Monday night at PNC Park in Pittsburgh saw the Chicago Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates square off in a game that carried plenty of intrigue, not just for diehard fans but also for those with an eye on the MLB’s playoff picture and betting markets. With the Cubs (85-64) clinging to the top wild card spot and the Pirates (65-85) playing out the string, the stakes were clear for both clubs—albeit for very different reasons.
Jameson Taillon, the Cubs’ right-hander, took the mound with momentum on his side. Entering his 21st start of the season, Taillon sported a 9-6 record, a 4.15 ERA, and 83 strikeouts across 110.2 innings. He was eyeing his 10th win—a nice milestone for any pitcher, but especially sweet for one who’d battled through injury earlier in the year. His recent form has been impressive: since returning from injury in August, Taillon has posted a 2.35 ERA over three starts and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last eleven outings. Talk about a timely resurgence for a team with October ambitions!
“Taillon has looked good after returning from an injury in August. He has a 2.35 ERA over 3 starts since re-joining the rotation. He’s also now allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 9 of his last 11 starts,” noted one MLB analyst, underscoring Taillon’s recent consistency.
On the other side, the Pirates countered with Braxton Ashcraft, a promising young righty making only his seventh start of the season. Ashcraft has been a bit of a revelation for Pittsburgh, boasting a 4-2 record with a sparkling 2.47 ERA across 23 appearances (six starts). His strikeout rate sits at 8.6 per nine innings, and he’s shown poise beyond his years. However, advanced metrics like his 3.54 xERA and 3.64 xFIP suggest that some regression could be lurking around the corner. To make matters trickier for the Pirates, Ashcraft’s workload is being carefully managed, and he’s averaged just 2.5 innings per appearance in his starts, rarely going deep into games.
“Ashcraft’s innings will likely be limited today as the Pirates monitor his workload. That would leave a shaky bullpen to cover the majority of the game, which is good news for the Cubs,” observed a betting expert, highlighting the strategic chess match that could unfold as the game progressed.
The Pirates, meanwhile, have been mired in a brutal offensive slump, averaging just 2.6 runs per game over a 1-9 stretch leading up to Monday’s contest. Their struggles have been particularly acute against right-handed pitching, managing a meager .252 wOBA and a 56 wRC+ over the past two weeks—numbers that rank them near the bottom of the league. That’s a tough recipe when facing a rejuvenated Taillon and a Cubs team with playoff aspirations.
For Chicago, the matchup looked favorable on paper. The Cubs have been performing well against righties this month, posting a .321 wOBA and a 109 wRC+. That’s not just good—it’s above average and a sign that the lineup is clicking at the right time. And let’s not forget, Taillon tossed 6.1 innings of two-run ball against the Pirates earlier in the season, further bolstering the Cubs’ confidence heading into this series opener.
“The Cubs present a challenge with above-average numbers vs. righties this month (.321 wOBA, 109 wRC+),” according to MLB analysts, who expect Chicago’s offense to keep the pressure on Ashcraft and the Pittsburgh bullpen.
Betting markets and predictive models reflected this edge. According to Dimers’ advanced MLB model, the Cubs were given a 52% chance to win Monday’s game, with the Pirates holding a 61% chance to cover the run line (+1.5). The over/under total of 8 runs had a 53% chance of going over, making it a tempting play for those seeking action beyond the moneyline. The Cubs entered as -118 favorites, with the Pirates at +102—a nod to Chicago’s recent form and the Pirates’ struggles.
“Our leading predictive model gives the Cubs a 52% chance of beating the Pirates,” reported Dimers, with the run line and total runs offering additional intrigue for bettors.
Taillon’s ability to limit damage has been a big part of his value. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 11 starts, including one against Pittsburgh. In fact, expert picks honed in on Taillon’s recent run, with many expecting him to allow under 2.5 earned runs—a trend he’s established even while bridging some injury layoffs. The Cubs’ right-hander has also registered 11 quality starts this season, and in all 20 of his outings, he’s surrendered at least one earned run, but rarely more than two or three.
On the flip side, Ashcraft has completed five or more innings in just three of his six starts, and none of his outings have qualified as a quality start. Out of his 23 total appearances, he’s managed to finish 12 without allowing an earned run, but his short leash means the Pirates’ bullpen often needs to cover significant innings—never ideal, especially with a pen that’s posted a 4.21 ERA and 4.40 FIP over the past two weeks.
For the Cubs, every game down the stretch matters. Locked into the first NL Wild Card spot and still holding a slim chance at the NL Central crown, Chicago can’t afford to slip up against a struggling Pirates squad. The Pirates, for their part, are looking for bright spots as they develop young talent and eye the future. Ashcraft’s emergence, even with some expected regression, is one such positive.
As the game got underway at 6:40 p.m. ET, fans in Pittsburgh and Chicago alike tuned in to see if Taillon could secure his 10th win and keep the Cubs on their playoff path, or if the Pirates could play spoiler and snap out of their offensive funk. With both teams’ starters bringing intriguing storylines—Taillon’s comeback and Ashcraft’s breakout—the matchup provided plenty of drama for a Monday night in September.
With the action ongoing, the outcome remains up in the air, but one thing’s for certain: as the playoff race heats up, every pitch and every at-bat is magnified. The Cubs and Pirates are giving fans plenty to talk about as the regular season enters its final weeks.
