Seoul’s vibrant Myeongdong district was alive with the sound of rolling suitcases, chatter in Mandarin, and the unmistakable hum of commerce as the New Year dawned. The reason? A remarkable surge in Chinese tourists choosing South Korea over their once-favored destination, Japan. According to data from Chinese aviation analytics firm Hangban Guanzha, South Korea emerged as the top international travel destination for Chinese tourists during the New Year holiday stretching from December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026. This period saw a whopping 1,012 flights from mainland China to South Korea, nearly matching pre-pandemic levels at 97.2% of 2019’s traffic, reported Caixin and Hong Kong’s Sing Tao Daily.
Thailand and Japan trailed in the rankings, with 862 and 736 flights respectively. But the real eye-opener was the 30% jump in Chinese travelers to South Korea compared to the same period last year, bringing the total to 331,000 between December 30 and January 5, as per the Civil Aviation Data Analysis System (CADAS). In contrast, travel to Japan plummeted by 33% year-on-year, with only 258,000 Chinese visitors, while Thailand saw a 14% dip to 285,000.
This dramatic shift in travel patterns is no accident. Tensions between Beijing and Tokyo have been simmering, especially since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks in November 2025, hinting at possible Japanese intervention in the event of a Taiwan contingency. Following these comments, the Chinese government began urging its citizens to avoid trips to Japan. The impact was immediate and pronounced: as demand for Japanese holidays waned, South Korea quickly filled the void.
Chinese media outlets have been quick to note this trend, highlighting South Korea not only as the top choice for tourists overall but also as the most preferred overseas destination among Chinese university students. Meanwhile, young working professionals in their 20s and 30s are increasingly looking to Vietnamese cities like Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi for their getaways. Nevertheless, Japan—long the darling of Chinese holidaymakers—has clearly fallen out of favor, at least for the time being.
The numbers tell the story. From January to November 2025, about 5.09 million tourists from mainland China visited South Korea, according to The Asia Business Daily. With the so-called "balloon effect"—where suppressed demand for one destination inflates numbers elsewhere—industry watchers estimate that Chinese arrivals in South Korea could soar to as many as 7 million in 2026 if current trends persist.
On December 29, 2025, the first day of visa-free entry for Chinese tourists, Seoul’s Myeongdong shopping area was bustling with group travelers from China, as captured by The Korea Economic Daily. For 28-year-old Mao Xin, who arrived in Seoul with friends, the decision to skip Japan this year was clear. "With tensions between China and Japan high, we just didn’t feel comfortable going there. South Korea feels welcoming and exciting," she shared, echoing the sentiment of many of her compatriots.
This influx of Chinese visitors has been a boon for South Korean retailers, especially in popular shopping districts like Myeongdong. Brands such as Musinsa, Daiso, and convenience store chain CU have rolled out the red carpet, eager to capture the attention—and spending power—of these new arrivals. The sight of Chinese tourists lining up at Korean beauty stores, snapping up trendy apparel, and filling baskets with household goods has become commonplace once again, a welcome return to pre-pandemic days for many in the retail sector.
Retailers aren’t the only ones benefitting. The broader South Korean economy stands to gain from this tourism renaissance, with hotels, restaurants, and entertainment venues all reporting increased business. After years of pandemic-induced slumps and travel restrictions, the streets of Seoul and other major cities are once again alive with international visitors—most notably, Chinese tourists eager to explore and spend.
But what’s driving this preference beyond geopolitics? For many Chinese travelers, South Korea offers a familiar yet distinctly different experience. The country’s pop culture—think K-pop, K-dramas, and street fashion—has long captivated Chinese youths. Add to that the accessibility of direct flights, the appeal of visa-free entry, and a sense of safety in the current political climate, and it’s no wonder South Korea is enjoying its moment in the tourism spotlight.
Meanwhile, Japanese tourism officials are left grappling with a sharp decline in Chinese visitors. Once the number one choice for Chinese holidaymakers during peak travel periods, Japan now finds itself relegated to third place. The reasons are clear: political tensions, government advisories, and a general unease among Chinese travelers about how they might be received. For Japanese retailers and the broader hospitality industry, the loss is keenly felt. Many had banked on a robust recovery in inbound tourism following the pandemic, only to see hopes dashed by diplomatic disputes beyond their control.
Thailand, too, has seen its share of Chinese tourists shrink, albeit less dramatically. The 14% year-on-year decline is notable, but not as steep as Japan’s. Still, with South Korea’s meteoric rise, the competition among Asian destinations for Chinese tourist dollars has never been fiercer.
It’s not just students and young professionals driving these trends. Families, business travelers, and even retirees are looking to South Korea as a safe, convenient, and culturally rich alternative to Japan. The Korean government, for its part, has seized the opportunity, streamlining visa processes, improving tourism infrastructure, and ramping up marketing efforts to ensure visitors feel welcome and valued.
Looking ahead, industry analysts warn that the "balloon effect" could become a lasting feature of the regional tourism landscape if Sino-Japanese relations remain strained. While some hope for a diplomatic thaw that might eventually restore Japan’s appeal, others believe South Korea’s newfound popularity is here to stay—at least for the foreseeable future.
For now, the streets of Seoul are bustling, Korean retailers are smiling, and Chinese tourists are making the most of their holidays. The shifting tides of geopolitics have redrawn the Asian travel map, at least for this New Year, and perhaps for many more to come.