Ten years after the landmark Paris Agreement, the world finds itself at a pivotal crossroads in the fight against climate change. December 12, 2025, marked a decade since global leaders first pledged to limit warming to 1.5°C and steer humanity away from fossil fuels. Yet, as the dust settles from last month’s COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, the mood is a curious mix of momentum and frustration, hope and impatience.
COP30, the 30th United Nations Conference of the Parties, was billed as a turning point—a moment when bold promises would finally give way to concrete action. Instead, the conference was marred by literal and figurative leaks. Torrential rain poured through the venue’s ceilings, and, according to MoneyWeek, the summit’s final resolution failed to mention fossil fuels at all. The United States, for the first time, boycotted the talks, while China attended but sidestepped any leadership role, leaving a gaping void in global climate diplomacy.
Despite the lackluster outcome at the highest levels, something remarkable was happening on the ground. As reported by 350.org, more than 70,000 people flooded the streets of Belém for the People’s March for Climate Justice. Over 200 boats transformed the Amazon River into a moving protest, and the city pulsed with creativity, music, and a palpable demand for climate justice. The summit saw one of the largest Indigenous delegations in COP history, with 3,000 representatives advocating for land rights and forest protection. Their efforts bore fruit: ten Indigenous territories were demarcated, marking a historic step forward.
Colombia, meanwhile, made headlines by declaring its entire Amazon a fossil-free zone—a monumental move for both Indigenous rights and the planet. The country also announced it would host the world’s first International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels in 2026, a forum that didn’t exist until climate movements and frontline communities demanded it. Brazil, the host nation, took its first official step toward developing a national roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, opening the door for communities to shape the country’s energy future.
Inside the UN’s so-called Blue Zone, civil society groups kept up the pressure with banner drops and creative demonstrations. Their rallying cry? "Communities want rivers, not pipelines—and a transition that serves people, not polluters." This groundswell of activism helped secure the inclusion of the Belém Action Mechanism (BAM) in the final COP30 text. BAM, as explained by 350.org, is a new UN framework designed to ensure the global shift away from fossil fuels is fair, protecting workers, Indigenous Peoples, and frontline communities. For the first time, the UN now recognizes that climate action must center fairness, decent jobs, and community protection alongside emissions targets.
Yet, for all these grassroots victories, the formal negotiations left many disappointed. COP30 adopted 59 global indicators to track progress toward the Global Goal on Adaptation and agreed on the next round of National Adaptation Plans. These bureaucratic scorecards reflect an important shift: adaptation and mitigation are now recognized as essential pillars of climate action, not just emissions cuts. National governments also committed to tripling adaptation finance by 2035, aiming for $120 billion a year. But, as MoneyWeek points out, the defining feature of COP30 was its failure to even mention fossil fuels in the final resolution, despite acknowledging—explicitly, for the first time—that the world is likely to overshoot the 1.5°C target set in Paris.
The numbers are sobering. The Global Carbon Project reported that global fossil-fuel emissions hit a record high in 2025, reaching roughly 39.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide—up 1.1% from 2024. China remains the largest emitter, responsible for 32% of the total, followed by the US at 13%, India at 8%, and EU nations at 6%. While emissions in the US are still climbing, they have plateaued in China, offering a glimmer of hope. However, the International Energy Agency projects that global coal demand will remain at record highs until at least 2027, with rising demand in China, India, and other developing nations offsetting declines elsewhere.
Crucially, this year marks a turning point in the energy sector. For the first time in history, the world is on track for zero growth in fossil fuel-generated electricity, not because demand is falling, but because renewables are meeting all new needs. According to Ember, a global energy think tank, solar energy grew by an astonishing 31% in 2025, with wind not far behind. Even China and India, traditionally the biggest fossil fuel consumers, saw fossil generation fall as record clean energy growth took hold. The International Energy Agency’s latest outlook shows that clean power is now cheaper, more reliable, and expanding fastest in emerging economies. The message is clear: the fossil fuel era has peaked, and the renewable era is accelerating.
Outside the formal COP process, real-world progress is happening at a breakneck pace. As MoneyWeek notes, electric car sales are surging in countries like Ethiopia and Nepal, while renewable energy booms from Ukraine to Pakistan. The Action Agenda at COP30—a non-negotiated process—saw businesses, investors, and city authorities announce $1 trillion in investment plans for clean energy and grid expansion by 2030. The Netherlands and Colombia jointly announced a non-COP international conference in 2026 to develop an equitable, science-based roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels.
Yet, the challenges remain daunting. The UN’s Emissions Gap report confirmed that the steady increase in carbon emissions since Paris means global temperatures will rise beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Recent years have seen temperatures surge past that mark, with 2023 and 2024 among the hottest on record. The 30-year rolling average—the benchmark used by the Paris Agreement—still sits just below at about 1.37°C. To keep even a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, the world must cut emissions by roughly 55% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. Current national plans fall woefully short, putting the world on track for about 2.5°C of warming.
So, has climate diplomacy failed? Not entirely. Simon Stiell, head of the UN’s Climate Framework, argues that without the COP process, the world would be heading for a catastrophic 5°C of warming, instead of the still-dangerous 2.5°C now projected. But the centre of gravity is shifting. Much of the most important progress is happening around the formal process—and often despite its limitations. Businesses, cities, and civil society are increasingly driving the transition, while the COP process faces calls to become simpler, more implementation-oriented, or risk irrelevance.
As 2025 draws to a close, the world stands at a threshold. The Paris Agreement’s vision is under threat, but momentum is building from below. The climate movement is shifting from promises to pressure, from pledges to protests, and from talk to tangible change. The next year—and the next decade—will determine whether that momentum can finally turn the page on the fossil fuel era.
