Minaur’s ability to absorb Mensik’s pace and extend rallies could once again prove decisive, but Mensik’s fearless approach and ability to seize the moment mean an upset can’t be discounted. “Alex de Minaur. What in the name of the Tennis Gods was that. Defense out of this WORLD,” exclaimed The Tennis Letter after one of de Minaur’s recent defensive masterclasses. It’s exactly this blend of grit and guile that has propelled him to the upper echelons of the sport.
With both players in strong form and plenty at stake, Monday’s quarterfinal in Beijing is shaping up to be a must-watch affair. Whether it’s de Minaur’s consistency or Mensik’s firepower that prevails, tennis fans are in for a treat as these two stars battle for a coveted semifinal spot in the Chinese capital.
As the match approaches, the only certainty is that the action will be fierce, the rallies long, and the stakes sky-high. Stay tuned as Beijing’s hard courts play host to another memorable chapter in the burgeoning rivalry between Alex de Minaur and Jakub Mensik.
