On December 10, 2025, the world’s attention turned to the Amazonian city of Belém, Brazil, as delegates from 193 nations wrapped up COP30, the latest United Nations summit on climate change. The gathering, which drew more than 56,000 attendees, marked a pivotal moment in the ongoing global struggle to address climate change—not just with promises, but with action. Yet, as the dust settles, the legacy of COP30 is already being hotly debated, with both its achievements and shortcomings under the microscope.
According to a new report from global consultancy EY, COP30 signaled a shift in the climate conversation. Instead of focusing solely on setting ambitious goals for the distant future, this summit pushed the world’s financial institutions to the center of the green transition. The message was clear: without the mobilization of capital, neither adaptation nor mitigation efforts can succeed on the scale required. But as Gillian Lofts, EY’s Global Financial Services Sustainable Finance Leader, put it, "Delegates in Belém left with mixed views. Progress on adaptation finance and the creation of a just transition mechanism was welcomed, but the absence of a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels drew criticism and keeps the policy signal uneven."
One of the most notable aspects of the new climate deal signed at COP30 was what it left out: military emissions. As reported by Federica Persico and Anna Lisa Antonello for PRIF, the agreement did not address the carbon footprint of armed forces—a major omission, given the significant emissions generated by military operations worldwide. This gap has not gone unnoticed by environmental advocates, who argue that comprehensive climate action must include all major sources of greenhouse gases.
Still, the summit did produce tangible outcomes. More than 120 national transition plans were submitted, each outlining how individual countries intend to move toward lower-carbon economies. Despite this progress, the world remains on track to warm by a sobering 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius by the year 2100, according to EY’s analysis. This projection underscores the urgent need for both greater ambition and faster implementation.
Perhaps the most immediate challenge discussed in Belém was adaptation finance—funding that helps vulnerable communities, governments, and businesses build resilience against the impacts of climate change. This includes investments in flood-resistant infrastructure, drought-resilient agriculture, early warning systems, and disaster recovery insurance. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) estimates that developing nations face a staggering funding deficit for adaptation, ranging from $284 billion to $339 billion. In response, the Global Goal on Adaptation, adopted at COP30, aims to triple adaptation financing by 2035. To track progress, 59 global adaptation indicators were established during the summit, providing a framework for monitoring how well countries are meeting their commitments.
The Baku-to-Belém roadmap, released between COP29 and COP30, proposed a voluntary approach to meeting the $300 billion annual public finance goal set at the previous summit. Yet, as Lofts notes, "What changed, and what didn't, at COP30 for financial services?" The answer, it seems, is a mix of cautious optimism and lingering frustration. Leading financial firms are already experimenting with layered capital stacks and portfolio guarantees to de-risk climate projects, especially in emerging markets. These innovative financing mechanisms are seen as essential for unlocking private investment at the scale required.
Carbon markets also took center stage in Belém. Sixteen countries submitted plans for cross-border carbon credit transfers, and the summit approved the first emissions reduction methodology for landfill gas projects. Standards for project approvals and safeguards—such as insurance or buffer systems to manage reversal risk—were established, aiming to enhance transparency and consistency. EY’s analysis suggests that carbon markets could represent a trillion-dollar opportunity, with countries potentially saving up to $250 billion on their transition efforts by 2030 through the effective use of credits. Major financial institutions are already exploring ways to integrate carbon credits and nature-based solutions into products such as loans, funds, and derivatives, while insurers are developing solutions to address the risks inherent in carbon trading.
The role of nature in climate action was another theme that resonated throughout COP30. Brazil, as host, introduced the Tropical Forests Forever Facility—a platform designed to mobilize $125 billion for forest protection. This initiative, endorsed by 53 countries, reflects growing recognition that safeguarding the world’s forests is not just an environmental imperative, but a financial one as well. The summit also saw a push for greater transparency in nature-related disclosures. The International Sustainability Standards Board announced plans to develop a global disclosure standard by 2026, building on the Taskforce for Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) framework. However, EY’s Global Nature Action Barometer 2025 found that while 93% of companies mention nature in their reporting, only 23% of financial sector firms currently align with TNFD recommendations—a gap that will need to close if the sector is to play its full part in the transition.
For the first time, a COP outcome integrated the concept of a ‘just transition’ into the UN framework, through the Belém Action Mechanism. This voluntary platform is intended to support communities affected by the phase-down of fossil fuels, ensuring that the move toward a greener economy does not leave the most vulnerable behind. Yet, the numbers paint a stark picture: only about $16 billion, or just 3% of global climate finance, is currently directed toward these needs. The hope is that the new framework will help channel more resources to workers and communities on the front lines of economic change.
As Lofts concludes in the EY report, "It highlights where financial services can credibly support delivery now—such as the mobilisation of capital for resilience, strengthening high-integrity market infrastructure under Article 6, and preparing for nature-related disclosures—and where a disciplined approach is needed while policy signals remain uncertain." She adds, "If you're shaping near‑term decisions in capital allocation, underwriting, product design or disclosures, I hope this guide helps focus on what's actionable."
Despite the positive steps, the absence of a clear roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels left many delegates and observers dissatisfied. Critics argue that without stronger policy signals and firmer commitments, the uneven progress seen so far may persist. The exclusion of military emissions from the deal, as highlighted by Persico and Antonello, only adds to concerns that some of the world’s largest polluters are being let off the hook.
Looking ahead, the challenge for the global community is not just to maintain momentum, but to accelerate it. COP30 has laid important groundwork—especially in areas like adaptation finance, carbon markets, and nature protection—but the path to a stable climate remains long and uncertain. As the world digests the outcomes from Belém, one thing is clear: the era of climate action by half-measures is quickly coming to an end.
