As Christmas approaches, the world is watching Miami, where negotiators representing Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and key European partners have gathered in a last-ditch push to broker peace in a war that has upended Europe and sent global markets into a tailspin. While hopes flicker for a breakthrough, the reality on the ground and in the boardrooms of Europe remains as complex and fraught as ever.
On December 24, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump stood at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida and told reporters, "I will do everything possible to achieve a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine before Christmas." According to Caliber.Az, Trump added, "The talks are going along, and they say there's tremendous hatred between these two leaders. Between President [Vladimir] Putin and President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy — enormous hatred." Yet, he insisted that negotiations were making progress, even as he acknowledged the deep animosity at the heart of the conflict.
The latest round of talks, held in Miami from December 19 to 21, brought together Ukrainian, American, European, and Russian envoys. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff characterized the meetings as "productive and constructive," though he admitted that key issues—security guarantees for Ukraine and the fate of occupied territories—remain stubbornly unresolved. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy echoed that sentiment, saying the discussions were "approaching a concrete result based on a revised 20-point framework," but he conceded that "significant disagreements persist." The Kremlin, for its part, warned against seeing the Miami talks as a breakthrough, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov describing the process as "working" rather than transformative.
Markets, however, have been anything but patient. Throughout 2025, the so-called Ukraine "peace trade" has delivered stellar returns, with assets like Polish bank stocks, the Czech koruna, and Ukrainian debt rallying on even the faintest whiff of a possible ceasefire. According to market reports, these gains have swelled despite months of on-and-off negotiations that have yielded, at best, mixed signals. Investors, ever wary, remain on edge, torn between optimism and the hard reality of continued fighting.
Meanwhile, the European Union has been pressing ahead with its own plans, independent of any immediate outcome in Miami. On December 23, 2025, European leaders finalized a provisional agreement to ban Russian gas imports by the end of 2027—a move that effectively redraws the continent’s energy map and leaves a trail of stranded assets, including the infamous Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. These subsea behemoths were early casualties of the war, sabotaged in late 2022, with Nord Stream 2—an $11 billion project—never even certified for use.
Some had speculated that a peace deal might one day resurrect these pipelines and restore Russian gas flows to Europe. But as CNBC reports, such a scenario remains deeply contentious. The European Council and Parliament’s new regulation will phase out all Russian pipeline and liquefied natural gas imports by autumn 2027, though exceptions exist for Hungary and Slovakia in emergencies. The Danish Energy Agency has granted permission for preservation work on Nord Stream 2’s damaged sections, but as of now, no restoration has begun. Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told CNBC that repairing the pipelines could cost about $1 billion, and that one undamaged line remains potentially operational—though its future is shrouded in uncertainty.
Before the war, Russian gas accounted for about 45% of European consumption; in 2025, that figure is estimated at just 13%. The Russia–Ukraine gas transit agreement expired at the end of 2024 and was not renewed, further complicating the region’s energy dynamics. While Germany’s struggling industries might be tempted by the lure of cheaper Russian gas, political and ethical considerations loom large. Poland has called for the pipelines to be dismantled entirely, and Ukraine, which once benefited from transit fees, would be outraged by any move that seemed to reward its invader.
As Europe eyes energy independence, the United States is eager to fill the gap, hoping to boost its liquefied natural gas exports. Meanwhile, Russia has deepened its energy ties with Asia, notably through the Power of Siberia pipeline to China. Analysts like Tancrede Fulop at Morningstar note that, despite falling gas prices and the allure of a peace dividend, the EU’s new legislation makes a rapid reintegration of Russian gas highly unlikely.
Back on the ground in Ukraine, the war’s toll remains heavy. On December 22, President Zelenskyy warned of possible "massive" Russian strikes on Christmas, lamenting his country’s shortage of air defense systems. "The number one issue was air defense: the protection of our cities, villages and communities, especially on the 23rd, 24th and 25th," he posted on X. Ukraine is working on a contract with the U.S. to procure several dozen Patriot systems, but delivery and manufacturing delays mean reliance on European allies, such as the UK and Germany, persists for now.
Even as negotiations continue, violence has not abated. On December 22, a Russian general, Fanil Sarvarov, was killed in a car bomb attack in southern Moscow—a stark reminder of the war’s reach. Russia’s Investigative Committee spokesperson, Svetlana Petrenko, said, "Investigators are pursuing numerous lines of inquiry regarding the murder. One of these is that the crime was orchestrated by Ukrainian intelligence services." Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone operators reported targeting Russian soldiers traveling on horseback near the front lines, a sign of the increasingly desperate tactics employed as both sides suffer equipment losses and battlefield attrition.
On the diplomatic front, the U.S. has at times sidelined Ukraine’s European allies, focusing on direct talks with Moscow and Kyiv. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, cited "slow progress" in the staggered negotiations and accused some European states of "extremely harmful, malicious attempts" to torpedo peace efforts. Yet, both U.S. and Ukrainian representatives, including Witkoff and lead Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov, have insisted that Ukraine remains "fully committed to achieving a just and sustainable peace." Russian advisor Kirill Dmitriev described the Miami talks as "constructive," while asserting Russia’s own commitment to peace.
Elsewhere, the European Union continues to back Ukraine financially, transferring an additional €2.3 billion in aid in December to support the country’s recovery and public administration. The EU has also sanctioned two Russian members of the judiciary for human rights violations, barring them from travel and freezing their assets.
As the year draws to a close, the prospects for peace remain tantalizing but uncertain. The Miami talks have inched the process forward, but the core issues—security, territory, and the broader geopolitical order—are far from resolved. For now, Ukrainians brace for another holiday under threat, while diplomats, investors, and ordinary citizens alike hold their breath, hoping that this time, the promise of peace might finally become reality.
