Valentine’s Day is usually a time for sweet gestures, heart-shaped boxes, and bustling businesses, but this year, the reality for chocolate lovers and local merchants in San José comes with a twist. Despite a dramatic drop in global cocoa prices since last year, U.S. consumers are facing even higher chocolate prices, while local businesses in San José are preparing for a busy but cautious Valentine’s Day amid recent safety concerns.
According to market research firm Datasembly, chocolate prices in U.S. retail stores jumped 14% between January 1 and the first week of February 2026 compared to the same period last year. That’s on top of a 7.8% increase during the same window in 2025, making this year’s holiday confections a pricier treat than ever. The paradox? The cost of cocoa—the key ingredient in chocolate—has actually plummeted nearly 70% since Valentine’s Day 2025.
So, what’s going on? The answer, as always, is a mix of global economics, local realities, and a dash of human behavior. Cocoa prices soared to record highs in 2024 after drought and crop diseases devastated yields in West Africa, which supplies more than 70% of the world’s cocoa. But as weather conditions improved in Ivory Coast and Ghana, and as Ecuador and other countries ramped up production, the supply of cocoa rebounded. J.P. Morgan’s analysis notes that this surge in supply has helped push cocoa prices down, but the effects haven’t yet trickled down to the consumer level.
Chris Costagli, a food expert at NIQ, explained to the Associated Press that the rising price of chocolate discouraged many consumers, which in turn prompted manufacturers to use less chocolate in their products or to shift toward other sweets, like gummy candies, to keep prices in check. In the U.S., retail chocolate sales climbed 6.7% in 2025 compared to the previous year, but that growth was driven almost entirely by price hikes—actual units sold fell by 1.3%. "If the customer is still willing to pay that higher price, do we really lower the price?" Costagli remarked, highlighting the complicated calculus facing chocolate makers.
But it’s not just cocoa and consumer demand driving up the price of those heart-shaped boxes. Last year, the U.S. government imposed tariffs averaging 15% on cocoa-producing countries, making imported cocoa even more expensive. Though these tariffs were lifted in November 2025 for cocoa and other raw materials like coffee and spices, tariffs of 15% or more still apply to chocolate products imported from the European Union. According to the Federal Reserve, these tariffs contributed significantly to the price increases seen across American shelves.
And even as cocoa prices tumble, chocolate manufacturers aren’t necessarily reaping the benefits right away. Many companies, including giants like The Hershey Co., operate under long-term contracts that lock them into paying higher prices for cocoa than what the market currently offers. As Costagli explained, "It’s like gas prices. Even when oil prices drop, you don’t see it at the pump immediately because companies have to use up the oil they bought at higher prices." The chocolate market is notoriously volatile, and manufacturers are wary of lowering prices too soon, especially with unpredictable weather and shifting demand always looming.
Mondelez International, which owns brands like Oreo, Cadbury, and Toblerone, raised its global prices by 8% in 2025 to offset the spike in cocoa costs. In Europe, where price increases were even steeper, the company saw a significant drop in sales volume and responded by lowering prices in some markets, such as the United Kingdom and Germany. "We have learned that certain price levels are very important, and that’s why we’ve already made adjustments to put our products at the right price point," Mondelez CEO Dirk Van de Put told investors in February. However, Van de Put noted that Mondelez has no plans for price cuts in North America, where both price hikes and sales declines have been less dramatic.
Interestingly, the U.S. chocolate market has seen growth at both ends of the spectrum. Economy brands—like Whitman’s and some store brands—have attracted budget-conscious shoppers looking to trade down from mass-market favorites. At the same time, the super-premium segment, featuring names like Ferrero Rocher, Justin’s, and Lindt Excellence, has also grown. These high-end brands were less aggressive in raising prices, since their products were already positioned as luxury items. As Costagli put it, "It’s given the aspirational shopper that little nudge they need to trade up. If they wanted a better product, a better experience, organic, fair trade, whatever it was, now’s the time." Meanwhile, those feeling the financial pinch found greater savings by trading down than in years past.
Back in San José, the mood among local businesses is one of cautious optimism. Valentine’s Day remains a crucial date on the retail calendar, with many shops in areas like San Pedro Square and Japantown expecting a boost in profits. But recent violent incidents have cast a shadow over celebrations. On Valentine’s Day 2025, a young man was tragically stabbed to death by teenagers while celebrating with his girlfriend in the Santa Row area. More recently, during Super Bowl weekend, two men were fatally shot and others injured in downtown San José.
Jasmín Velázquez, who works at a café in Japantown, emphasized the importance of safety for both residents and visitors. "Japantown has been a very safe, family-friendly community where everyone knows each other, and it’s important that people who come here to visit feel just as safe when they’re here," she said. Police spokesperson Jorge Garibay acknowledged that, despite contingency plans and a strong law enforcement presence downtown, "San José is not immune to violence." He urged the community to remain vigilant, as violent acts are unpredictable.
City officials are responding with both immediate and long-term safety measures. Councilman Anthony Tordillos, who represents downtown San José, outlined plans to improve lighting on stretches of Santa Clara Street and other main roads, as well as to increase police and law enforcement support during nighttime hours. Authorities are also reminding residents and visitors to make safe choices—if you’re drinking, don’t drive, and consider one of the many transportation options available to get home safely.
For now, Valentine’s Day in San José and across the U.S. is a story of contrasts: chocolate is more expensive than ever, even as cocoa prices tumble, and local businesses are gearing up for a busy holiday while keeping a wary eye on public safety. As customers weigh whether to splurge on a luxury truffle or opt for a value brand, and as city leaders work to keep celebrations safe, one thing’s for sure—this Valentine’s Day, a simple box of chocolates carries more meaning (and cost) than ever before.