As the dust settles on the 30th Conference of Parties (COP30) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, held in Belém, Brazil from November 10 to 22, 2025, the world is left to ponder a summit marked by both progress and palpable frustration. The Amazonian city played host to over 42,000 delegates, activists, and support staff, but the gathering’s outcomes have sparked debate over whether the climate movement is gaining momentum or losing its way.
According to Climate Home News, total attendance at COP30 reached 42,618—making it the fourth-highest in COP history. Yet, only 7,527 attendees wore official government “party badges,” the lowest number of government representatives since 2014 and roughly half the number seen at last year’s COP29 in Baku. The drop was attributed to a shortage of affordable, officially-sanctioned accommodation in Belém, with hotel prices soaring to $240 a night and limited availability forcing delegates to seek rooms on cruise ships or through government-capped allocations. The U.S. sent no official delegation at all, a move that did not go unnoticed among negotiators and observers alike.
Despite logistical hurdles, the conference’s agenda was ambitious. The centerpiece was the unveiling of the Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T, a plan co-authored by Brazil and Azerbaijan and published on November 5. The roadmap calls for mobilizing $1.3 trillion annually for climate action in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) by 2035, with at least $300 billion expected from public sources. The thrust of the strategy, as reported by the Bretton Woods Observer, leaned heavily on leveraging private finance through multilateral development banks (MDBs) using instruments like guarantees, junior equity, and securitization platforms.
MDBs, for their part, reaffirmed their commitment to climate finance. In a joint statement on November 11, they noted that in 2024 they had provided $85 billion in climate finance to LMICs and mobilized a further $33 billion in private capital. This puts them on pace to reach their goal of $120 billion from MDBs’ own accounts and $65 billion in private capital mobilization to LMICs by 2030. Additionally, MDBs claimed to have provided $26 billion in adaptation finance in 2024, indicating their central role in meeting the new adaptation finance goals agreed at COP30.
However, not everyone was convinced that MDB-led private finance would deliver climate justice. Civil society groups and unions voiced deep skepticism. The Big Shift Global coalition argued, “Global North countries can’t hide behind MDBs to evade their responsibility to pay their fair share on fair terms for climate action.” Over 100 trade unions from the Global South, representing tens of millions of workers, issued a statement at COP30 rejecting the World Bank’s “billions to trillions” approach, saying, “There needs to be a clean break with the policy of ‘blended finance’ and ‘de-risking’. The World Bank’s ‘billions to trillions’ idea that public money would ‘catalyse’ large amounts of private sector finance has been an unqualified failure, and must be clearly rejected.”
Amid these tensions, there were moments of genuine progress. The summit saw the creation of the Belém Action Mechanism (BAM), a UNFCCC-based Just Transition Work Programme designed to support just transitions around the world. Climate Action Network International called the BAM “the major achievement of COP30 and for workers and communities across the world.” On November 21, 24 countries led by Colombia and the Netherlands announced plans for the first-ever international conference on a just transition away from fossil fuels, scheduled for April 2026 in Colombia. This event aims to tackle the fiscal, social, and macroeconomic challenges of moving beyond fossil fuels.
Yet, the final communique from COP30 was widely seen as disappointing. As reflected by World Gold Council and other observers, ambitious language around a fossil fuel phase-out was watered down to compromise, and hoped-for roadmaps to end deforestation were omitted from the final agreement. The UNEP 2025 Emissions Gap Report’s warning that the world is on track for 2.3-2.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels by mid-century loomed large over the negotiations, highlighting the urgency of more decisive action.
Brazil, as the host nation, sought to inject new life into nature-based solutions with the launch of the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) at the leaders’ summit on November 6. The World Bank will serve as interim host and trustee of this fund, which aims to raise $25 billion from governments and philanthropies and $100 billion from private investors to create a sovereign wealth fund for forests. However, the TFFF debuted with just $5.59 billion in pledges, far short of its ambitious target. Critics, such as the Rainforest Action Alliance, warned, “Without strong regulation to stop the flow of finance to destructive industries, the TFFF risks becoming yet another well-meaning mechanism trapped in a broken system.”
The conference also saw the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD)—first agreed at COP26—open a call for funding requests on November 10, with only $250 million available so far. Civil society groups, including the Loss and Damage Collaboration, have called for a stepwise increase in funding to at least $400 billion annually by 2030, underscoring the vast gap between what’s needed and what’s currently on offer. As Brandon Wu of ActionAid USA put it, the current funding is “a drop in the bucket compared to the trillions needed.”
One of the more striking aspects of COP30 was the prominence of Indigenous voices and local activists. As noted by the World Gold Council, Indigenous leaders were not relegated to the sidelines but played a central role in discussions, emphasizing that climate justice cannot be separated from land rights and cultural survival. Protests were colorful and peaceful, a testament to Brazil’s vibrant democracy and the passion of its civil society.
The gold industry also found itself in the spotlight. Mining and metals are increasingly recognized as critical to the energy transition, but the sector’s legacy in Brazil is complicated by the destructive impacts of unregulated artisanal gold mining. A multi-stakeholder roundtable in São Paulo before COP30 addressed these challenges, while discussions during the summit explored how responsible gold mining could contribute to local energy transition and ecosystem welfare. Nature-based solutions and the socio-economic value of healthy ecosystems gained significant traction, with initiatives like the TFFF offering new models for forest protection.
Looking ahead, the next COP will take place in Antalya, Turkey, in November 2026, where improved infrastructure and more abundant accommodation are expected to ease some of the logistical headaches that plagued Belém. Still, as the World Gold Council observed, “COP30 may not have delivered all we hoped for, but it reinforced one truth: the time for action is now.” The world will be watching to see if that call is finally heeded.
