Costco Wholesale is starting 2026 with a bang, defying recent doubts and proving its membership-driven retail model remains a force to be reckoned with. On January 8, 2026, the company announced that its net sales for December soared to $29.9 billion, marking an impressive 8.5% increase from December of the previous year, as reported by TipRanks. This robust performance sent Costco shares rallying in Thursday morning trading, providing a much-needed boost after a rocky 2025 that saw the stock fall by 5% amid concerns about slowing growth and broader market volatility.
The December sales report was more than just a positive headline—it was seen by many investors as a pivotal moment that could reverse the cautious sentiment that had lingered over the stock. According to Dow Jones, this strong monthly data was widely discussed as the potential spark for the stock recovery investors had been hoping for. Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe echoed this optimism, highlighting the results as a testament to the durability of Costco's membership model, which has long set the company apart from its retail peers.
Digging into the numbers, the details are hard to ignore. JP Morgan analyst Christopher Horvers, as cited by Benzinga, reiterated his Overweight rating on Costco and set a bullish price forecast of $1,000. Horvers pointed out that U.S. core comparable sales rose 6.3% in December—well above both consensus and internal expectations. U.S. traffic increased by 2.4%, while total enterprise traffic ticked up by 2.7% year over year. Even more impressively, the average ticket climbed 3.4% when excluding gas price deflation and foreign exchange impacts. Comparable sales excluding gas and currency effects hit 6.9%, reflecting the underlying strength of demand.
International performance was equally strong. Canada posted a 6.0% core comparable sales gain, matching expectations, while other international regions modestly outperformed forecasts. The Midwest, Northwest, and Southeast led U.S. regional performance, while Australia, Japan, and Korea were the standouts abroad. Not everything was rosy—weather did dampen demand in the U.S. Northeast—but overall, the momentum was undeniable. Horvers also noted that store cannibalization pressures eased, dropping to 50 basis points from 60 previously, and that Executive member sign-ups jumped to 80,000 per week, up from 70,000 the prior quarter. This surge in premium memberships contributed to a roughly 5% increase in membership fee income for the quarter.
UBS, as reported by Investing.com, maintained its Buy rating and set a $1,205 price target on Costco, citing the retailer's strong December comparable sales as a key driver. The firm highlighted that Costco's two-year stacked comparable sales growth exceeded 16%, demonstrating remarkable consistency despite tougher year-over-year comparisons. The company’s revenue grew 8.34% over the past twelve months, with December’s $29.86 billion in sales up from $27.52 billion a year earlier. For the first 18 weeks of its fiscal year, Costco’s sales totaled $101.83 billion, an 8.3% increase over the previous year.
Wall Street’s enthusiasm wasn’t unanimous, however. While Jefferies held its Buy rating and a $1,050 price target, DA Davidson maintained a Neutral rating with a $1,000 target, noting 7.0% comparable sales growth in December. Telsey Advisory Group kept its Outperform rating and a $1,100 price target, though it forecasted a more modest 2.2% comparable sales increase for the month. Guggenheim also maintained a Neutral stance, voicing concerns about softening metrics and the all-important membership renewal rates, which are a linchpin of Costco’s recurring revenue model.
Membership fees are no small matter for Costco. As Horvers explained, they generate roughly half of the company’s operating profit, giving Costco significant pricing power and margin flexibility. The recurring revenue from high renewal rates remains a core pillar of the business, supporting the company’s ability to weather economic headwinds and competitive threats.
Digital sales were another bright spot. TipRanks reported that Costco’s online sales skyrocketed by nearly 19% in December, underscoring the company’s growing digital prowess even as shoppers returned to physical stores. This digital surge was driven in part by high-income consumers seeking value on big-ticket items and appliances, a trend that speaks to the brand’s broadening appeal. The company’s efforts to expand e-commerce profitability and boost advertising revenue are also expected to support margin expansion going forward.
The broad-based nature of Costco’s growth was perhaps the most impressive takeaway from the December report. Sales gains were seen across all regions, with some international markets posting increases of more than 10%. This global reach, combined with the company’s focus on staples—consumables make up about 70% of its product mix—has allowed Costco to capture market share from rivals even as economic conditions remain uncertain. As more households feel the pinch of high prices, bulk buying at Costco has become an increasingly attractive way to save on essentials like meat and groceries.
Despite the celebration, challenges remain. The company faced a dip in membership renewal rates and ongoing concerns about new trade tariffs. Yet, the positive December report is being viewed as a potential turning point that could lead to further rewards for shareholders—some experts even speculate about a special dividend payout if momentum continues through the spring. According to TipRanks, the stock now boasts a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 17 Buys, five Holds, and one Sell in the past three months, with an average price target of $1,046.69—implying a 19.3% upside potential from recent levels.
As of Thursday, Costco shares were up 5.05% at $927.11, according to Benzinga Pro data, and trading at $927.87, according to Investing.com. With a market capitalization of $412.5 billion, the retail giant is, for now, trading above its estimated fair value. Whether the current momentum can be sustained will depend on continued execution, consumer sentiment, and the company’s ability to keep its membership base loyal and growing.
For now, Costco’s December surge has quieted many doubters and reaffirmed its standing as a retail powerhouse with a model that seems built to last, even in turbulent times.