Twenty-four million Americans are bracing for a dramatic increase in their health insurance premiums as the clock runs out on enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, a crisis that has thrown Congress into yet another high-stakes standoff. With the temporary tax credits—expanded during the COVID-19 pandemic—set to expire at the end of 2025, both parties are scrambling, but the odds of a bipartisan fix seem slimmer by the day.
According to Roll Call, these subsidies have been a lifeline for self-employed workers, small business employees, and their families—essentially anyone buying insurance on the ACA exchanges. The expiration means many could see their premiums jump by hundreds, even thousands, of dollars per year. The looming sticker shock has been widely anticipated, with industry experts warning of the consequences for months, but Congress has been slow to act.
The political drama began in earnest when Democrats, shut out of the legislative process by President Donald Trump and Republican majorities in both chambers, demanded an extension of the enhanced tax credits. Their refusal to back down led to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, only ending when eight moderate Democratic senators broke ranks and voted with Republicans to reopen the government. In exchange, GOP leaders promised a vote on the premium subsidies by mid-December.
Yet, as CBS News reports, the specifics of what would actually be voted on remained frustratingly vague. The outlines of a bipartisan compromise have been clear for months: extend most of the subsidies for at least two years, phase them out for households earning above 400 percent of the poverty line, require all households to pay at least a token amount toward their premiums, and commission a blue-ribbon panel to recommend ways to rein in soaring healthcare costs. This plan, at least in theory, would let both parties claim a win and offer relief to millions of Americans.
But the reality of Washington partisanship has made even this common-sense solution elusive. With the Senate set to vote on the Democratic proposal—a clean three-year extension of the enhanced tax credits—this Thursday, December 11, 2025, the outcome is all but predetermined. The measure, while allowing Democrats to fulfill their promise, is expected to fail in the GOP-controlled chamber. Republicans have made it clear they won’t support an extension without significant reforms to the ACA subsidies, including new income limits and requirements to root out waste, fraud, and abuse. Some have floated ideas like redirecting funds into health savings accounts, but the party has yet to rally around a single alternative.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune summed up the prevailing Republican view in comments to CNN: “We’re going to have a conversation tomorrow with our members and kind of decide the path forward. We could—we have some good options. But this, to me, is on the Democrats’ part, is a messaging exercise, political messaging exercise. I don’t think they’re serious about wanting to do a deal yet.”
Other Republicans, like Sen. Tommy Tuberville, are sounding the alarm that the party could face a political backlash if it fails to produce a viable plan. “It very well could be, if we don’t come up with something that lets the American people know that we’re trying to fix this, and we are,” Tuberville told CNN. Still, the GOP remains divided, with some members open to letting the subsidies sunset, while others warn that doing so could hurt the party’s prospects in the upcoming midterms.
Meanwhile, Democrats are pushing ahead with their extension bill, fully aware it is likely to fail. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has made the expiring subsidies a centerpiece of his criticism of Republicans. “Thirteen votes could solve the problem. That’s where the onus should be,” Schumer said last week, according to CBS News. “They can just vote for this, plain and simple.”
But Republicans have been adamant that any extension must come with new restrictions, particularly around abortion coverage. The Hyde amendment, which bars federal funding for abortions, remains a sticking point. Anti-abortion activists have threatened to target any Republican who supports an extension without additional language ensuring that no insurance policies—whether sold on or off the exchanges—cover abortion procedures. For Democrats, this is a nonstarter, making a bipartisan solution even more difficult.
Some moderate senators from both parties have tried to broker a compromise. Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) recently unveiled a bill that would extend subsidies for two years while adding the income caps and mandated premiums Republicans have demanded. Yet, as CNN notes, this proposal is also unlikely to get a vote this week, as GOP leaders remain focused on presenting a united front and avoiding internal divisions.
House Republicans, led by Speaker Mike Johnson, have promised to introduce their own health care proposal and hold a vote by the end of the year. “We’ve been saying from the very beginning, we’re going to address this before the end of the year,” Johnson told reporters. “There will be big developments early next week, and we’re right on track.” However, he offered few specifics about what the legislation would actually include, leaving many to wonder if the House will be able to deliver a solution any more quickly than the Senate.
Underlying all of this is a broader dysfunction in Congress. As Steven Pearlstein, director of the Fixing Congress Initiative at the University of Pennsylvania, wrote in Roll Call, “One of the problems with having a Congress that accomplishes so little is that any issue that does manage to bubble to the surface is invested with so much imagined significance that anything less than total victory is viewed by both parties as a crushing defeat from which they, and the country, will never recover.”
He points out that the committees with jurisdiction over health care—those best positioned to craft a workable solution—have been sidelined by party leaders more interested in avoiding internal fights than reaching across the aisle. The result is a legislative process dominated by brinkmanship and political posturing, with little incentive to compromise.
For now, the fate of the ACA subsidies—and the financial well-being of millions of Americans—rests in the hands of a deeply divided Congress. With just weeks before higher premiums kick in, the possibility of a last-minute deal grows slimmer. The debate has become less about policy and more about political leverage, with each side maneuvering to avoid blame for the impending crisis.
While only 6 percent of the population is directly affected, the standoff has become a symbol of Washington’s inability to solve even straightforward problems. As party leaders dig in, the prospects for a bipartisan solution fade, leaving Americans to wonder if Congress can ever break free from its cycle of gridlock and deliver on its most basic responsibilities.
