The world’s eyes turned to Belém, Brazil, in November and December 2025 as diplomats, scientists, advocates, and industry leaders gathered for COP30—the thirtieth annual United Nations Conference of Parties on climate change. Yet as the final gavel fell on December 8, the prevailing mood among participants and observers was one of disappointment, tempered only slightly by the knowledge that it could have been worse. According to numerous reports, including an analysis published shortly after the event, European Union negotiators managed to prevent the summit from ending in outright failure, but the overall sense was that the outcomes fell short of the moment’s urgency.
It’s a striking contrast to the optimism that greeted the Paris Agreement just a decade ago. Back then, the world celebrated a breakthrough in global climate cooperation—a moment when it seemed the international community might finally bend the curve of emissions. And to be fair, progress has been made since Paris: the worst-case scenarios for planetary warming now appear less likely, thanks to collective efforts and technological advances. Still, as the dust settles on COP30, the hard truth remains: shared interest in taming climate change isn’t enough to drive real, transformative progress through the United Nations process alone.
One of the clearest lessons emerging from COP30 is that major powers are indispensable in pushing negotiations forward. As highlighted by observers and echoed in post-summit commentary, the European Union has played a leading role in recent years, but it simply isn’t strong enough to carry the torch alone. When the EU has acted in concert with the United States, real momentum has followed. But this year, with the U.S. declining to send a delegate, that partnership was absent. China, meanwhile, has not stepped into a comparable leadership role, leaving a vacuum at the heart of the process. “If China decides to join with the EU, we could also see some big developments,” one analysis noted, “but so far, China hasn’t stepped into a leadership role.”
Complicating matters further are the oil-producing countries—primarily OPEC members—whose economic dependence on fossil fuels continues to act as a brake on ambitious emissions reductions. While there’s hope that these countries might become more flexible as they diversify their economies, oil remains a cornerstone of their wealth and influence. According to climate experts, pressure from economic superpowers has sometimes nudged these nations toward compromise, but with the U.S. on the sidelines and China hesitant, that leverage was notably diminished at COP30.
For developing nations, the stakes are existential. Many of the world’s poorest countries face the gravest risks from climate change and are calling for increased support and compensation from wealthier nations. However, developed countries have shown limited willingness to provide substantial aid without parallel commitments to serious emission reductions. At the same time, other major emitters like China and India have not positioned themselves as providers of such support, leaving a gap in global solidarity.
Given these dynamics, most analysts agree that the best the world can expect from the UN process in the near future is incremental progress—unless there’s a dramatic shift in leadership, particularly from China, or a renewed commitment from the United States. “Incremental progress is better than no progress, obviously,” one commentator observed, “but we’re going to have to look elsewhere for productive international action.”
This search for alternatives was visible in the efforts of organizations and individuals who attended COP30. Among them was the American Institute of Architects (AIA), which sent a delegation to Belém for the fifth consecutive year. Led by 2025 President Evelyn Lee, FAIA, and 2026 President Illya Azaroff, FAIA, AIA’s team focused on advocating for expanded resilience planning and a steadfast commitment to emissions reductions as the world races toward the 2030 deadline for key climate targets. During the conference’s second week, Lee presented AIA’s “2030 By the Numbers” report at the Buildings and Cooling Pavilion, emphasizing the critical role of the built environment in meeting climate goals.
“We’re here to ensure that the voices of architects and designers are part of the global conversation on climate,” Lee told attendees, according to AIA’s post-conference summary. The delegation’s presence underscored a broader shift in climate action—one that increasingly relies on professional organizations, subnational actors, and coalitions of the willing to drive change from the ground up, even as international negotiations stall.
For some participants, COP30 was also a moment of personal reflection and growth. Emma Brace, a Boston College engineering professor and Topeka High School alumna, attended the summit as part of her university’s delegation, bringing along several students. For Brace, the experience was both eye-opening and oddly familiar. “While I was there at COP, I was really stunned to see how realistic both Model UN and these mock negotiations we did were to the real thing,” she said in an interview with her hometown paper. “I feel like definitely me and I think a lot of people, we imagine UN diplomats and climate negotiators as these sort of really special people, but ultimately like they are just people.”
Brace’s journey—from Model UN student in Kansas to global climate negotiator—highlights the human side of these high-stakes talks. She credits her formative experiences, including a Girl Scout trip to Kansas State University and a high school biology class, with setting her on a path toward environmental engineering. “I think today’s students are very cognizant of the world that they’re inheriting and the way that it’s changing and want to learn about these topics,” she said, urging educators not to shy away from tough conversations about climate change. “If you work on things that you’re passionate about, find a job that you care about and you find meaningful, you can end up where you want to be and also end up with opportunities to make small impacts on the world.”
Indeed, as the limitations of the UN process become more apparent, many experts and advocates are calling for a broader approach to climate action. This means doubling down on bilateral agreements between countries, forming coalitions of interested states, and leveraging subnational entities like cities and provinces. It also involves using policy levers—such as disclosure requirements and carbon tariffs—to pressure countries and companies into action. Perhaps most importantly, it calls for accelerating the development and deployment of clean technologies that can shift incentives worldwide.
As one post-COP30 analysis put it, “This is not where we wanted to be, or where we expected to be a decade ago. But the story of climate action has been finding creative alternatives when we’ve run into roadblocks. No one ever said that fixing the planet was going to be easy.”
While the world waits for renewed leadership from the biggest economies, the work continues—often in less visible but no less important ways. From architects advocating for green buildings to educators inspiring the next generation of climate leaders, the fight against climate change is increasingly a mosaic of local, national, and international efforts. COP30 may not have delivered a breakthrough, but it’s clear that the search for solutions is far from over.
